It’s Raining Opinions on Drought State : Water: Some officials say brimming reservoirs and other factors indicate the six-year spell is over. But others say it’s still too early for rosy declarations.

Umbrellas have become as much a necessity in Ventura County recently as a beach chair.

Precipitation since Oct. 1 in the Conejo Valley, the foothill communities and the area’s mountainous region already exceeds normal rainfall for the entire year, and, for the first time in seven years, Lake Casitas may spill before the rainy season is over.

So is the drought over in Ventura County? It depends on whom you talk to--and where you live.

Officials in water districts that serve much of the west county, including Ventura, Fillmore and Santa Paula, say brimming reservoirs, quickly-filling underwater basins and three years of plentiful rainfall indicate that six years of drought have ended. But water czars for five other cities--mainly in the east county--say it is too early to make any rosy pronouncements.

Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Moorpark, Camarillo and Oxnard get water from the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California through the Calleguas Municipal Water District. MWD water is drawn from the snowpack runoff and Northern California reservoirs that are not out of the drought yet, Calleguas General Manager Donald R. Kendall said.

“You can’t categorically say the drought is over,” Kendall said. “Right now, the snowpack looks pretty promising. But if it all of a sudden dries up and doesn’t rain again, it won’t be looking as good.”

County residents also should not expect relief in the form of lower water bills any time soon. MWD directors are contemplating a rate hike that would raise Calleguas customers’ bills an average of $3 a month, Kendall said. And other county water suppliers say they have no intention of lowering water rates as supply becomes more abundant.

“We have costs to operate our system and those have to be paid for,” said Ventura City Councilman Tom Buford, chairman of the city’s Utilities Committee.

Storms out of the Pacific and the Northwest sent rainfall totals above average almost immediately after the rain year began Oct. 1. But powerful back-to-back systems that arrived in Ventura County after the first of the year pushed totals to above average for the entire year in many areas.

Runoff from the storms has filled the county’s three main reservoirs nearly to capacity. Casitas Lake, a source of drinking water for much of the west county, is 87% full, said John Johnson, general manager of the Casitas Municipal Water District.

If the county gets hit by a few more big storms--a strong possibility with the historically wet months of February and March still ahead--the lake may spill over its dam for the first time since 1983, officials said. The lake, which holds 254,000 acre-feet of water, was only half full two years ago.

Lake Piru and Matilija Lake--both of which spilled after last year’s heavy storms--are already discharging water because they are so full, officials said.

But the best indicator that the drought has ended locally is the rapid rise in underground water tables, said Fred Gientke, general manager of the United Water Conservation District. Underground basins are usually the last--and slowest--to recharge after extended dry periods, Gientke said.

Basins that supply water to residents and farmers in Piru, Fillmore, Santa Paula, Ventura, Oxnard and Port Hueneme are nearing capacity after reaching all-time lows in 1990, Gientke said.

But the most critical basins are the Fox Canyon aquifers below the Oxnard Plain, which supply much of the water used by farmers to irrigate crops on the fertile plain.

Well measurements taken at the lower and upper aquifers on Dec. 23 show the water level is rising quickly, Gientke said. The upper aquifer alone has risen 40 feet in the past year, he said, which is about 66% of its capacity. Readings scheduled for this week, which will include runoff from this month’s storms, are likely to be dramatically higher, he said.

“We have soaring ground water levels, and that to me is an indication that locally, in United’s district, the drought is over,” he said.

But Kendall and other water managers for the state’s aqueduct system warn that even with the recent series of storms, the drought cannot be declared over in California.

The state’s 155 major reservoirs have only refilled to two-thirds of the normal supply for this time of year, according to the state Drought Center in Sacramento. It could take two years to refill those reservoirs, officials said.

“It’s too early to tell for sure,” Kendall said. “We have to wait until April to see what the runoff levels are.”

Complicating matters is lack of consensus on what constitutes a drought. The definition varies depending on whether you talk to a meteorologist, a water district manager or a public official.

Last year, National Weather Service meteorologist Terry Schaeffer, based in Santa Paula, was criticized by some water officials for declaring the drought over locally after torrential rains in February. And there are those, like Lowell Preston of the county’s water resources and development department, who believe the drought, for practical purposes, will never end because of the county’s semiarid climate and growing population.

“This area is always short of rainfall,” Preston said. “We are out of immediate trouble, but we could be right back in trouble again if it stops raining. We always have to keep that in mind.”

No matter what its definition, some water officials fear the psychological effect on the public of declaring a drought over. United’s Kendall said that although his district’s customers have easily met voluntary cutbacks of 10% in the past two years, wasteful habits could return when people believe water is plentiful.

“The data would indicate that is exactly what people will do,” Kendall said. “Researchers will tell you that water conservation has a short memory.”

People may revert to their water-guzzling ways, but the price they pay for it won’t be any cheaper just because supply is more plentiful, officials warn.

The rate increase sought by MWD will be used to finance improvements to the state’s water system, including building new reservoirs to increase storage capacity, Kendall said. Ventura’s Buford said the city is not likely to throw out its tiered rate system, in which residents pay progressively steeper prices when more water is used, in part because the revenues it raises will help build facilities to provide the city with a long-term water source.

Johnson of the Casitas district said his board also is unlikely to lower rates.

“Water by itself does not generate revenues needed to operate the district,” he said. “We have to sell the water and we need money to pay our operating costs.”

Selling the idea that a drought is still on becomes more difficult with every forecast, officials agree.

But when the public understands how the local supply is intertwined with state resources, it becomes less bewildering, said Ventura County Supervisor John K. Flynn, an expert on local and state water issues.

“I know the public says there are a bunch of water bureaucrats out there whose paycheck depends on saying the drought is not over,” Flynn said. “And I can understand that. But Southern California will always have to be very concerned about its water supply.”

County Rainfall

Back-to-back storms earlier this month have pushed average rainfall for the year above normal in several parts of Ventura County.

Rainfall Rainfall Normal rainfall Location since Oct. 1 since Jan. 1 for year Camarillo 14.11 8.93 13.30 Casitas Dam 22.65 14.23 23.38 El Rio 12.93 8.05 15.10 Fillmore 19.17 11.71 18.79 Moorpark 15.12 10.75 14.75 Ojai 24.59 17.30 21.52 Upper Ojai 24.24 15.42 23.67 Oxnard 12.57 7.61 14.59 Piru 19.54 13.36 17.35 Santa Paula 17.19 10.66 17.54 Simi Valley 15.66 10.16 14.49 Thousand Oaks 16.59 11.62 15.38 Ventura Govt. Center 14.32 9.21 16.09