What Will Clinton Achieve in First 100 Days in Office?

What one thing will President Bill Clinton accomplish in his first 100 days, and why? The Times asked 10 historians and political scientists. *

Doris Kearns Goodwin

Historian

With some luck, he’ll have that national- service college-loan program in place.

*

Robert Dallek

Professor of history, UCLA

There are two things that Clinton can do--recreate a sense of hope and . . . (establish) a new beginning. And he has to give it substance. What does he intend to do about the debt, the national-health care program? He needs to lay out a specific agenda.

*

Betty Glad

Professor in government and international studies, University of South Carolina Getting those in major industries and the health industry together and working out some sort of collaboration on curtailing the costs of various kinds of tests and drugs. There will also be some movement toward insurance for people who are not employed and uninsured.

*

Stephen Skowronek

Professor of political science,

Yale University I think it’s time to get beyond this (idea of 100 days). If Clinton is smart, he will back away. It’s not so clear that doing everything quickly is doing things well or even doing things that can be sustained.

*

Rogers M. Smith

Professor of political science,

Yale University He has an exceptional opportunity, because Congress is so deeply concerned to prove that gridlock can be ended. But Clinton is not likely to hit the ground running. He doesn’t have enough people in place. And he is finding that some of the issues he wanted to make front-burner items are complicated. I think Clinton wanted to push health-care reform first and foremost, because that would lower health costs and help the deficit situation. I still think that will be the big emphasis during the first 100 days.

*

James MacGregor Burns

Senior scholar , Jepson School of Leadership Studies , University of Richmond

I don’t think he’ll be able to do much, because the system does not allow that much action. The big test for Clinton will be during the first year. For the big things, like balancing the budget, he needs time and congressional support.

*

Kathy B. Smith

Associate professor of politics,

Wake Forest University His health-care proposals, in some form, will be accomplished, because of the mood of the country and because of the skills Clinton (has) to build a coalition and also (because of) the feeling of Congress that they are on trial and have to produce.

*

Daniel T. Rodgers

Professor of history, Princeton University He will rearrange the tone of the presidency. He will make it more democratic, more populistic. The danger will be that he will slip into the problems that beset Jimmy Carter.

He will send a new tax bill through Congress to do something about the deficit. It will not be a dramatic victory, because the forces of inertia and special interests in tax politics are so great.

The last thing he’ll do is convene a high-level group of doctors and public- policy masters to try to break through the cost/health-insurance quandary. That would be unprecedented. In the several times that health-care reform has come up--it has been on the political agenda since maybe 1917--there has never been such a high-level presidential gathering. If he’s skillful, he will get a medical- insurance package out it.

*

James David Barber

James B. Duke professor of

political science and public policy,

Duke University One possibility is for a strong move against the deficit. That would be a challenge to a lot of rich people. But that would be a challenge to him--he would have to come down, and down, and get close to the middle folks and not just the super rich.

He came out for democracy all throughout the world, about organizing democracies around the world. That is a possible real movement in his foreign policy.

*

Larry J. Sabato

Professor of government,

University of Virginia Economic restructuring and health-care reform.

It would be impossible to complete health-care reform in the first 100 days. But you can lay out the outline for a solid plan. The country is as focused as Clinton is right now, and he’s smart enough to take full advantage.