Dornan May Make ’96 Run for President : Politics: The combative conservative congressman says he probably won’t campaign for reelection--a move that would set off a scramble for his seat.

Conservative Orange County Congressman Robert K. Dornan said Monday that he is “leaning against” a campaign for reelection next year so that he can dedicate all of his energies to a possible run for president in 1996.

Dornan (R-Garden Grove) said he will make a final decision on a bid for the White House later this year. But in the meantime, he has scheduled an appearance next month before the state Republican Party in New Hampshire, host of the presidential campaign’s first primary.

Dornan said his decision about whether to enter the race will not necessarily be based on whether he can win the White House. But in an interview Monday, he added: “I’m not kidding myself here. It has to be a serious (effort) and influence the debate in a constructive way without hurting my friends.”

House members have traditionally made obscure presidential candidates, however, and Dornan would enter an emerging field of Republicans already filled with well-known faces. Those said to be considering the race include former New York Rep. Jack Kemp, former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney and Sens. Robert Dole (R-Kan.) and Phil Gramm (R-Tex.).

“If Bob Dornan does this, he is obviously taking on a prodigious effort,” said Ken Khachigian, a Republican political consultant from San Clemente who worked on the national campaigns of former Presidents Ronald Reagan and George Bush.

Khachigian said Dornan is a strong campaigner and would have a natural voter base. But he added, “If Bob were sitting here now, I would say it would not be easy. This is a very difficult task.”

Bob Nelson, an Orange County Republican political consultant and critic of Dornan, predicted that the congressman could gain a national spotlight if he runs “because I think he will always be outrageous and vituperative.” But Nelson also said he believes that Dornan is motivated by a desire for more attention and financial contributions.

“My first reaction is that it’s most likely a fund-raising ploy to enable him to build a larger fund-raising list,” Nelson said. “My second reaction is that he started his career really as a television commentator and rabble rouser and . . . it’s probably frustrating for him to not get the kind of media attention he would like. So this is a chance for him to gain a lot of national attention for himself.”

Dornan, an eight-term House incumbent known for his outspoken and hawkish politics, said he has strong friendships with his potential GOP opponents in the presidential race. But he said his primary campaign would differ from other Republicans’ because he has been the most aggressive attacker of Democrat President Clinton and he has the strongest credentials on conservative social issues such as abortion and homosexuality.

Unlike previous Republican candidates who emphasized social issues--Pat Robertson in 1988 and Pat Buchanan last year--Dornan also said he has experience as an elected official.

“I have the edge; I have a broad outreach on social issues. None of them have been further out on social issues,” Dornan said, sizing up the potential opponents. “On taxes, we’re all similar. I think what it comes down to is which one of these people can carry the battle best to the other camp.”

Dornan gained national attention during the 1992 presidential campaign when he raised unsubstantiated suspicions about a trip Clinton made to Moscow when he was in college. Dornan also complained about the Democratic candidate’s role in organizing protests against the Vietnam War.

Dornan, who celebrated his 60th birthday Saturday, said he is also confident that he could raise enough money to be competitive. The congressman has compiled a national mailing list that made him one of the top 10 fund-raisers in the House last year and the only one to achieve that status with less than 5% of the funds coming from political action committees.

Dornan’s announcement comes at a time when Orange County Democrats and moderate Republicans are promising an unprecedented effort to target the outspoken conservative congressman for defeat next year.

But Dornan said that while he may not run for reelection next year, his decision does not stem from the threats by political opponents. He said he is confident he could win reelection if he runs. But Dornan said he would resign, instead, to spend full time campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire.

“I think it would be the rarest of all possibilities if I decided to go for another term,” he said. “I’ll make that decision in a few months: do I run (for president) as a sitting incumbent or do I run as a former member who has been elected eight times?”

If Dornan did not seek reelection, his decision would be certain to set off a major scramble for a coveted seat in Congress. His district contains a majority of Democratic voters and, since reapportionment in 1990, is more than 50% Latino.