Russian Republics: Heading for a Slow Spinoff? : Autonomy: Regions have backed a national referendum, but only to ensure stability so they can continue the process.

So what if Tatarstan sits smack-dab in the middle of Russia? So what if its oil runs only through Russian pipelines and its factories need Russian coal to run?

That doesn’t keep this wealthy province of 3.6 million from spearheading the movement among the patchwork of Russia’s 88 regions and republics to break up the Russian Federation.

Just as the Soviet Union split into 15 countries, the nation of Russia--the biggest of the former Soviet republics--now faces the danger that its component parts will spin off into still smaller independent states.

“Russia is finished,” said Rafik Abzanov, a spokesman for the nationalist Tatar Public Center, a popular movement. “There was the socialist camp and what happened? First Eastern Europe went, then the Soviet Union fell apart and the next step is that the autonomous republics of Russia leave.”

Those are frightening words for Moscow, particularly on the eve of the April 25 referendum assessing popular confidence in President Boris N. Yeltsin. Russian politicians and the press have warned repeatedly that the vote carries the danger of spinning Russia apart, if regions refuse to hold the referendum or put their own questions on the ballot.

But if Tatarstan is any indication, the referendum will go fairly smoothly, even in such rebellious pockets as this.

Russia will not fall apart in one fell swoop.

It is, instead, drifting apart. Tatarstan’s leaders see the Kremlin relinquishing control over its vast domain as a slow, peaceful process--and that, they now say, is the best way.

“Instead of saying, ‘Destroy Russia at any cost,’ now, on the contrary, everyone is talking about retaining the Russian Federation and economic ties,” said Vasily Likhachev, Tatarstan’s vice president. “The republics have felt their responsibility at this critical moment and are acting as creators.”

Initially, the reaction to the referendum in many Russian regions was that it was Moscow’s problem, not theirs. Why should they spend money on balloting or distract farmers during sowing season?

The prospect also arose that the referendum, rather than bolstering Yeltsin’s position, would serve only to show that the Kremlin could not claim to control Russia outside Moscow’s city limits. It was just such a power vacuum at the top that helped trigger the Soviet Union’s breakup, with the three Baltic republics leading the way.

This time, Tatarstan could have spurred Russia’s collapse. Last year, Tatarstan’s leaders were so intent on greater independence that they even conducted a referendum in which 61% of voters opted for sovereignty.

Some nationalists here consider the republic already independent, ending a Russian occupation that began in 1552 when Ivan the Terrible conquered the largely Muslim region.

But now, Likhachev said, “Our president says that you can shout three times that you’re sovereign, but then you still come back to work and you have to think about feeding the people. Lots of people like the idea of cutting ties with Russia, but what’s the point when the whole world is moving toward integration?”

So last week, Tatarstan’s leaders decided to allow the referendum to be held on their territory, although they are not especially encouraging people to vote. The thinking is utterly pragmatic: Whatever leads to greater stability is better for all concerned, and if the referendum can resolve the power struggle in Moscow, it is worth a try.

Also, the alternative to Yeltsin is probably Vice President Alexander V. Rutskoi, a Russian nationalist likely to crack down on Tatarstan. “We think that if Rutskoi comes to power, the attitude to the autonomous republics will be much tougher,” said Valentin Mikhailov, a moderate deputy in Tatarstan’s Parliament.

The rest of Russia’s autonomous republics appear to have reached the same conclusion. On Wednesday, their leaders met with Yeltsin and emerged saying they would all hold the referendum--a critical victory for Yeltsin because Russia’s Parliament has decreed that he must win 50% of all registered voters, rather than a simple majority of those who vote.

Aside from political expediency, Mikhailov said that Tatarstan has softened its drive for independence because the Kremlin has turned into too light-handed a master to bother rebelling against. “The hand of Moscow is felt as weak, decrepit, unable to do anything,” he said. “We don’t want a dictatorship, but there is not even normal management.”

He recalled that last year, Tatarstan decided that it would pay only 4 billion rubles of the 17 billion rubles it owed Moscow in federal taxes. The Kremlin did not even impose any sanctions. Instead, it went ahead with 66 billion rubles in credits it had promised.

Tatarstan is also making good progress on gaining rights to sell more of the 25 million tons of low-grade oil it produces each year. Last year, it kept the hard-currency proceeds from 2 million tons of oil, and it is now pushing to control 10 million.

Tatarstan would like even more independence.

But it is carefully choosing not to push Yeltsin in these pre-referendum days. And Tatarstan residents appear willing to give Yeltsin a lukewarm vote of support.

“It will take a long time to get a new president, and we don’t have that time,” said Olga Simavina, 20, an architecture student. (In more than a dozen interviews outside Kazan’s central children’s goods store, about half the Tatarstan residents said they would support the Russian president.)

Likhachev said the “subjects of the federation”--the catchword for the 88 republics, provinces and regions that make up Russia--”want the referendum to lead to creation and not destruction.”

The destruction will happen gradually, said Abzanov of the Tatar Public Center. He predicted that Russia will devolve into three or four separate countries--perhaps one in the Far East, one in the Volga region, one in the Ural Mountains and one in Siberia.

Likhachev agreed, saying, “Until now, Russia has been a federation in form but unitarian in content. Now, the issue of regionalization is very relevant. Tatarstan is becoming the center of a Volga-Ural region, with its own economic network and ties.”

This is the dissolution of the old, centralized, monolithic Soviet state that former President Mikhail S. Gorbachev and Yeltsin have preached as the prerequisite for a normal economy based on trade ties rather than ministerial orders.

Like other regions, Tatarstan is energetically pursuing new links with its neighbors, right down to a recent agreement with the Crimea; under that pact, when Tatarstan eventually has its own tankers, it will be able to send oil out through Crimean ports.

In 1990, when Tatarstan began defying Moscow with its demands for sovereignty, the Kremlin responded much as it had when Lithuania demanded independence from the Soviet Union. It tried to impose an economic pinch on Tatarstan, preventing the inflow of needed supplies--a move that naturally boomeranged by reducing Tatarstan’s supplies back to the rest of Russia.

Then, Moscow appeared to have given up. But the republics have also remained measured in their demands for independence, limiting them largely to economic claims, nothing radical enough to earn scapegoat status.