Boon Foreseen in Conversion of El Toro Base : Economy: Newport Beach touts studies predicting county will gain $1.1 billion a year and thousands of jobs if air station becomes commercial operation. Critics remain skeptical.

Hoping to bolster its argument that the closure of the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station will help rather than hinder the local economy, Newport Beach officials planned to unveil studies today promising an economic boon if the military base is converted into a commercial and cargo airport.

Predicting that a commercial El Toro airport could serve 8.4 million passengers annually by the year 2005--matching the current capacity of John Wayne Airport--one study conducted by Economics Research Associates of Los Angeles concluded that conversion would infuse $1.8 billion annually into the economies of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

Most of that money--$1.1 billion--would stay in Orange County, since it would be the home base of the airline operations, airport concessions, ground transportation systems, fuel dealers, crews and air cargo companies. The county would also benefit directly from the spending of passengers who stayed in local hotels and dined in local restaurants, the report states.

As the total $1.8 billion is recycled through the economy, the regional impact is expected to reach $3.78 billion each year, with about $1.57 billion of that amount churning through the Orange County economy.

Jobs created directly by the airport would number about 5,860 by 2005.

“This is the biggest economic generator since Disneyland,” said Kenneth J. Delino, Newport Beach deputy city manager, who also serves as executive director of the Orange County Cities Airport Authority, which commissioned the study.

According to the ERA study, the cost to convert the facilities at El Toro base to commercial use would total $750 million, considerably less than the $1.8 billion estimated in a 1990 study funded in part by the Federal Aviation Administration and the Federal Highway Administration.

The earlier study also estimated the cost of land acquisition at $5 billion, but Newport Beach city officials argue that the land should be donated as a “public benefit” by the federal government for use as an airport.

A second study looked at how much income could be generated for the entity that would eventually control the land.

Assuming that the base operations would phase out as commercial use increases, the site would have a net income of $42.9 million in the plan’s second year.

Beginning with air cargo and ground leases for some of the space at the base, the second-year operations also would include income from leased space for a jail or prison, retail stores, a medical clinic, golf course, low- to moderate-income housing and a train maintenance depot for the Orange County Transportation Authority.

In the sixth year of operations, the airport would be in full use and the site would generate about $92.3 million, according to the study, and grow to $240 million in the 17th year.

The U.S. Department of Defense has estimated that it will take the military six to seven years to completely move off the site if the base is closed.

A spokesman for Orange County Supervisor Thomas F. Riley, who is opposing the closure of the El Toro base, downplayed the studies. While unfamiliar with their contents, Ken Bruner said they sound like studies that were commissioned to reach a predetermined conclusion.

But Newport Beach officials hope that the studies will help persuade other cities to join them in the upcoming fight to turn the base into an airport.

Once united in support of joint military-commercial aircraft operations at El Toro, the airport authority--made up of six central and north Orange County cities including Newport Beach--is now in disagreement over whether El Toro should cease operating as a military base.

The early disunity threatens to undermine the efforts of Newport Beach, which will argue before the federal Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission that the conversion will improve the local economy.

Anaheim city officials have not taken a formal position on whether the base should close, although the city is expected to join the pro-airport campaign if the base closes.

Of the four remaining members of the airport authority, Garden Grove and Santa Ana oppose the departure of the Marines. Stanton and Yorba Linda officials said they are still neutral at this point.

However, the Newport Beach deputy city manager predicted that the other authority members would be swayed by the economic and environmental reports to be presented today.

“Maybe I am naive, but I have this feeling that the truth will prevail,” Delino said.

Some local economists have forecast that Orange County stands to lose about $500 million annually if 6,668 jobs at El Toro were to disappear, combined with the 4,453 already scheduled to end through the closing of the Tustin Marine Corps Air Station.

“When you get 10,000 or 15,000 low- and moderate-income privates and corporals who are doing all their shopping in a (post exchange), I really question that,” Delino said.

While support from the member cities of the airport authority would show that Newport Beach is not alone in arguing for the base closing, the coastal city has other backing. Among those supporting an additional airport for Orange County are some of the county’s top business leaders who are working behind the scenes to keep El Toro on the base closing list, and the 1,500-member Airport Working Group which is made up of Newport Beach and Costa Mesa residents.