Budget Projections From Fantasyland : Disney, Anaheim, School District Are Worlds Apart

The proposed new Disney resort in Anaheim will cost area schools $2.5 million. Or maybe $91 million. Or perhaps $200 million. Or maybe . . . Well, write your own number on a piece of paper, drop it and a couple of others in a hat and pull one out. You too can be a forecaster.

Anyone reading the massive, multi-volume environmental impact report for the proposed project can be forgiven for wondering where each side came up with its figures. For instance, the Anaheim City School District estimates that it could cost it as much as $80 million by the year 2010 to educate the students generated by the project--a theme park called Westcot, three new hotels, acres of lakes and landscaping. By contrast, Disney puts the figure at $1.8 million. That’s not a chasm. That’s a Grand Canyon.

The disparity in figures for the Anaheim Unified High School District is not quite as big, but it’s still mammoth: $11.4 million by district estimate; less than $1.5 million by Disney’s calculation.

The discrepancies are nothing new when it comes to big projects. Several years ago the Garden Grove school district and the city of Santa Ana battled in court over an apartment project’s impact on the schools. Eventually, the two sides compromised, which would be nice to see in this case as well.

Both Anaheim school districts, which account for more than 40,000 students from kindergarten through high school, say they support the project, as do we. One district superintendent said he’s impressed with the project’s “state of the art” work on new sewers, transportation, parking and freeway off-ramps. He’s not as impressed by the analysis of the impact on schools.

Actually, both sides have been following a typical opening scenario. Disney notes that state law requires the developer of a new commercial project to pay 27 cents per square foot for schools. It says it will pay, even though its project “will have no direct impacts on schools” because employees will commute from places they already live. The city, a beneficiary of the project, is siding with Disney.

The schools, however, want to shake the money tree as hard as they can. State law bars them from using the new money to correct old problems, like overcrowding. Still, as one attorney involved in the dispute said, “Lawyers can be very creative” in interpreting whether a problem is old or new.

Witness the creativity with numbers on both sides--starting with the cost of a new school. Disney estimates assume schools in urban areas are being built on five-acre sites, at a cost of $1 million an acre for the land. The school districts say the state requires a 10-acre site, and the cost is $1.75 million per acre. Right away, there’s a $12.5-million difference between Disney’s estimate of $5 million and the school districts’ tally of $17.5 million. From there, the disparities in figures escalate.

Disney argues that it’s not building new homes, so it won’t be responsible for putting new students in the schools. Nor will those who build the project move to Anaheim and put their children in the schools, Disney claims.

The last thing this project needs is to get tied up in the courts, which is where these differences could lead. Disney is living up to its justified reputation as a tough negotiator, and the school districts have laid out “wish lists” that probably can stand trimming. The Anaheim planning commission will take up the environmental impact report later this month, followed by the City Council. There’s still time for both sides to talk, and settle these wildly different cost estimates.