New Study Raises Hope of Saving O.C. Air Bases : Military: Cox, Dornan say Navy has responded to attacks on its cost estimates for Tustin, El Toro closures.

Two Orange County congressmen said Thursday that the Navy, whose cost estimates for base closings have come under sharp attack, has prepared a new memorandum that addresses the possibility of keeping open the El Toro and Tustin Marine Corps air bases and instead shutting down Miramar Naval Air Station in San Diego.

In a letter to Admiral Frank B. Kelso, acting secretary of the Navy, Reps. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach) and Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove) said they had just learned of the existence of the memorandum, copies of which they requested “since it could have a direct impact on the base closure list, not to mention two bases in our Congressional districts.”

Cox said the Navy’s memorandum was prompted by a request from the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission, which has been told that reshuffling Marine aviation units among Southern California bases--closing El Toro and Tustin in the process--would cost almost $1 billion more than the Navy has projected.

The Navy review is the first concrete sign that the commission is questioning the Pentagon’s decision to close El Toro, but it falls far short of victory for those trying to save the Orange County base.

According to a commission source, the Navy is not necessarily changing its original recommendation about El Toro. But it is, the source said, answering a question that has been raised by the commission: What if the El Toro Marines were kept where they are, and other bases were closed?

“It’s plain that both the Pentagon and the base closure commission are taking a thoroughly fresh look at this recommendation,” said Cox, who has repeatedly pressed for a more detailed breakdown of the figures used by the Navy to arrive at its estimates.

The Navy had not responded to the congressmen’s letter by late Thursday, Cox said, but he added, “I understand from the Pentagon that our information is accurate.”

In their letter to the Navy, the congressmen said it was their understanding “that the Navy has prepared a memorandum discussing the possibility of closing Miramar Naval Air Station rather than Marine Corps Air Stations El Toro and Tustin. According to our sources, MCAS Beaufort in South Carolina would also be closed under this scenario.”

Despite the uncertain nature of the information Cox and Dornan are seeking, local officials were cheered by the latest development, and said they are optimistic that federal officials are seriously reconsidering the last-minute decision to add El Toro to the list of 10 California bases targeted for closure as part of the current cutbacks in defense spending.

“We will sleep better tonight,” said Supervisor Thomas F. Riley, whose office has been at the forefront in the fight to save El Toro.

Laguna Hills Councilwoman Melody Carruth, a member of a South County coalition of cities and residents opposing the base closure, said the Navy’s memo shows that the commission is interested in receiving accurate information before a final decision is reached.

“In the end, we may not prevail, but at least they are being a little more careful in their analysis,” said Carruth, whose organization has said the decision to close El Toro was based on flawed data.

If the Navy is looking at other possibilities, its findings would have to reach the commission by May 21, when the panel is scheduled to decide whether to add additional bases to the closure list. By July 1, the commission must decide which of those bases to keep open and which to close.

Officials at the San Diego County base, meanwhile, said Thursday that they have heard nothing about the Navy report.

“As far as I know, the (base realignment) committee on station has not seen anything from Dornan or Cox or from the Navy offering up any of those options,” Miramar spokesman Doug Sayers said. “If Miramar’s future were being discussed or planned for, we would be part of that process on some level.”

Two years ago, the commission added 35 bases nationwide to the Pentagon’s recommendations--including the Long Beach Naval Shipyard--and wound up closing none of those added. Four bases from the Pentagon’s original list, however, were saved.

As it did in the 1991 round of base closings, the commission will almost certainly add numerous bases to the list in response to arguments that Defense Department choices for closure are ill-chosen.

Congressional sources said it is unlikely that the commission would reverse its 1991 decision to close Tustin, but the base is being included in studies since a home must be found for the squadrons stationed there.

“There are many permutations possible,” Cox said. “It’s just as likely that Tustin helicopters would be relocated while El Toro could remain open.”

Under the Pentagon’s current base-closing plan, Marines from El Toro and Kaneohe Bay in Hawaii would be reassigned to Miramar. The helicopter squadrons from Tustin also would go to Miramar. Most of the Navy’s units now stationed at Miramar would be sent to Lemoore Naval Air Station.

Since the base closing list and the projected costs were made public, commanders at El Toro did their own estimates and concluded that the cost associated with closing El Toro totaled $1.268 billion, instead of the $340 million budgeted by the Navy. The Pentagon has not officially commented on the Marine estimates.

Following up on the El Toro study, Orange County officials on Thursday sent the commission an outline of their arguments why the base should remain open. They listed among their reasons “significant” errors in determining the base’s military value, and the fact that costs were “grossly underestimated.”

The Orange County report also surmises that the computer models were “manually and subjectively manipulated,” after initial computer runs showed that Lemoore and Miramar would be better candidates for closure.

Instead of closing El Toro, the county suggested that Miramar be shuttered. The report also recommended that squadrons from Tustin and Kaneohe Bay be relocated to Camp Pendleton, or that they be sent to March Air Force Base, which is scheduled to lose its active duty personnel if the realignment plan is approved.

Orange County officials were buoyed by the disclosure made by Cox and Dornan.

“This shows that the federal government has really made an effort to look at places that could be cut back and cut down, not just in California. I am very impressed,” Board of Supervisors Chairman Harriett M. Wieder said. The possible base closures have “sure made everybody’s life miserable in Orange County,” she added.

“When I heard about the (Cox-Dornan) letter, I got excited,” said Riley. “When I saw it I got even more excited. This is an acknowledgment that the effort we are making is on target. I am very hopeful from this.”

Laguna Hills Councilman Randal J. Bressette was more cautious, but nonetheless encouraged.

“It’s a very positive sign that says that everyone is beginning to reconsider whether El Toro is the best base to close.”

Times staff writers Kevin Johnson and James Bornemeier contributed to this report.