Public Loses Faith in Clinton Economic Plan : Times Poll: But Americans doubt GOP or Perot can do better. Trust in Washington falls to record depths.

Americans have lost faith that President Clinton’s economic plan will produce sustained economic prosperity or deficit reduction--but doubt that the Republican Party or Ross Perot has better answers, according to a Los Angeles Times Poll.

Indeed, the overwhelming impression left by the survey is of substantial dissatisfaction with all the choices on the political menu: President Clinton, the Republican opposition in Congress and Perot. Confidence in Congress and trust in Washington generally have fallen to unprecedented depths, the poll found.

These numbers underscore both the hurdles that Clinton faces as he tries to rebuild a base of public support and the risks to politicians in both parties as the threat of gridlock in Washington resurfaces. “It’s not fashionable to use the malaise word anymore,” Republican pollster Bill McInturff said, “but people are feeling lousy.”

Clinton may be cause and victim of that broad discontent. His overall job approval rating, though up slightly from surveys by other polling organizations earlier this month, remains weak. Just 42% of those polled approved of his performance as President and 49% disapproved. (At this point in their first terms, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and George Bush all had positive approval ratings of at least 2 to 1.) For his handling of the economy, Clinton received even lower marks: Just 36% approved and 52% disapproved.

To some extent, Clinton suffers from the same dynamic that felled Bush: Voters are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the nation’s direction and taking it out on the man in the Oval Office. On the most basic measure of public sentiment, just 24% of those polled said the country is moving in the right direction and 68% said it is off on the wrong track. That constitutes a substantial decline since February, when the public split 45% to 45% on the right direction-wrong track question.

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, surveyed 1,474 adults nationwide from June 12 to June 14; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Ominously for Clinton, discontent over the nation’s direction has increased dramatically even though the public’s views about the economy have not substantially deteriorated since February. In the new survey, 52% of those polled said the economy is in a moderate or serious recession, 26% said the recession is over and 18% called it mild. Those numbers are essentially unchanged since February. They suggest that some of the growing pessimism about the country’s direction may be linked not to darkening evaluations of the economy but to anxiety over the performance of Clinton and Congress.

When those who expressed an unfavorable impression of Clinton were asked why, a 31% plurality said he is not fulfilling his campaign promises--a sentiment that runs strongly among Democrats and Republicans; liberals and conservatives; Clinton, Bush and Perot voters in 1992; blacks and whites. Fourteen percent said that he is weak, and 1 in 10 cited his push to allow homosexuals to serve in the military.

In another sign of trouble, Clinton’s approval rating among blacks has fallen from 87% in February to 53% in the new survey; that decline is more than double his overall slip since the last Times Poll. In recent weeks, Clinton has clashed with black leaders over his decision to withdraw the nomination of C. Lani Guinier for the top civil rights job in the Justice Department.

For Clinton, the silver lining in the survey is the clear sense that voters have not closed the book on him. Only about one-fourth of those polled said his early difficulties “show his presidency is in long-term serious trouble;” two-thirds said his problems “are due mainly to inexperience and he will probably improve with time.” (The most common reason given for holding a favorable impression of Clinton is the belief that “he needs more time.”)

Of those surveyed, 59% said Clinton is qualified for the job and just 35% disagreed. Perhaps most important, just 4% of those surveyed said Clinton is “primarily to blame for the country’s economic” problems, and 53% still pinned the blame on the Ronald Reagan and George Bush administrations.

Although those numbers suggest that Americans are still open to Clinton, the poll also suggests that it will not be easy for him to reclaim the identity he sought during his campaign as a reformer committed to change. Five months into his presidency, many voters have grown extremely skeptical that Clinton can--or even intends to--deliver change.

To a striking degree, voters polled rejected Clinton’s portrayal of his economic plan and accepted the critical characterizations of Perot and the GOP. Just 28% described Clinton’s economic program “as a bold, innovative approach to fixing this country’s economy;” 53% dismissed it “as a return to the tax-and-spend policies Democrats have been criticized for in the past.” Republicans labeled the plan as “tax and spend” by almost 8 to 1; those who voted for Perot in 1992 described the plan in those terms by 3 to 1.

Likewise, despite Clinton’s protests to the contrary, just 21% of those surveyed said they believe that the President’s proposed new taxes will be targeted to deficit reduction; two-thirds said the taxes will “end up going mostly toward increased government spending.”

A 53%-39% majority said they still consider Clinton’s economic program fair--but those numbers have declined substantially since February, when two-thirds of Americans viewed the program that way. Overall, voters were divided on the plan, 43% for to 41% against, but that is down dramatically from 60%-26% approval in February; independents viewed the plan negatively in the latest poll by a 45%-39% margin.

Other measures underscore the erosion in Clinton’s standing. By 58% to 37%, those polled said they do not have a clear idea of where Clinton hopes to take the country. Among voters, 31% said they consider Clinton too liberal, up from 21% in August. (Only 2% in the new survey said they consider Clinton too conservative and 32% said that his views are “about right.”)

Asked whether Clinton has “the moral authority to serve as commander in chief of America’s armed forces” those polled gave the President only the most equivocal endorsement, with 48% agreeing and fully 43% saying that he lacks such authority.

And the expectation that Clinton will improve his performance is tempered by doubts about his ability to deliver tangible results. Americans are more pessimistic than in January when asked whether they expect the unemployment situation and the economy generally to improve over the next three months. When Clinton took office, Americans, by 50% to 36%, said they thought that he could bring about a sustained period of economic prosperity, a Times Poll found. In the new survey, though, just 39% said they are optimistic that he will produce lasting prosperity; 49% said they doubt that he will.

In January, Americans expressed little optimism that Clinton would be able to reduce the federal budget deficit. Today they are just as skeptical, with 38% saying they expect major reductions and 52% calling reductions unlikely. Likewise, just 29% of those surveyed said they believe that he will “substantially reduce” the influence of special interests and 56% said they are dubious.

On health care, those polled are only marginally more optimistic: One-fifth said Clinton’s forthcoming health care reform package is likely to produce better care for their family; one-fifth said they expect their coverage to decline and almost half said they expect no change.

But the harsh assessments of Clinton have not produced meaningful movement toward the opposition--either the GOP or Perot. Overall, partisan identification has changed little since last summer, with about one-third of Americans now calling themselves Democrats, one-third independents and only one-fifth identifying themselves as Republicans.

Though Americans give Clinton low marks for his economic performance, they still prefer him to the GOP: Respondents chose the President over Republicans in Congress, 44% to 31%, when asked who has better ideas for improving the economy. And, by 43% to 40%, they hold an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party.

Republicans have narrowed the gap with the Democrats on the question of which party can do a better job of handling the nation’s most important problems, but that is more because of Democratic slippage than Republican gains. In January, those surveyed named the Democrats by 43% to 27% on that benchmark measure. In the new survey, just 34% said Democrats can best handle the country’s biggest problems and 32% chose the Republicans. The percentage that said neither party can handle the most pressing problems stands at 19% in the new survey--up from 14% in January.

That disaffection from both parties should provide fertile ground for Perot, but he also faces substantial doubts. In the survey, voters said by 47% to 39% that they have a favorable impression of the maverick billionaire. That is better than the 45%-45% split between voters with a favorable and unfavorable impression of Clinton. But Perot’s standing has slipped from his 52%-33% favorable rating last October.

Those polled gave Perot a 45%-40% edge over Clinton when asked who has better ideas for solving the nation’s economic problems. But that is less than a ringing endorsement, given the negative assessment of Clinton’s economic performance. And just 34% said Perot has “the kind of stable temperament a President needs,” whereas 51% disagreed. Overall, 39% of those polled said they would not consider voting for Perot if he runs for President again; 18% said they would support him and 38% said they would consider it.

Looming over all of the expressions of discontent with the combatants in Washington is an avalanche of discontent about the political system itself. Faith in Congress has dropped to the lowest level ever measured in The Times Poll: Just 9% of those surveyed said they had a great deal or a lot of confidence in Congress. A little more than one-third expressed only “some” confidence in Congress and fully 52% said they have “very little” confidence.

Likewise, faith in Washington’s capacity “to do what is right” also has slipped to an all-time low. Just 13% said Washington will do the right thing most or all of the time; 54% said it will do so only some of the time and 31% said “hardly ever.” Both of these measures have declined since Clinton took office.

In perhaps the most dramatic measure of impatience with the political system, Americans leaped at an idea that would allow citizens to bypass Congress and the White House and make decisions directly. Asked if they favored the idea of passing “federal laws through a national referendum system” that would allow Americans to vote “up or down directly” on major issues of public policy, almost two-thirds of those polled said yes and just 25% said they did not like the idea.

* PRICES REMAIN STABLE: The consumer price index rose a slight 0.1% in May. D1

President’s Handling of Economy

In a turnaround from February, more Americans call the Clinton economic program a return to tax and spend economics than a bold, innovative plan to fix the economy. Still, Clinton’s economic policies remain more popular than those of his Republican congressional critics.

How would you describe Clinton’s approach to fixing the economy? February poll Bold, innovative: 50% Tax and spend: 35% Neither: 4% Don’t know: 11% June poll Bold, innovative: 28% Tax and spend: 53% Neither: 5% Don’t know: 14% *

Who do you think has the better ideas for solving the country’s economic problems? Clinton: 44% Republicans: 31% Neither/both: 18% Don’t know: 7% Source: Times Poll

How The Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,474 adults nationwide by telephone from June 12-14. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the country. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that listed and unlisted numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results also can be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.