By Delay, Deception and Dissimulation : A clearly unchastened Saddam Hussein is showing that he remains a master schemer

U.S. officials have been putting out the word that this country and its allies are ready to use force if need be to compel Iraq to cooperate with international inspections of its weapons facilities, as required by U.N. Security Council resolutions. In many cases--most notably in regard to its chemical weapons production--Iraq has refused inspectors access to specific plants while ignoring demands to destroy certain equipment.

This apparent effort to preserve one of its most feared weapons capabilities is part of a larger Iraqi determination to rebuild its military base, a House foreign affairs subcommittee staff report finds. Battlefield defeat in the Persian Gulf War or not, postwar embargo or not, a clearly unchastened Saddam Hussein is showing that he remains a master schemer. By delay, deception and dissimulation he will seek to preserve and reconstitute as much of his war-making potential as possible. At the same time, and with some success, he has appealed for sympathy in the Arab world with the claim that he is the victim of a U.S.-led Western plot.

The subcommittee staff report finds that Iraq has been able to repair much of the damage done to its tanks and planes that survived Desert Storm; that it is producing its own artillery and short-range missiles; that by covert sales of oil through Iran and Jordan it is earning the hard currency it needs to continue its illicit buying of weapons overseas.

None of this makes Iraq an imminent threat to its neighbors, although the House report does suggest that Iraq could “re-emerge as the dominant military power in the region in a very short order.” That conclusion seems to ignore the great effort Iran is making to build up its own military power--including what experts see as a large and perhaps advanced nuclear program. The point, though, is not that Iraq has to be objectively stronger than Iran in order to again make trouble in the area. To be a serious threat it need only be stronger than Saudi Arabia and the smaller states of the western gulf.

Iraq’s actions and plans call for three responses. The United Nations must remain firm on the issue of inspections and be ready to put muscle behind its earlier warning of “grave consequences” if Iraqi cooperation isn’t quickly given. The countries and companies that are violating the trade embargo against Iraq ought to be publicly identified--not all that hard, if there’s a readiness to let the chips fall where they may--and themselves put on warning. Finally, visible preparations ought to be made for taking international military action if all else fails. Iraq’s challenge is to the international political will, not just to the United States or the West alone. Washington should emphasize that point, and the United Nations should stand firm on its principles.