Deng Believed Dying; Beijing Transition Seen

Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader for the past 14 years, is believed to be dying, and some preparations are already under way in the Chinese political hierarchy and the People’s Liberation Army for the transition that will take place after his death, according to U.S.-based China specialists.

“The reports have been consistent that his health is on a steady downward trajectory,” one U.S. intelligence official said last week. Deng is now said to be virtually incapacitated and unable to meet with even his closest political associates.

The prospect of Deng’s death has led to renewed uncertainty in Washington about the future leadership of China, the world’s most populous nation and, over the past couple of years, its fastest-growing economy.

The 1976 death of Mao Tse-tung touched off an immediate, intense and intricate power struggle in which, within a month, Mao’s widow and three other senior Communist Party leaders known as the “Gang of Four” were arrested and imprisoned for life. However, U.S. China experts don’t believe the divisions within the top political ranks are as deep now as they were then.

Deng’s already-frail health is said to have taken a sharp turn for the worse over the past few months. American medical experts who have kept track of Deng’s physical condition believe he had some form of stroke late last year or early this year. He is also known to have a progressively debilitating form of Parkinson’s disease and some heart and kidney problems.

According to U.S. intelligence reports, Deng, who is nearly 89 years old, entered a Beijing hospital in April and stayed there until approximately the beginning of July. He was released but with no sign that his health had improved, sources said.

Deng is fast losing his ability to converse or act, and only his own wife and children and a personal secretary are now permitted to see him. “He’s dying,” said one American China expert with close connections to the U.S. intelligence community.

It is not clear how long Deng could last in this weakened state, but estimates range from a few weeks or months to as much as a year.

Last spring, when Deng was first hospitalized, some Chinese troops were placed on a heightened alert. And since then, Western military specialists have noticed PLA units taking a number of unusual steps, such as changes in schedules and added training in crowd-control techniques, that they believe could be preparations to help ensure political stability during a coming leadership succession.

Asked last week about the reports that Deng is dying, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington replied that China’s official Communist Party newspaper, the People’s Daily, had reported recently that Deng is in good health. Over the past month, both a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman and Deng’s daughter, Deng Lin, have denied reports that he is ailing.

Deng has not appeared in public for nine months. Last week, he failed to attend funeral ceremonies for one of his oldest and closest associates, Gen. Li Da, who was Deng’s chief military aide during the Sino-Japanese War and the Chinese civil war.

Western intelligence officials are now watching to see whether Deng appears in public next month at Beidaihe, a Chinese seaside resort where the country’s political hierarchy regularly gathers in August to decide top-level political and personnel matters.

“The last time I saw Deng, in 1989, he was not in good shape,” former U.S. Ambassador to China James R. Lilley said last week. “Mentally he was OK, but he was shaking, he couldn’t hear, he was walking slowly. And this is now 3 1/2 years later.”

Since assuming power at the end of 1978, Deng has guided China’s economic reforms while generally keeping the lid on political change.

Although he officially retired several years ago, he has remained the ultimate source of political authority in China. As recently as last year, Deng personally launched China on a remarkable new drive for rapid economic growth.

If Deng were to die now, some U.S. China specialists and analysts believe the Chinese Communist Party might put together some form of collective leadership, with no single dominant figure.

Others caution that the Chinese regime may be unable to function well without someone playing the role of chairman, particularly since authority in China is still based much more on personal ties than on laws or a constitution.

At the moment, American China specialists and government analysts put three or four leaders above all others in the jockeying for succession:

Vice Premier Zhu Rongji, the economic czar who has in recent months been amassing ever-greater influence; President and party General Secretary Jiang Zemin, a leader with more titles than personal authority, and Premier Li Peng, who is believed to have suffered a heart attack in April and whose political fortunes are thought to be declining.

One other possibility is Qiao Shi, a shadowy figure who was for years the party’s security chief and is now a member of the Politburo Standing Committee. While considered cautious and self-effacing, Qiao retains some strong ties to Chinese reformers.

The prospect of Deng’s death and of an impending change of leadership in China may be one of the factors that has prompted the Clinton Administration to move cautiously in its early dealings with Beijing.

In May, President Clinton decided to renew China’s most-favored-nation trade benefits for another year, even though during his campaign he had criticized the George Bush Administration for similar renewals. However, Clinton also approved a series of conditions, long rejected by the Bush Administration, under which China would lose the MFN benefits if it fails to make progress on human rights by next year.

The Administration is now preparing to send a series of emissaries to China in an effort to iron out continuing frictions with Beijing over arms exports, human rights and China’s trade practices.