NEWS ANALYSIS : Mideast Accord Puts U.S. Back in Driver’s Seat

Secretary of State Warren Christopher’s success in brokering a cease-fire in the latest round of Arab-Israeli hostilities vaults the United States back into its traditional place in the Middle East peacemaking effort--the driver’s seat.

Christopher’s predecessor, James A. Baker III, had hoped to engineer things so that Washington could work behind the scenes. The United States would merely get all sides together, push them into negotiations and let chemistry--and self-interest--drive the talks.

But Christopher concluded otherwise shortly after the Clinton Administration took office, when he had to intervene to head off pressures for U.N. economic sanctions against Jerusalem over Israel’s expulsion of more than 400 Palestinian activists.

Last week’s effort by the secretary only reaffirms his earlier conviction, and with it the old saw that nothing gets accomplished in the Middle East peace process without the active intervention of the United States--and its willingness to put its own credibility on the line.

Washington--in this case, Christopher--not only brokered Saturday’s cease-fire between Israel and Iranian-backed guerrillas in Lebanon but also took on the role of guarantor to all sides in the dispute, in effect taking responsibility for ensuring that everyone abides by the new accord.

Having been conspicuously at the wheel during the cease-fire talks, Christopher is likely to have more clout in pushing the longer-term peace negotiations off the dime when he travels to the region today for a new round of shuttle diplomacy, analysts said.

If nothing else, the intense negotiations between Christopher and Arab and Israeli leaders over the past 3 1/2 days have refocused the attention of all sides on the broader peace process--and revived some of the momentum that Christopher wants.

But a recent series of attacks by Hezbollah and Israel’s harsh retaliation have heightened the bitterness on both the Israeli and Arab sides, making it even more difficult for the various governments to agree to a long-term peace.

Christopher doubtlessly will be spending more of his time on the region as a result, being forced to take an increasingly direct role in shepherding negotiations at every turn. That leaves him more vulnerable if things go wrong.

Spending this past week negotiating a cease-fire was hardly what Christopher had in mind when he left Washington for Asia on July 22 on the first leg of a trip that was to end with some hurried but quiet talks in Middle East capitals.

The secretary had planned to spend five days in Singapore and then move on to Australia for talks concerning the U.S.-Australian military alliance. Then, after a stop in the Maldives, he would fly on to Cairo to help nudge the longer-term peace negotiations along.

Christopher’s Middle East advisers, led by former Baker aide Dennis Ross, had suggested the venture on the notion that the time was ripe for the United States to stir the pot a bit. The talks had been stalemated for months, and no real breakthrough seemed in sight.

But a few hours after Christopher arrived in Singapore, violence erupted in southern Lebanon and northern Israel, threatening to push the entire region dangerously close to war.

Traveling to the area to revive the long-term peace talks almost certainly would be futile. “He would have been spending all his time over there trying to arrange a cease-fire,” a senior aide said. “The peace process would have gotten lost.”

By Tuesday morning, Christopher had made up his mind: He would cancel the trip to Australia and the Maldives and fly back to Washington to consult with other Administration policy-makers. And he would launch an all-out personal effort to broker a cease-fire accord.

By 7 p.m. Singapore time, Christopher’s Air Force Boeing 707 was in the air, and the secretary was mapping out his plan. His first telephone call came in mid-flight--to ask Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri what it would take to end the fighting.

At 8:45 a.m. Wednesday, three hours after his plane landed at Andrews Air Force Base, Christopher called a meeting of his key Middle East advisers to go over the situation.

The outlook was mixed at best: None of the major players--Israel or its Arab neighbors--wanted to talk about the long-term peace negotiations as long as the violence was continuing, yet none of them wanted Christopher to cancel his trip to the Middle East.

Brokering a cease-fire seemed to be the only chance.

An hour later, the secretary began a series of telephone calls to each of the Middle East leaders that continued on and off--with some time to help deal with the situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina--through 2 a.m. Saturday, when the cease-fire agreement fell into place.

As in any negotiation, the role of mediator had its frustrations. With the Israelis and Arabs not talking, Christopher had to serve as go-between on virtually every point of the negotiations. Widely differing time zones kept the talks going around the clock.

Perhaps the bulk of Christopher’s calls were to Hariri and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Aides say the secretary also held extensive conversations with Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Shareh. Egyptian Foreign Minister Amir Moussa also was in the loop.

Unlike his earlier discussions with European ministers on the war in Bosnia, Christopher apparently pushed aggressively on the cease-fire effort. Personal relationships with the four key ministers also helped.

In the end, the United States came away with increased respect from the various parties. Syria, especially, had reason to feel good: Being treated as a key player gave Damascus new respect in the region.

And President Clinton’s deft praise for Syria during a press conference in midweek--although all but retracted a day later--was an unaccustomed experience for the Syrians. By week’s end, all sides were claiming victory--which may help keep the cease-fire intact.

How much staying power Christopher’s success will have is unlikely to be clear until after his week of shuttle diplomacy.

But whatever the outcome, Christopher is now clearly the driver. Both the success of the long-term peace negotiations and their possible failure are firmly in his hands.