Study Backs Airport Option for El Toro : Aviation: Regional study finds conversion wouldn’t hurt John Wayne facility. Report has been kept under wraps because issue is a political ‘hot potato.’

El Toro Marine Corps Air Station would make a good second airport for Orange County and would not compete with John Wayne Airport, according to a regional aviation study that has not been made public because the base’s projected closure remains a political “hot potato,” officials said Friday.

The general conclusions of the study, conducted by the Southern California Assn. of Governments to gauge the impact of converting existing military air bases to commercial use, have been known for several months, but the reports themselves will not be released until October, officials said.

“What I can tell you right now is that El Toro does work pretty well (as a commercial airport) and it does not affect John Wayne that much,” Southern California Assn. of Governments aviation planner Mike Armstrong reported Friday during a meeting of the agency’s aviation advisory committee. “El Toro would take most of its passengers from” Los Angeles International Airport, he said.

“There’s room for two medium-size airports in Orange County,” Armstrong told the committee. Having a second passenger airport “basically captures the passengers that live in Orange County, and prevents them from going to other airports in the region.”

Recognizing the issue’s political volatility, the Southern California Assn. of Governments staff pushed the El Toro portion of the regional report into the background.

“Because the process has become very highly politicized, we have kind of taken a little bit of a lower profile than we have in the past,” Armstrong told the committee, made up of the aviation directors of Southern California cities and counties. “We are kind of hanging on the sidelines, sort of waiting for the political dust to settle.”

Armstrong added that the staff was “not exactly sure” what to do with the El Toro study, given that it is “kind of a hot potato right now.”

Tim Merwin, Southern California Assn. of Governments’ chief aviation planner, emphasized the agency’s neutrality in the El Toro controversy, maintaining that the report is intended to help local governments with airport planning, if that is what they decide to do. But the decision to build an airport is solely their responsibility, he added.

John Wayne can handle up to 8.4 million passengers a year, but last year served 5.6 million passengers--far short of the estimated 13 million passengers who are believed to have originated their travel from Orange County, a number that is expected to reach 23 million by the year 2010. Those who did not fly out of Orange County directly are taking flights from Los Angeles and other nearby airports.

While the study’s conclusions would bolster the arguments of those who are lobbying for the conversion of El Toro to a commercial airport, its significance is being downplayed by several officials involved in the contentious debate over control of the base.

The Orange County Board of Supervisors is attempting to fend off demands by South County cities seeking a greater voice in deciding how the 4,700-acre base will be redeveloped. The county is claiming sole authority, and wants the role of the cities restricted to membership on an advisory committee.

“So much is up in the air . . . we haven’t even resolved the structure issue. We haven’t even left the starting blocks,” said Orange County Supervisor Gaddi H. Vasquez, who chairs the Southern California Assn. of Governments.

He added that any discussion about the agency’s air passenger demand analysis is still premature, and is only one of several studies that will be reviewed before conclusions are reached on whether a commercial airport will work at El Toro.

Vasquez also disputed a report that he had made the decision to postpone release of the report. Southern California Assn. of Governments Executive Director Mark Pisano said that in fact he made the decision, not Vasquez.

Lake Forest Councilwoman Marcia Rudolph, an El Toro airport opponent, said the contents of the report have been known for months, adding that the conclusions are not a surprise. But the fact that agency officials were dragging their feet “hoping some of the flak will not hit, I think is naive on their part.”

When first launched a year ago, the study set out to look at the impact on air passenger demand if military bases such as El Toro were placed on the closure list. But with the decision now made--except for final approval from Congress--Armstrong said the study would be refined in the next few weeks to note the latest developments.

Pisano said the Southern California Assn. of Governments had been reluctant to release the preliminary findings on El Toro because of the division in Orange County over whether the base should be closed. Since the decision was made July 1, he added, the staff has not had a chance to wrap up its work, but the final product would be available in October or November.

During a hearing in June before the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission, the Southern California Assn. of Governments staff presented an early version of their studies on Norton Air Force Base in San Bernardino County, which is scheduled to shut down in early 1994, and March Air Force Base in Riverside County, which was on the same list as El Toro. The El Toro portion was not presented to the base commission.