One-Two Knockout Punch : Politicians who are willing to stand up and offer reasonable solutions on taxes and immigration are at risk of being flattened by the voters at election time. It has happened with other issues.

In the San Fernando Valley, political careers rise and fall on single, divisive issues.

Here is some history--and a prediction that 1994 will repeat the pattern.

In 1980 Jim Corman, a senior congressman with the ability to secure the Valley its fair share of federal dollars, was drowned in a tsunami of sentiment against busing. In a heavily Democratic district, Republican Bobbi Fiedler, one of the founders of the anti-busing movement, walked right over him.

Assemblyman Jim Keysor lost his northeast Valley seat in 1978. Like many Democratic legislators, he stood on the tracks in front of a train called Proposition 13. At the same time, a Republican named Pat Nolan was swept into office with a group of right-wing Republicans across the state who backed Proposition 13--called the Cave Men of the Assembly because of their rigid adherence to conservative ideology.

In 1986, the death penalty, embodied in the campaign to oust Chief Justice Rose Bird, threatened to take down anyone who dared speak out against executions. Not wanting to put their careers into pine boxes, Democrats and Republicans from Agoura to Arleta conveyed that if they were called upon to throw the switch in San Quentin, they would oblige.

Is it about to happen again? You bet. Next year promises two killer issues--taxes and, especially, immigration.

The Valley Republicans who withstood the Bush debacle of 1992 should be OK. Because they make no attempt to lead or to govern or to provide any reasonable solutions to problems, only to toady to the fears of the intolerant, they should have a picnic attacking President Clinton’s tax increase and beating the drums on illegal immigration.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are once again standing on the tracks. The one-two punch of the tax increase and voter apoplexy over immigration could swamp any--and I mean any --Democratic candidate. To many voters “illegals” are the root of all evil.

“They” don’t pay taxes.

“They” are on welfare.

“They” are all in gangs.

“They” don’t speak the (our) language.

“They” are ruining our schools.

Most of this is hogwash, but immigrants make easy targets, especially in a bad economy in a place where many nostalgically long for the Valley of the ‘50s.

It’s ironic that the same people who complain about day laborers waiting for work on street corners at dawn also complain that “illegals” are on welfare. Which is it? It ain’t both; who would dare risk deportation by applying for welfare?

And while it is true that the government must pick up the cost of emergency health care, this does not justify the heated rhetoric alleging that “illegals” are somehow living high on welfare or food stamps.

This English issue is a bunch of hooey as well. If illegals are flooding our schools on the one hand, how then, on the other, can they be making no attempt to learn the (our) language?

Crime is a valid issue. We’ve got plenty, and we don’t have enough cops. We have a fundamental right not to live in fear. Undocumented immigrants who commit serious crimes should be deported--immediately. But simply blaming all crime on people with a different color skin is pointless and shameful and prevents us from attacking real public safety issues.

Because of the intensity of this issue, Democrats are going to be targets in 1994. Even “reasonable” proposals made by Sens. Diane Feinstein and Barbara Boxer to limit illegal immigration are going to be sideswiped by the xenophobic hate-mongering of the likes of GOP Rep. Elton Gallegly, who would deny citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants born here.

If anyone doubts the magnitude of this issue, look at the usually reasonable, compassionate Democratic Rep. Anthony Beilenson, who supports this measure as well.

The battlegrounds of the modern campaign are the crowded town meeting, where reporters eagerly await a candidate’s mistake, and the mailbox, where politicians deliver their cleverly crafted messages. In either forum there will be no room for reasonable debate on this issue.

Any politician with the slightest compassion for a human being seeking a better life for his or her family had better have a flak jacket, helmet and catcher’s mask and make a habit of reading the want ads.

The Valley has long been a graveyard for politicians seeking solutions to difficult problems. It has been a tropical paradise for those who exploited them.