2 Missions in Clinton’s Approach : Force: New deployment is designed to lay political solution before guerrillas and to protect American troops in Somalia.

President Clinton’s decision to send more U.S. troops to Somalia is designed to accomplish two complementary missions: To provide sufficient military presence to protect U.S. troops in Mogadishu and to help prod the Somali guerrillas into agreeing to a political solution.

The new force to be deployed will include two combat battalions, an aircraft carrier and two amphibious ready groups, 18 tanks, 44 Bradley fighting vehicles and four AC-130 gunships.

Despite the impressive array of firepower, however, the force will add only 1,700 combat troops to the area--along with 3,670 Marines to be stationed offshore--barely enough to handle the current situation, military analysts said.

As a result, officials said U.S. troops will cut back their efforts to isolate and capture fugitive clan leader Mohammed Farah Aidid and concentrate on restoring order and keeping supply lines open.

At the same time, U.S. officials said the Administration is launching a massive diplomatic effort to try to negotiate something of a truce between the United States and Aidid, bringing him back into the political process and--ideally--winning the release of the U.S. helicopter pilot he is holding.

“The military mission here is in support of the political agenda,” Defense Secretary Les Aspin told reporters Thursday night. “To carry out a military solution,” he said, would take so much money and time that it would be “beyond all reasonable expectation.”

Private military analysts hailed the move as judicious, given the President’s domestic political constraints. Retired Army Col. Harry Summers said the compromise solution was all that could be hoped for.

“It’s a no-win situation,” he said in a telephone interview.

But defense experts warned that, for all the President’s caution, the military mission he has laid out contains some serious risks, including the possibility that U.S. troops ultimately may suffer more losses and casualties before they finally pull out March 31, the deadline set by the President.

First, analysts said, there is no guarantee that, even with the Administration’s effort to change the incentives for Aidid, the Somali leader will cease his attacks on U.S. forces. Those attacks began after U.N. officials declared Aidid a pariah for killing 24 Pakistanis participating in the U.N. effort.

If Aidid continues his attacks, the United States will be forced into a new round of urban warfare, with more house-to-house fighting that would risk heavy casualties both for U.S. soldiers and Somali citizens. Experts said they doubt that Washington can sustain either prospect politically.

Despite the new influx of tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles, U.S. forces will have to overcome the widely held notion among Aidid supporters that the Americans are not as tough as they once had thought, experts said. Once, they were regarded as unchallengeable. Now that is changed.

Finally, not all the air power being sent by the Pentagon is suitable for operations in small geographic areas. Although the F-18 fighters from the two aircraft carriers can do substantial damage, using them would risk killing thousands of Somalis, hurting chances of a settlement.

“Substantial potential still exists for tragedy,” Raoul Alcala, a former Army strategist, warned in a telephone interview Thursday. “We shouldn’t think the risks are over.”

The Administration’s accompanying diplomatic initiative represents the most sweeping peace-seeking effort that it has made during the 10 months that the United States has been involved in Somalia.

There are these elements:

* The White House is sending veteran diplomat Robert B. Oakley to shepherd the effort from Mogadishu. Oakley served as President George Bush’s personal representative during the U.S.-run mission there from December to May and dealt with Aidid almost daily during that time.

* Oakley will work with Meles Zenawi, the president of Ethiopia, to establish a special international commission to “investigate” the United Nations’ complaints about the violence perpetrated by Aidid’s forces.

Western diplomats said that while the panel ostensibly will work to “resolve” outstanding issues, it actually is intended as a way to bring Aidid back into the negotiations to help rebuild a political structure in Somalia. They are counting on Oakley to make it work.

* The Administration is moving to enlist the aid of Meles and the presidents of three neighboring countries--Eritrea, Kenya and Djibouti--in an effort to craft “an African solution” to the Somali civil war. Several of these leaders have ties to Aidid’s clan.

It also will seek to involve the Organization of African Unity, a regional political group that already has offered its services to help mediate the Somali crisis.

Washington wants to arrange another Somali-wide “leadership conference” as quickly as possible.

But the diplomatic push is far from risk-free. There always is the chance that the negotiators may not be able to hammer out a workable political settlement by Clinton’s March 31 deadline--or that Aidid may wait until after that to resume his fight for power.

The force package that Clinton ordered deployed Thursday is essentially in four parts:

Troops: 5,300 more combat troops, bringing the total number of U.S. soldiers and Marines in Somalia and offshore to 10,400.

The units will include 1,000 troops from the 24th mechanized infantry division at Ft. Stewart, Ga.; 700 more soldiers from the 10th Mountain Division at Ft. Drum, N.Y.; and about 3,600 Marines from Camp Pendleton, Calif., and Camp Lejeune, N.C.

Armor: 18 M1 tanks, 44 M2 Bradley fighting vehicles, complete with combat service support units from Ft. Stewart, and 29 amphibious assault vehicles and 13 light armored vehicles for the Marines.

Ships: The nuclear aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln with an undetermined number of escort ships; the amphibious assault ships New Orleans and Guadalcanal with five supporting transports and landing-ships.

Aircraft: 58 strike aircraft based on the carriers; 103 Army and Marine helicopters and four Air Force AC-130H gunships, which carry precision-guided 105-millimeter howitzers and machine guns and can be used for ground support.

U.S. officials said that, with the addition of the units that Clinton ordered deployed Thursday, the total number of U.S. forces available for service in Somalia will rise to 20,715. However, that included 10,315 not classified as ground troops.

Fighting an Urban War

The high-tech U.S. forces have their hands full against an unsophisticated rag-tag army they seldom see. Surrounded by neighborhoods loyal to Mohammed Farah Aidid, the U.S. forces become easy targets.

INTELLIGENCE: A one-way street. Aidid’s forces are fiercely loyal. U.S. capabilities in satellite technology are minimized by an opponent who is spread in every nook and cranny of the city.

WEAPONS:

* RPGs (rocket propelled grenade launchers): Easy to obtain and conceal. Effective range: 450 to 600 feet.

* ZSU-23 (Antiaircraft guns): They were responsible for at least one of the downed U.S. helicopters Sunday.

* Remote detonated mines: The target does not need to come in direct contact with the mine. When the target nears the mine, the attacker merely presses a button from anywhere within sight.

SUPPLY LINES: The United States strongly suspects that Sudan and Iran are supplying training and weapons.

U.N. FORCES IN SOMALIA

The top 5 contributors: U.S.: 10,400* Pakistan: 5,003 India: 3,606 Italy: 2,672 Germany: 1,727 * Includes new units, Marines used as support.

EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. MISSION

1992 Nov. 25--United States offers its troops as part of multinational force. Dec. 4--United States announces 28,150 troops will be deployed in a short-term mission. Dec. 9--Hundreds of Marines land in Mogadishu to secure the capital’s airport and harbor.

1993 Jan. 19--The first U.S. casualty reported.

May 4--The United States hands over command of the Somalia operation to the United Nations. June 5--Twenty-four Pakistanis are killed and 54 wounded in one series of ambushes. June 12--The U.N. begins retaliatory raids against Aidid’s militia. July 12--An estimated 50 Somalis are killed in another raid by U.N. troops. An outraged mob kills four foreign journalists. Aug. 8--Four U.S. soldiers are killed, prompting President Clinton to dispatch the elite U.S. Rangers. Sept. 9--U.S. Senate passes a resolution urging Clinton to seek congressional authority for continued U.S. involvement. Sept. 28--Clinton says he wants a fixed date for the U.S. and U.N. to end their mission in Somalia. Oct. 3-7--At least 13 U.S. soldiers are killed, 90 wounded and six others missing or held captive. Clinton orders more troops and equipment.

*

Sources: Tim Mahon, Jane’s Information Group; Kenneth Katzman of the Congressional Research Service, author of “The Warriors of Islam: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.”