Strategists Say Umberg’s Bid A ‘Long Shot’ : Politics: Assemblyman’s biggest challenge to becoming state attorney general may be name recognition outside O.C. But key Democrats embrace him.

Every lawmaker takes a leap of faith now and then, but Assemblyman Tom Umberg is eyeing what could become a political free fall--a run for state attorney general.

Umberg, who announced plans to form a campaign exploratory committee last week, would enter the race as the sort of unseasoned long shot that rarely fares well in a statewide contest. After all, he has held office just three years. Outside his own Orange County district, Umberg is a virtual unknown. In the Capitol, he wields neither power nor much influence.

Yet several Democratic players have wrapped the 38-year-old lawmaker in a warm embrace heading into the 1994 campaign season, promising him the kind of money and strategic support that can push even a little-known candidate toward the front of the pack.

Treasurer Kathleen Brown, an expected gubernatorial candidate, calls Umberg a prototypal “new kind of Democrat.” Former state party chairman Phil Angelides has both privately and publicly urged Umberg to run, as have more than two dozen of his Democratic colleagues in the Legislature who have joined his exploratory committee. Even powerful Assembly Speaker Willie Brown has given his blessing.

What they see is a telegenic moderate who might add balance to a Democratic ticket that--with the likes of Brown, state Senate President Pro Tem David Roberti and Controller Gray Davis seeking higher offices--could tilt heavily to the political left.

“You have the usual crowd of liberals and you have to make sure you have someone who is centrist,” said Joe Cerrell, a Los Angeles-based political consultant. “If the guy can win in Orange County, he must be able to bring something to the ticket statewide.”

Cerrell and several other Democratic Party prognosticators believe that Umberg, who talks tough on law enforcement and supports the death penalty, might be a candidate who could reel in the so-called “Reagan Democrats” again being courted by the Republican Party. Umberg’s central Orange County district, despite Democrats holding a majority, helped put Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove) in Congress and elected conservative state Sen. Rob Hurtt (R-Garden Grove).

“He brings an ability to win on hostile turf to the table, and he’s an appealing, fresh face on the state scene,” said Darry Sragow, a Los Angeles political consultant managing Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi’s gubernatorial campaign. “Tom Umberg running for attorney general is something substantially more pragmatic than a page out of ‘Don Quixote.’ ”

Moreover, some strategists believe Umberg could put a dent in the Republican Party’s traditional lock on Orange County, a region that often gives GOP candidates the margin they need to win statewide. “There’s always a bit of provincialism,” Cerrell said. “I think Orange County voters would very much like to have one of their own in statewide office, even a Democrat.”

Umberg sports several qualities that could prove appealing in an era when political campaigns rely heavily on image and are waged mostly over the airwaves. He’s got youthful good looks, a wholesome family, lawyerly intelligence and a background in the military and law enforcement as an assistant U.S. attorney.

While he lacks name recognition and political experience, Umberg just might be able to capture the Democratic primary and knock off Republican Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren with the right handling and enough money, some strategists contend.

“On paper, he’s a good, attractive candidate,” said Robert Nelson, an Irvine political consultant. “He may lack name recognition, but if the best receiver on the team is a rookie, I don’t think it would deter the quarterback from throwing to him.”

Still, even some fans suggest that Umberg could have a tough time just winning the Democratic primary, where he is expected to face San Francisco Dist. Atty. Arlo Smith, who narrowly lost to Lungren in 1990. And a race against Lungren could turn into a rout if Umberg failed to raise enough campaign cash.

“I think it’s a long shot,” said one Democratic campaign strategist who has run several statewide races. “Tom is a fabulous candidate, but he has never run statewide. And I can’t remember the last time anyone beat a sitting attorney general.”

Republican stalwarts in Orange County, meanwhile, scoff at the notion that Umberg would fare well in the region, a traditional GOP bastion. “We know him,” said Thomas A. Fuentes, Orange County GOP chairman. “He is not some prophet from out of town, he is known by all his charlatan flaws. We know he is a liberal.”

Umberg’s statewide prospects could depend largely on money.

In a battle with better-known candidates like Smith and Lungren, Umberg will have to spend upward of $5 million during the entire campaign to put his name and face before California voters, his own strategists say. That could prove tough with potentially costly races for a U.S. Senate seat and the governor’s office sucking up what cash is available from Democratic donors already hit hard by the recession.

Umberg could also be hurt because Orange County politicians are not covered by the Los Angeles television market, which reaches 41% of the voters in the state. Lungren, meanwhile, has the power of the attorney general’s pulpit to capture media attention while Smith can tap the San Francisco market, the second biggest in the state.

“He is ‘Tom Who?’ when it comes to the state of California,” Fuentes said. “He suffers from the same Orange County media ghetto as other politicians in the county.”

To that end, Umberg has been trying to make inroads in the Bay Area. In recent months, he has captured headlines by pulling together special hearings on a disastrous spill at a Richmond chemical plant and discussing prison performance after a San Francisco woman revealed she was unable to get authorities to keep an inmate from harassing her via the mail.

Those issues, however, will probably prove insignificant come Election Day. Instead, the general mood of an increasingly cranky California electorate will play a big role, strategists say. If voters turn against Gov. Pete Wilson in a big way, it could cause a Democratic landslide that might even topple Lungren, the darling of GOP conservatives.

“Yeah, I think Umberg has a shot,” said Sal Russo, a Sacramento-based Republican political consultant. “A lot is going to depend on the climate in 1994. I think an incumbent Republican attorney general starts out as a strong favorite. As long as the governor’s race remains competitive and it’s not a Democratic sweep year, I’d expect Dan Lungren to win.”

For his part, Lungren said in an appearance in Orange County last week that he is ready to “take on whoever emerges” from the Democratic primary and doesn’t intend to underestimate the challenger.

Smith’s camp, meanwhile, is gearing up to hit Umberg hard by portraying him as a inexperienced liberal masquerading as a moderate. As proof, they point to high marks Umberg gets in performance surveys by labor organizations, environmentalists and groups like the National Organization for Women.

“He’s a bright young man, but he just doesn’t have enough demonstrable experience and achievements to qualify for this office,” said Marc O’Hara, Smith’s campaign consultant. “Tom Umberg has never been a leader. He took orders in the Army, in the U.S. attorney’s office and now he takes orders in the Assembly. The gulf of experience between these two candidates is as wide as the Yosemite Valley.”

Umberg’s strategists, however, hope to prove otherwise. They want to push Smith to the political left during the primary and Lungren to the right in the general election while Umberg occupies the middle ground.

Indeed, a primary battle against Smith could prove fortuitous, they say. “We want Arlo in the primary,” said George Urch, Umberg’s chief of staff. “Our worst fear is that Arlo has problems and drops out. He gives us a chance to run against a liberal Democrat and establish our name.”