Oxnard Council Adopts a Pessimistic Forecast for City Revenues : Finances: The officials reject a middle-of-the-road view of future fiscal conditions, expressing a bleak outlook on the economy and the state’s habit of diverting local funds.

Expressing no confidence that the recession will end any time soon, the Oxnard City Council on Tuesday adopted the bleakest of three economic forecasts aimed at bracing officials for continuing budget woes.

The gloomy outlook also underscored a marked distrust of state lawmakers, who have diverted more than $13 million of Oxnard’s revenues to schools and other state projects since 1990.

Dennis Scala, a financial planner who prepared the six-year report, recommended that the council base its spending plans on the “best-guess” fiscal prediction--a middle-of-the-road analysis estimating city revenues will bottom out by 1996 and show moderate improvement by 1998.

But the City Council rejected any hint of optimism, choosing instead to adopt the “pessimistic” scenario. That plan assumes revenues will decline through 1996, increase slightly in following years and not reach medium-level funding until 1999.

“I don’t see how we can go with best-guess,” Councilman Michael Plisky said. “I’m uncomfortable with it right now. I expect we’re going to get clobbered by (the state) next year.”

Councilman Thomas Holden agreed, saying it would be more prudent to adopt a blueprint that prepares for the worst.

“We’re not approving or disapproving how well you predict,” Holden told Scala.

Earlier this year, state lawmakers balanced the budget by diverting $2.6 billion from local governments to help pay for public education and other programs.

Oxnard officials subscribe to the six-year forecasts to help them with long-range budget planning.

Under the three long-term scenarios outlined Tuesday, the city would face deficits ranging from $1.8 million to $2.9 million next year. But the gloomiest forecast--which was adopted Tuesday--assumes that deficits would increase each successive year through 1999, mounting to $4.3 million.

The most optimistic proposal predicts a revenue increase of $200,000 in 1997 and a boost of up to $2.7 million by 1999. The best-guess forecast includes deficits each year, but declining to less than $1 million by 1999.

Scala told the council that the estimates in his report factor in several other potential budget impacts.

The city could lose $250,000 or more in fees each year if the Radisson Hotel falls into foreclosure, Scala said. And between $72,000 and $421,000 in matching funds would be needed for a federal grant the city is seeking to hire more police.

*

But, Scala said, the city could increase revenues by more than $300,000 a year if it agrees to make the Oxnard Community Center a privately run operation and adopts a plan to charge school districts the cost of providing crossing guards.

The city has an operating budget of about $60 million a year.

Mayor Manuel Lopez said Oxnard needs to know exactly how much it can expect in future revenues from the state each year.

“Otherwise, it’s very difficult to predict what will happen,” Lopez said. “Even if it’s a low amount, at least we’ll know that’s what we can count on.”

Before concluding the discussion Tuesday, the mayor asked how much money the state can legally divert from local governments.

“There is no limit,” City Manager Thomas Frutchey replied.