Hope for Regeneration : Ecology: Habitats will recover from the fires and return to natural state to again support endangered species, wildlife officials predict.

Tossing off earlier grim predictions, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service officials Tuesday were optimistic that shrubbery and wildlife would recover from damage during the recent fire.

“By and large, we believe that the effects of these fires will be negligible in that we hope and expect these areas to return to their original vegetative condition,” said Peter Stine, acting field supervisor of the agency’s Carlsbad office. “These areas will regenerate with the same mix of species and provide simple wildlife habitats.”

But also Tuesday, a new threat loomed as weather forecasters said rain probably would reach Orange County, where possible mudslides of burned-out hillsides, left barren by the fire, have been a major concern.

There is a slight chance of rain arriving tonight, with a 40% chance of showers Thursday.

“It looks like we’re starting to get into the rainy season,” said Curtis Brack, a meteorologist for WeatherData Inc., which supplies forecasts for The Times. “A major pattern is setting up where the storm systems will start swinging into California instead of moving inland over the Pacific Northwest.”

Meanwhile, fish and wildlife officials, speaking to reporters during a telephonic press conference from Carlsbad, provided their latest estimates on the environmental damage done by the fires.

All told, they said, 35,400 acres in Orange County had burned in the fires, including 7,700 acres of coastal sage scrub, about 16% of the county’s total. In addition, they said, 144 pairs of California gnatcatcher--19% of the county’s total population of the endangered bird--had died, been injured or were otherwise displaced by the blaze. And 394 pairs of the rare cactus wren--or about 25% of the county’s total--had been killed.

The estimates represented a significant improvement in the outlook for gnatcatchers and a bleaker assessment of the damage to cactus wren than those provided a week ago. Then, agency officials estimated that 30% of the county’s gnatcatchers and 15% of its cactus wren had been killed.

Regardless of the numbers, however, the environmental officials on Tuesday were quick to put a positive spin on the situation.

“Fire is a natural component of many of the ecosystems of Southern California,” Stine said. “It has occurred on a periodic basis, has always occurred and is likely to occur in the future. It plays an important role in regenerating the habitats as they grow, and at some point in time they will grow.”

In answer to questions, Stine and Larry Salata, a senior biologist at the agency, said they expected the damaged coastal sage scrub to sprout and renew itself within five to 10 years.

That in turn, they said, would provide suitable habitats for a new population of California gnatcatchers, cactus wren and other wildlife.

In the case of the gnatcatchers, they said, their optimism was fueled by the fact that they had already observed some of the remaining birds in untouched areas bordering the burned-out region, including some that had apparently fled from burned areas.

“We know there is a residual population in the fringes of the burn area,” Salata said, “and we fully expect that if those burn areas recover to pre-fire conditions, those peripheral populations will provide individuals to repopulate.”

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In the meantime, officials plan to work closely with various fire management and environmental protection agencies to assure that the regeneration is allowed to occur unmolested, and that future fires or other environmental disasters are prepared for well in advance.

“We will be particularly interested in maintaining some of the habitats in borderline areas,” Stine said, referring to areas that didn’t burn.

“There should be no constraints, however, on rebuilding homes related to any wildlife protection areas,” he said. “We are working closely with the agencies responsible for rehabilitation and looking at the most suitable measures to prevent erosion and flooding.”

Stine said his agency supports plans by the state to help reduce flooding by reseeding much of the burned-out area, provided that the seed used is of a native variety. State officials have said that they intend to plant native seed, but have not yet released any details of their plan.

“It is the service’s responsibility,” Stine said, “to point (out) when there are activities that may affect endangered species and to avoid or minimize those impacts. That’s the posture we’re in and, in particular, will be the charge we have as we look towards the future.”

Fire Toll Here’s the latest estimate of the toll taken by Orange County’s recent fires: Total acres burned: 35,400 (about the area of the cities of Irvine and Laguna Niguel combined) Gnatcatcher: Pairs killed, injured or displaced: 144 Percent of population: 19 Sage scrub Acres of burned: 7,700 Percentage of total: 16 Cactus wren Pairs killed, injured or displaced: 394 Percent of population: 25 Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service