THE TIMES POLL : Economy and President Seen More Favorably

Following several weeks of encouraging reports, Americans’ view of the economy--and with it their view of the Clinton presidency--has become noticeably more positive, according to the latest Los Angeles Times Poll.

The optimism is, like the recovery itself, limited. For example, by 52%-37% Americans still believe the nation is on the “wrong track” and three-quarters describe the economy as shaky.

But the shift toward more upbeat views is clear.

By a 59%-31% margin, Americans now view President Clinton favorably--a level not reached since his brief post-inauguration honeymoon. The respondents approved of his performance as President, 55%-35%, a sharp improvement over his ratings in surveys earlier this fall.

And 68% of Americans now say Clinton has the “honesty and integrity to serve as President,” while only 23% say he does not. During last year’s presidential campaign, Clinton’s rating on that issue never rose above 56%.

For the first time in more than three years, according to the Times Poll, less than half of those surveyed believe the country is in a “serious” or “moderate” recession. At election time last year, roughly three-quarters of Americans said they believed the economy was in a serious or moderate recession, and as of September, 56% still held that view. Now, that group has fallen to 48%.

Half of those surveyed say that now is a “good” or “excellent” time to make major purchases, the first time since 1991 that that question has received more positive than negative answers. And only 15% of those surveyed said they expected the national economy to be worse three months from now than it is today--an improvement from September, when 25% predicted the economy would worsen.

The poll, which surveyed 1,612 adults nationwide, was conducted Dec. 4-7. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll was supervised by Times Poll Director John Brennan.

Clinton’s advisers believe that over the long term, the most important measures on which voters will judge him will be their perception of whether the economy has improved during his tenure and whether he has been effective in bringing about needed changes in the country. On the economic measure he appears to be gaining, but the measures of his effectiveness remain mixed.

Economists, who use a more precise definition of “recession” than the public at large, say the recession ended more than two years ago and that the economy has since been in a fitful recovery.

During his first year, Clinton was able to muster narrow congressional majorities to achieve a major budget overhaul and passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement, while easily winning many other legislative battles. But the perception of “gridlock” in Washington lingers.

Asked how much progress the federal government is making toward solving problems, 12% said “a lot” or a “great deal” while 55% said “some” and 31% said “not much.” Just over two years ago, that question drew a somewhat more negative view, with 9% seeing a lot of progress, 47% some and 42% not much.

But so far, Clinton has escaped singular blame for the perceived problem. Just 12% blame Clinton primarily for lack of progress on the nation’s problems, while roughly one-third blame the Congress.

Clinton, who won election with 43% of the vote last year, has watched his approval ratings swing considerably since.

In recent months, his popularity reached a high in September when he launched his health care plan. But it seemed to sag again through the fall.

More significant long-term trends can be seen, however, by looking at Clinton’s gains since midyear, when he reorganized his White House team and began a concerted effort to recast his appeal toward moderate voters.

Since June, when those who disapproved of his performance outnumbered supporters, 49%-42%, Clinton has gained strength among centrists, conservatives and non-Democrats without alienating his Democratic base, Brennan said.

In June, independents disapproved of Clinton, 52%-36%. Now they approve of him by a 46%-42% margin. His approval among self-described moderates has climbed from 43% in June to 59% now. Those who voted for Ross Perot in 1992 are closely divided on Clinton now--44% disapprove and 43% approve, compared to 51% disapproving and 41% approving in June.

Even Republicans are now more split. In the new poll 54% disapprove of Clinton’s performance and 40% approve, compared to only 14% who approved in June.

Clinton’s gains in the center have come without any noticeable decline among the Democratic base. Indeed, his approval scores among self-described liberals, Democrats and black voters have risen. And, significantly, despite the bitter fight between Clinton and union officials over NAFTA, Clinton’s support among union members has held steady. Clinton had a 42% approval rate among union members in June, 65% in September and 63% in the current poll.

Indeed, union members now actually approve of NAFTA by 39%-33%, only slightly less than the overall public’s 41%-27% approval of the pact.

In general the public appears to support Clinton’s goals in the areas he hopes will dominate the congressional agenda next year--health care reform, crime control, welfare reform and job training. But Americans remain uncertain whether Clinton can achieve his goals.

On health care, by 52%-31%, with 17% uncertain, those surveyed say they support Clinton’s proposal. The poll, however, indicates that opposition to the plan is firming up. Shortly after Clinton announced his plan, a Times Poll showed Americans supporting the plan by 54%-24%, with 22% uncertain.

Few Americans think they know a lot about the Clinton plan, however. Only 5% say they know a “great deal” about the plan and 19% a “good amount.” By contrast, 75% say they know only some or not much at all. Those results indicate opponents still have a large opportunity to shape how the public views Clinton’s plan before Congress begins voting on it.

On gun control, 64% of those surveyed said that even with passage of the Brady bill, which requires at least a five-day waiting period for handgun purchases, federal gun control laws were “still not strict enough.” Only 7% said such laws were too strict, while 24% labeled them adequate.

A second gun control measure pending before Congress--a ban on certain assault weapons sponsored by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.)--receives overwhelming support, 71%-24%, with 58% saying they strongly favor the idea.

Support for gun control measures is split. While 56% believe they would be “very effective” or “somewhat effective” in reducing violent crime, 40% say they would be “not too effective” or “not effective at all.”

Concern about crime has clearly risen in the list of public priorities. Asked to name the most important problems facing the country, 30% said crime, compared with 41% who listed the economy or unemployment. Only 18% cited crime in September’s poll. Health care was the third most-mentioned problem at 18%.

Among Clinton’s four major legislative goals for the year--health reform, job training, welfare reform and crime--his own supporters are most keen to see action on health care and job training.

Only 31% said that Clinton will be able to make significant reductions in the federal budget deficit during his term, compared to 40% who felt that way just before he was inaugurated.

Exactly half of those surveyed said Clinton was “working hard to bring fundamental change” to government--down from 69% in September.

Asked how effective Clinton has been so far, 65% said he had been at least somewhat effective, but only 11% said very effective. Thirty-two percent said he was either ineffective or not too effective.

Meanwhile, only 33% of those polled voiced a favorable impression of Perot, while 55% viewed him unfavorably. That was down from a 47%-38% favorable view in June.

Republicans, who saw great opportunities in Clinton’s halting performance earlier this year now face larger problems. Asked which party could do a better job handling the nation’s biggest problems, only 25% named the GOP, down from 32% in both September and June. Asked if the Republicans were offering “constructive criticism” of Clinton or being “obstructionists for mostly political reasons,” 57% labeled the party obstructionist. Even 36% of Republicans shared that view.

* UPWARD SHIFT: A Times Mirror poll offers more good news for Clinton. A26

Presidential Perspective

President Clinton rates above Reagan and below Bush in a comparison of approval rates taken of other Presidents at the same point of their first terms.

APPROVAL RATINGS Bill Clinton: 55% George Bush: 66% Ronald Reagan*: 49% Jimmy Carter*: 56% THE CLINTON INDEX 24% say the country is in better shape because of Clinton 10% say the country is worse off because of Clinton 11% say Clinton has been very effective 43% say they have a good idea of where Clinton wants to lead the country 59% say Clinton cares about people like them 68% say Clinton has the honesty and integrity to serve as President THE GOP’S INPUT

In reacting to President Clinton’s proposals, do you think the Republicans are generally offering constructive criticism or are they being obstructionists for political reasons? Constructive criticism: 29% Political obstructionists: 57% Don’t know: 14% * data from Gallup. All approval ratings were taken at the end of Presidents’ first year.

How the Poll Was Conducted: The Times Poll interviewed 1,612 adult Americans nationwide, by telephone, from Dec. 4 through 7. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to that listed and non-listed number could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and labor force participation. The margin of sampling error on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.