WORLD CUP ’94 : Something Fishy OR Luck of the Draw? : No One Can Figure Out How Today’s World Cup Draw Could Be Fixed, but Then, No One Really Understands How It Works

The World Cup final draw. One of the world’s most misunderstood big events. The schedule for the world championship of soccer is set by drawing colored balls with the name of a country inside from oversized fishbowls. That’s the draw.

No one, it seems, believes that this simple procedure is entirely aboveboard. Yet no one, so far, knows exactly how the hanky-panky is carried off.

“You tell me; I want to know,” U.S. Coach Bora Milutinovic said.

The world will be able to watch it at noon today, at the Las Vegas Convention Center. The draw is televised nationally on ESPN and Univision and internationally to more than 80 countries.

Speculation already has the U.S. team in an easy group, Ireland placed in Boston and Italy in New York. Before the draw has begun.

For the first time, the ethnic makeup of venues will be taken into consideration in the placement of some teams. This perfectly sensible acknowledgment of fan interest is considered a first step in taking the draw from its murky depths, into the light.

Theories abound. Sophia Loren, who drew the colored balls from the bowls during the final draw in 1990, was said to be wearing a special ring, probably magnetized, that attracted the desired team ball to her hand.

Others swear the system in Italy was predicated on a system that employed heated and chilled balls, to distinguish among teams.

“I have never seen proof that we fix the draw. One must be very stupid to write about such rumors,” Guido Tognoni, a spokesman for FIFA, soccer’s governing body, said angrily. “We cannot make a draw so that it comes out as we want. You could be a mathematician and figure out the draw, you would be right 30% of the time.”

The problem with the protests to the contrary is the actual events of the draw are often shrouded with mystery. Things happen that have appeared odd, but officials have reassured everyone that “it’s all normal.”

One such incident occurred during the 1982 draw, when FIFA President Joao Havelange drew a ball, opened it and looked at the country name, then shrieked, “This is not possible!” and promptly threw it back into the bowl.

That, it is promised, will not happen today.

Even though the mechanics of the draw itself might take two guys five minutes, soccer tradition calls for a lavish show. Organizers here will not disappoint. A 90-minute variety show is planned, with draw elements interspersed.

Both the draw procedures and the manner in which the teams have been assigned to the bowls are different this year. Why it is different is not entirely clear, although it has been explained to journalists this week by FIFA officials.

The previous system called for seeding the entire 24-team draw and placing six seeded teams in descending order into four bowls. The system did a good job of evenly distributing the strong team throughout the groups with its one-from-Column-A-one-from-Column-B format.

The new system more closely conforms with FIFA rules that don’t allow teams from the same confederations to be placed in the same groups. That is why the U.S. and Mexico will not both be based in Los Angeles.

The underlying theory is simple: Arrange the groups into bowls so that regional teams will be separated. For example, the three African qualifiers have been placed in the second bowl to ensure they will be drawn out and placed in different groups.

Even though the new procedure has been explained several times to the 1,500 international journalists here, questions still remain. FIFA officials seem satisfied that at least they have tried to explain the system, even if it is not entirely clear.

“There always has been a mystique surrounding the draw, with so many accusations in the past that it was fixed,” said Alan Rothenberg, World Cup ’94 chairman. “Because it is so hard to understand the procedure, things that have happened on the day of the draw look suspicious. Now, everybody may not understand it, but at least they have heard how it’s done.”

The new system might not fix the draw, but it does resolve the problem presented by the old system. Under the ranking system, this group was possible: Belgium, Bulgaria, Romania and Nigeria. Such an alignment of fan-poor countries would have sent a World Cup venue director into a fit.

The new configuration allows for a more equitable allotment of “hot” teams, such as Brazil, which draw fans from all over the world.

FIFA points to past World Cups in which, had they been fixing the draw, drastically different groups would have been formed. Group E in the 1986 Mexican World Cup was such an example. It was called the Group of Death because of the strength of its teams--West Germany, Denmark, Uruguay and Scotland.

“I hope there will be a group of death,” Tognoni said. “It will be quite exciting.”

Here is how the draw will operate, so far:

--Balls from Bowl 1, containing the top-six seeded teams, will be drawn. These teams will be arranged horizontally across a board, as the heads of each group.

--Bowl 2 will then be drawn. Here, the assigning begins. The teams will be drawn from the bowl and placed in groups from left to right. However, the first move will be to ‘block’ the potential for conflict.

For example, if it is Brazil’s turn to receive a team and the team being drawn is Ireland, no problem, Ireland will be placed in that group. That “blocks” the spot so Bolivia or Colombia, which are in Brazil’s qualifying region, cannot be placed there and cause a conflict.

Bowls 3 and 4 will be drawn in the same fashion, with care taken that five groups have two European teams and one has three.

After the draw to form the groups, a second draw will be held to assign numbers within the groups. The U.S. team has already been designated A1. Once its group is drawn, a second draw will assign A2, A3 and A4 to the rest of the group.

Mocking the Draw

The World Cup selection committee will conduct its draw from fishbowls today. Times staff writer Julie Cart takes more of a crystal-ball approach to her predictions, eliminating random choices for considerations such as geography and marketing. A look at her predictions:

* GROUP A

United States

Morocco

Romania

Sweden

* GROUP B

Belgium

Bolivia

The Netherlands

Saudi Arabia

COMMENTS: These groups play games in Pasadena, Palo Alto and Pontiac, Mich. Placing the U.S. here gives the Americans two games at the Rose Bowl and a third at Coach Bora Milutinovic’s favorite venue, Detroit. Saudi Arabia, which the U.S. has defeated twice this year, joins the American group, where it will play in Detroit, which has the largest Arab population outside the Middle East. It also helps try to accomplish the main goal of the draw--to ensure that the U.S. advances past the first round.

* GROUP C

Germany

Russia

South Korea

Mexico

* GROUP D

Brazil

Ireland

Norway

Cameroon

COMMENTS: These groups play games in Chicago, Foxboro, Mass., and Dallas. This alignment would allow Germany to play two games in the nation’s largest German-American community (Chicago). Ireland would play two games near Boston, which will be painted green for the occasion. Mexico would play twice in Dallas, near home and amid a strong fan base. It also keeps Mexico away from its CONCACAF rival, the United States.

* GROUP E

Italy

Greece

Bulgaria

Colombia

* GROUP F

Argentina

Switzerland

Nigeria

Spain

COMMENTS: These groups play games in East Rutherford, N.J.; Orlando, Fla., and Washington. This alignment would give Italy and Greece two games in the New York area, where they have huge fan bases. Argentina would be based in Orlando, where the players will find the climate familiar.

Today’s World Cup Draw

* WHAT: Draw to select six groups of four nations each that will begin competition in June.

* WHERE: Las Vegas Convention Center.

* WHEN: Noon, 90 minutes.

* TELEVISION: ESPN.