When You’re Up Against It, Punt the Ball

In the vernacular of football, Gov. Pete Wilson and Assembly Speaker Willie Brown both punted last week in hopes of gaining better field position later. In fact, each hurriedly punted on first down.

“Get it out of here,” Brown told me, explaining his play. “It” was “three strikes and you’re out,” the politically potent initiative using that other sports idiom. The canny Speaker could visualize his fellow Democrats getting sacked by a powerful movement.

A day later, Wilson punted when he couldn’t think of another play for the next state budget. Trying to fill a $3-billion hole, and unable politically to either raise taxes or cut more spending, the governor papered over the gap with fantasy money from Washington. Mainly, he asked for--and penciled in--$2.3 billion in federal reimbursements for servicing illegal immigrants. He’ll be lucky to get a third of that.

The recap:

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The “three strikes” initiative, aimed at permanently locking up repeat felons, was in the Assembly as a bill. Its sponsor--the media savvy father of Fresno murder victim Kimber Reynolds--has been collecting voter signatures to qualify his measure for the November ballot.

Brown’s liberal colleagues were arguing that only violent criminals should be imprisoned for life. Perhaps, the Speaker said, but he didn’t want to hear it. Most of all, he didn’t want any loud, long public debate--not with both Mike Reynolds and Marc Klaas, the father of murdered Polly, hustling the measure in interviews all over the Capitol and the governor and the GOP scoring points by talking tough on crime.

So Brown set up his punt in the Public Safety Committee, during a “three strikes” hearing packed with television crews, newspaper reporters and victims rights advocates. For once, the inmates rights lobbyists took a back bench.

The committee, although long a liberal burial ground for Republican anti-crime bills, offered Mike Reynolds a rare deal: legislation placing his initiative on the ballot, thus saving him the time and expense of collecting signatures. The only condition was that it go on the June ballot, not November’s.

Reynolds grabbed the offer, but later told reporters he would continue to collect signatures to guard against a double-cross. Some Assembly Democrats also will be pitching their own “three strikes” bills.

Unless the Speaker’s punt is blocked in the Senate, which seems unlikely, it will take election-year pressure off Democrats who philosophically cannot support Reynolds’ popular proposal, but are willing to place the measure on the ballot--where it was virtually certain to wind up anyway.

The crucial thing strategically for Democrats is that the ballot will not be November’s, where they will be competing against Republicans. At stake is voter turnout; more precisely, composition of the electorate. A “three strikes” initiative is certain to attract some conservatives and rednecks who otherwise would not vote. Better that these people stay at home in November, if you’re a Democrat.

“Better to get the hell out of the way of that thing,” Brown said of the initiative.

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Wilson’s punt delayed his next big budget move until May. Then he’ll know more about game conditions, namely tax revenues and Washington’s reaction to his plea for immigration funds.

One dilemma is that Washington plays with a different time clock than Sacramento. The state’s fiscal year begins July 1; the fed’s is Oct. 1. So Wilson likely won’t know how many federal dollars he’ll be receiving until after the state budget deadline.

Presumably, however, the governor and the Legislature could punt again; just keep penciling in the envisioned federal funds until October and worry about it later. After the election, there’ll be a new Legislature and perhaps a new governor. There is no legal requirement that Wilson sign a balanced budget, despite myth.

Last year, the governor asked Washington for $1.5 billion in immigration money and got only $324 million. He says he’s more optimistic this time. Six other strapped states are joining California in demanding that Washington pay for its policies requiring services for illegal immigrants. Florida is suing and Wilson says it’s “a virtual certainty” California will, too.

There will be a new bipartisan effort to extract funds from Congress. In that bipartisan spirit, Wilson is not blaming the Democratic White House--”President Clinton didn’t create this problem.” He’s accusing Congress of “stealing” the immigration money and “welshing on its obligation.”

The success of all this punting won’t be known until at least June, about the time of the pro basketball playoffs. I’ll spare you metaphors about slam dunks, free throws, six fouls and you’re out. . . .