National Agenda : In Belfast Streets, the Mood Is Glum : Catholics and Protestants are too aware of what separates them to be optimistic about new talks.

In the cold, gray winter drizzle that makes West Belfast gloomier than usual, the whitewashed slogans on the dark stone walls along the Falls Road stand out: “Support the Peace Process” and “Back the Peace Initiative.”

The upbeat messages in this heavily Roman Catholic, republican area refer to the Dec. 15 Downing Street Declaration signed by British Prime Minister John Major and Irish Prime Minister Albert Reynolds in hopes of finding a way to end 25 years of sectarian violence in troubled Northern Ireland, also known as Ulster.

The agreement was hailed by many as breaking new ground in the search for a negotiated solution to the longstanding struggle between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland--a struggle that has claimed 3,100 lives since 1969. It was hoped particularly that this might be the key to luring Sinn Fein to the bargaining table. Sinn Fein is the political arm of the Irish Republican Army, which employs violence in its drive to see Ulster politically unified with the Republic of Ireland to the south.

But in the fortresslike bars in The Falls, the mood is not optimistic. For despite their expressed desire for a peaceful existence, people here sense deeply the chasm that separates Protestant Unionists from Catholic republicans in this violence-prone, British-ruled corner of the world.

“I don’t see how it’s going to work,” said an unemployed lather in a working men’s club. “The ‘Prods’ won’t give us anything. It’s all religious. That’s the way it is. They like killing Catholics.” Referring to a famous road in a predominantly Protestant section of town, he added: “If I went to the Shankill for a pint, I could be shot dead.”

The painted slogans supporting the peace initiative--originally pushed by Gerry Adams, president of Sinn Fein, and John Hume, moderate Catholic leader of the Social Democratic and Labor Party--are sometimes draped in the orange, white and green flag of Ireland.

But around the corner on Springfield Road, the red, white and blue Union Jack flies over a British army barracks, encased with steel netting to ward off grenade and mortar attacks.

And less than half a mile away is Shankill Road, the Protestant Unionist area separated from its Falls neighbor by a metal fence as daunting as the Berlin Wall.

There, a few doors away from a building blown up by the IRA in an October attack aimed at Protestant extremists, is another pub, Spartan and protected by a security barrier. Its patrons are equally glum about peace prospects.

“Outsiders don’t seem to realize that we Protestants aren’t Irish,” said one solidly built customer. “We’re British and we want to remain British, not Irish. We’ve been here for 400 years. We’re going to stay.”

“I think the British have given too much away to the IRA,” added another. “The IRA wants to stomp on the majority in Northern Ireland. The British talking to the IRA makes it look as if violence pays off. They ought to take the kid gloves off and deal with the IRA as terrorists.”

What was considered historic and hopeful about the December accord was that for the first time, London and Dublin cooperated closely in offering the IRA a place at a peace table. It followed secret contacts between the British and at least some elements of the IRA.

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London and Dublin apparently calculated theirs as a “win-win” offer: An IRA rejection could marginalize the organization both at home and in the larger world community.

As part of the December agreement, the British also declared themselves willing to leave the fate of Northern Ireland to its inhabitants in a freely determined choice. The mostly Catholic Irish agreed to amend their republic’s constitution to satisfy Ulster Protestants in the event of unification. Talks were due to begin as soon as all parties agreed, but Sinn Fein has delayed a firm response.

The party’s Gerry Adams insists that before he agrees to sit down at any bargaining table, the Downing Street Declaration needs “clarification.” Major says the declaration is already clear and that further conversation is tantamount to negotiation, which is not supposed to take place under the December agreement until after a three-month cease-fire. Hume,meanwhile, says Major should not object to offering a clarification to Adams if that would get the peace process moving.

“Sometimes it sounds like abstruse theological arguments in early Christendom,” said one observer.

The problem is that the language in the December declaration is purposely ambiguous. It is an attempt to square the Ulster circle by offering republican militants enough to bring them to the table without outraging their equally militant Unionist counterparts.

The critical sentence in the document reads: “The British government agrees that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively, to exercise their right of self-determination on the basis of consent, freely and currently given, North and South.”

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This, the British claim, fully protects the Protestant Unionists’ majority rights in Northern Ireland because any change could only come about with their consent.

“If this is the case,” commented one veteran observer here, “there doesn’t then seem to be much in it for the IRA--which has been fighting for years for a united Ireland.”

And Adams’ lately stated position is: “Democracy demands that Britain recognizes the right of the Irish people to determine our own future in our own interests and on our own terms.” He refers to an islandwide vote in which Ulster Protestants would have a minority voice; Northern Ireland would cease to exist as a separate political entity.

In the cramped, two-story party offices in West Belfast, Sinn Fein’s national chairperson, Tom Hartley, 49, defended Adams’ insistence on clarification.

“We want to see if there’s the dynamic to move forward,” the Belfast city councilor said. “If Britain gives the Unionists a veto, then they won’t move because they don’t have to move.

“We believe the British should get ready for a negotiating process leading to a united Ireland.” While that might well lead to a period of conflict, Hartley said, the British ultimately have the economic and military resources to force the Protestants to go along,

Hartley added: “Why shouldn’t John Major and Gerry Adams talk? I have a sense that age-old conflicts can be moved with negotiations, so I am a bit optimistic. We are in a new situation, a period of change.”

But many observers wonder whether the bearded Adams can bring along the so-called “hard men” in the IRA if they are being asked to give up violence--which they see as their key bargaining chip--in exchange for anything less than an immediately united Ireland.

A London analyst with connections in Ulster says that attempting to discern IRA thinking is like deciphering the Kremlin at the height of the Cold War. However, he ventures: “Suppose only 45 ‘hard men’ in the IRA don’t go along. They could cause a lot of damage and could effectively ruin any effort to bring in Sinn Fein because (the party) would be blamed for not stopping violence.”

And another official laments: “Sinn Fein met with IRA ‘hard men’ from prison during the Christmas holiday amnesty. The problem is that when any of the ‘hard men’ objects to negotiation and compromise, everyone else gets queasy about disputing them.

“The black joke is that in Britain, if you show courage by standing up to be counted, you get the OBE, Order of the British Empire; but among the paramilitaries, in standing up, you also get an OBE, One Behind the Ear.”

For their part, the Protestant Unionists also fret over the London peace declaration. They see it as the first step in a British sellout.

The Rev. Ian Paisley, militant leader of the extremist Democratic Unionist Party, has launched a series of appearances around the province warning against any talks with Sinn Fein, an organization he says “has put (itself) out forever. In no set of circumstances will I sit down with men whose hands are stained with blood.”

The cautious James Molyneaux heads the moderate Ulster Unionist Party, with nine seats in the British House of Commons to Paisley’s three, but he too is leery of talks that could lead to Ulster being subsumed by the Republic of Ireland.

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Molyneaux’s up-and-coming deputy, Parliament member David Trimble, says the Major government has already gone too far cosseting Sinn Fein. “It has put itself in the rather embarrassing position where it has been acting like a supplicant begging this squalid little terrorist group to be nice to it,” he said.

“The government should make it clear that the only thing to do now is to continue the political process and to address the Sinn Fein-IRA as a security problem.”

Ulster Unionists wish to remain part of Britain, not the least because Northern Ireland is on the receiving end of a $3.5-billion annual subsidy from London.

And it is difficult to envisage Major, beset by his many political woes, agreeing to a deal that would cast Ulster adrift--however popular that might prove to the large number of Britons who would like to wash their hands of the whole mess.

But if Britain should ever decide to remove the troops it has stationed in Northern Ireland since 1969--now 20,000--and let the republicans and Unionists sort things out among themselves, most military experts believe that the Protestants are in a far stronger position. In Northern Ireland, they outnumber the Catholics by about 950,000 to 600,000 although the demographics are moving in favor of the Catholics.

But the conventional wisdom in Irish-oriented bars in New York, Boston and Chicago--that the Northern Ireland Catholics together with forces from the republic would roll up the Protestants--overlooks some plain military facts.

“The Protestants have a long martial history,” points out a British military historian. “They lost a full division at the Somme in World War I, and they have contributed soldiers and many generals to the British army. They are better trained and disciplined than their potential Irish opponents.”

And an Ulster man, wounded in Belfast as a serviceman in the British army, claims: “We have thousands and thousands of men who have served in the army, the Ulster Defense Regiment, the Royal Ulster Constabulary and the Territorial Army (National Guard). They are trained in the use of heavy weapons, artillery, mortars, and most of them own light weapons. . . .

“The IRA are amateur guerrillas. They can set off their bombs and assassinate individuals, but they couldn’t fight a proper war, even with the help of the Irish army. I would have no qualms about killing an IRA man. And there are many more here like me.”

Like Britain, the Dublin government has outlawed the IRA, but it fears that any major conflict in Northern Ireland could spread quickly, putting great pressure on it to send troops to aid beleaguered Catholics. Most believe a civil war will be avoided, mainly because that would create a nightmare for the British.

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For now, Belfast, with freshly painted facades and new buildings, presents a much improved appearance from the worst days of what is euphemistically known here as “the troubles.”

Butsome complain that behind the facade, business owners must pay off both republican and Unionist paramilitaries. As one taxi driver put it: “Belfast is like Chicago in the old days. Every business has to pay protection, and the funny thing is you can write it off your income tax” as consultancy fees, commissions or some other ruse.

Despite skepticism over the peace process in many quarters, particularly the hard-scrabble areas of The Falls and The Shankill, officials and commentators hold out more than a ray of hope.

“A couple of years ago, you could not see the Sinn Fein even talking to the British government,” said one official in Belfast. “That’s a first. The idea is to bring in the Irish government in a limited way to show that Catholic rights are protected. The British seem prepared to accept that.”

No one knows or even predicts what the talks might lead to, with or without Sinn Fein. But the hope of people like Hume is that self-rule would be returned to Northern Ireland with the Catholics given a “weighted” minority so they would have representation in an Ulster assembly.

(From 1921 to 1972, Northern Ireland had its own regional government based at Stormont Castle just northeast of Belfast. That government was suspended in 1972 and replaced by direct rule from London.)

In Hume’s view, once Protestant Unionists get used to the idea of having political input by Ireland’s government, an accommodation can slowly proceed, with closer ties developed over the years and leading eventually to a united Ireland.

Clearly, an end to the violence in Ulster will depend on compromise. And as one longtime observer here puts it: “Despite all the suffering, the pain level has never been sufficiently high to make compromise possible.”

Still, said one neutral official following the process: “This is a hope, only a hope. But it is probably the best hope we have had in a long time.”

THE PLAYERS

Prime Minister John Major

BRITAIN: Would like to unload responsibilities in Northern Ireland, where it spends billions and stations 20,000 troops. But if the troops withdraw, it fears civil war and being accused of abandoning the 1 million Protestants who consider themselves Britons.

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Prime Minister Albert Reynolds

IRELAND: Would like a united island of Ireland but is not willing to go to war for it. It seeks to assure skeptical Protestants that their traditions would be respected despite its Roman Catholic-influenced laws such as bans on divorce and abortion.

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Rev. Ian Paisley

PROTESTANT UNIONISTS: Basically, they want to remain a part of Britain. Barring that, they are prepared to set up their own state rather than be subsumed by Ireland. Paisley is one of their spokesmen.

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Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams

SINN FEIN/IRA: Totally dedicated to a united Ireland. They believe the Protestant majority in Ulster must accede to becoming a protected minority on the reunited island.

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SDLP leader John Hume

MODERATE CATHOLIC REPUBLICANS: Mainly, the Social Democratic and Labor Party, which wants to see Ireland united through a gradual, peaceful process. They are outflanked by extremists on both sides.

THE ‘TROUBLES’ IN NORTHERN IRELAND

The wounds that Britain and Ireland are trying to heal are ancient. Some key events: *

1608--Scottish and English Protestants colonize areas of Ulster, confiscating land from the mostly Roman Catholic Irish. Many trace the present Northern Irish conflict to this event. *

1690--Battle of the Boyne. At Dublin, Protestant William III defeats an attempt by Catholic King James II to win back the English throne. Penal Laws are passed to keep Irish Catholics powerless. *

1782--Britain recognizes an independent Irish Parliament. But Catholics may not hold office. *

1798--The Irish Rebellion. Unsuccessful. Led by an Irish Protestant, it is nonetheless supported by Catholic France, reviving anti-Catholic sentiment. *

1800--Britain abolishes the Irish Parliament and unites Ireland and Britain in a United Kingdom with one Parliament. *

1905--Sinn Fein (We Ourselves) is organized among Irish Catholics to fight for independence. *

1916--The Easter Rebellion against British rule breaks out in Dublin. It is repressed by British forces, and its leaders are executed. *

1919--Irish members of the British Parliament establish their own Parliament in Dublin and declare Ireland’s independence. Civil war breaks out, and the Irish Republican Army (IRA) is formed. *

1922--An Irish Free State, mostly populated by Roman Catholics, is established within the British Empire. Meanwhile, the six northern counties, mostly Protestant, remain part of Britain proper. *

1949--Ireland becomes the Republic of Ireland, leaving the British Commonwealth. *

March, 1972--Britain disbands the Protestant-dominated Parliament of Northern Ireland, instituting direct rule by Britain. *

July, 1972--Bloody Friday. Eleven people are killed by 26 IRA bombs in Belfast. *

1980s--Bobby Sands, a British Parliament member, is among 10 IRA inmates at Maze prison who die during a hunger strike protesting conditions and demanding political-prisoner status. IRA launches bomb attacks, including one in 1984 that barely misses Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. *

1985--Anglo-Irish Agreement gives Ireland a say in Northern Ireland affairs in return for cooperation in combatting terrorism. *

Dec. 15, 1993--Britain and Ireland invite Sinn Fein to join negotiations for a united Ireland, on condition that violence stops in Northern Ireland. But violence continues, and no agreement is reached.

Sources: Baedeker’s Ireland, 1992 ed.; Reuters news service. Compiled by Times researcher JANET LUNDBLAD