Pols Should Read Polls on Quake Relief

Politicians pressured by an approaching election intuitively try to psychoanalyze the public and mimic its views. That’s the democratic process at work if you happen to agree with a particular politician or view. If you don’t, it’s political pandering.

The rhetoric of crime, illegal immigration and taxes comes to mind.

Currently in California, the tax issue has become embedded in a larger controversy--earthquake relief and repair--that temporarily has replaced crime, immigration and everything else as topic No. 1 for politicians.

And it appears that some politicians’ analyses of the public psyche may be off the mark--not that any ever would admit to being swayed by public opinion, as if this were an intrinsic evil.

These politicians--most notably Gov. Pete Wilson, Treasurer Kathleen Brown and new state Senate leader Bill Lockyer (D-Hayward)--who prefer bond financing over a temporary sales tax increase to pay for the state’s share of earthquake repair, might want to look at recent polling data.

Both the Times Poll and the Field Poll have found that the public overwhelmingly prefers raising the sales tax. That puts voters in sync with Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, Assembly Speaker Willie Brown (D-San Francisco) and Sen. Tom Hayden (D-Santa Monica), the rebel liberal.

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In a survey of Los Angeles County residents Jan. 22-23, the Times Poll found that 68% of the people favored a quarter-cent, one-year increase in the sales tax. Only 29% were opposed. This attitude was bipartisan: A sales tax hike was supported by 75% of Democrats, 65% of Republicans and 55% of independents.

The concept of a $2-billion bond issue generated less enthusiasm. It was favored by a margin of 54% to 24%, with a substantial number of people, 22%, not sure. Republicans were less supportive than Democrats.

The idea of increasing the gasoline tax by two to four cents a gallon received even less support. It was favored by a margin of only 52% to 42%, with Democrats in support, Republicans evenly divided and independents opposed.

The Field Poll found similar views in a statewide survey completed Monday. Asked their preferred method of raising money for earthquake repair and relief, 46% of the people said a sales tax, 28% a gas tax and 18% bonds. Of various sales tax options, a quarter-cent hike for two years was overwhelmingly supported, by a margin of 63% to 34%.

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I phoned some of the people interviewed by the Times Poll to ask why they preferred a sales tax increase. They all had thought it out carefully.

“The sales tax spreads it around a bit more instead of just hitting the poor guy who has to drive a car 100 miles a day,” noted Kenneth Jones, 64, a retired construction manager in South Pasadena. “And I think we have a lot of bonds out now.”

He’s right. The state is paying on $13.6 billion in general obligation bonds and has an unsold backlog of $5.4 billion. Annual interest alone on these bonds is $919 million.

Said Ned Mitchell, 77, of West Covina, a retired security specialist: “Bonds, you end up paying more. The interest is ridiculous. The gas tax is bad enough as it is. The sales tax isn’t good, but what the hell--it’s the lesser of evils.”

California motorists pay gasoline taxes of 36.4 cents on the gallon, basically divided between Washington and Sacramento. The sales tax varies from 7 1/4 to 8 1/2 cents, depending on the county. In Los Angeles, it’s 8 1/4.

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Wilson and others who oppose a tax hike argue that with Californians still burdened by a deep recession, this is the worst time to raise taxes. Anyway, they add, nobody yet knows how much Washington will pay or how much the quake ultimately will cost.

Meanwhile, the opportunity in Sacramento for a quick political consensus has slipped away. The Legislature is cautiously crawling in many directions.

For example, Assemblywoman Paula Boland (R-Granada Hills), whose district includes the quake’s epicenter, adamantly opposes a tax increase. What Washington doesn’t pay, she says, should be financed by suspending prevailing wage and environmental review requirements in rebuilding, and by abolishing the state Coastal, Energy and Lands commissions, the state architect and state fire marshal.

Observes Hayden: “I think people are disoriented. When reality sinks in, they’ll set aside ideology and say we have to raise taxes--not to rebuild it the way it was, but to rebuild it a new way which is going to even cost more, but is going to be safer.”

Somewhere between Boland and Hayden is where most politicians will land, as they usually do after a proper psychoanalysis of voters, commonly called their own polling.