H-II Rocket May Launch Japan Aerospace Firms : Technology: Though the ultimate result remains to be seen, the nation has become the newest player in the space game.

When Japan’s first domestically designed major rocket roared into space Friday, it marked a great leap upward for the country’s aerospace industry.

What that leap will ultimately bring, however, remains mostly a mystery even to the people who built and launched the H-II rocket.

An expanded role for Japan in space research is a virtual certainty. A strong foray into the commercial satellite launch business is a possibility but by no means guaranteed. Military applications could come someday, but Japan has a strong political commitment against development of a missile strike force--and the H-II is not really the right kind of rocket for that purpose anyway.

More than anything else, the new rocket simply makes Japan the world’s newest independent player in the space game. For now, at least, that alone is enough to satisfy Japan’s National Space Development Agency.

The successful liftoff ends “a quarter-century approach run,” said Tomifumi Godai, executive director of NASDA’s Launch Vehicle Development and Operation division. “Now we mark the beginning of activity to lead the world.”

In technical terms, the H-II seems to be world-class. Its engine is broadly modeled on the U.S. space shuttle engine but designed and built, like the rest of the rocket, entirely with Japanese technology. The rocket is relatively powerful for its weight, compared to rockets of a similar class built by other countries.

But the H-II has one huge drawback: its price. At $170 million a shot, it is one and a half to two times as expensive as key rockets in the world used for commercial satellite launches, such as the Ariane rocket of France-based Arianespace or General Dynamics’ Atlas and McDonnell Douglas’ Delta. And without winning commercial deals to put satellites in orbit, the 74 Japanese firms involved in building the H-II will have a tough time making much money from their project.

The H-II blasted off shortly after sunrise Friday from the Tanegashima Space Center on Tanega Island, 23 miles off the coast of Kyushu, the southernmost of Japan’s four main islands. The launch had been postponed since Tuesday morning, first due to bad weather, then because of problems with an air duct. The liftoff was delayed 20 minutes when a fishing boat entered a restricted zone below the flight path.

The 260-ton rocket, which is about 14 stories tall, carried a research satellite and an experimental re-entry vehicle designed to test heat-resistant carbon and ceramic materials for a future unmanned Japanese space shuttle.

The “Orbital Re-Entry Experiment” vehicle (dubbed OREX) circled the Earth once, then splashed down on schedule just south of the Equator in the central Pacific Ocean about 130 minutes after launch.

NASDA developed the H-II at a cost of $2.5 billion. Japan’s determination to build its own rocket is based partly on national pride and partly on a desire not to be dependent on the United States for the ability to put payloads into space. Previous Japanese rockets incorporated U.S. technology, which gave Washington a voice in their use.

“When you transfer technology, the restrictions are very severe,” Tokyo University professor Shigefumi Saito explained in an interview aired by NHK Television. “When U.S. engineers came to Tanegashima (more than a decade ago), NASDA engineers weren’t even allowed to observe their work. For engineers, that was a humiliation. This became a very strong motive force. It made us think we had to develop for ourselves the things we need.”

Especially influential, Saito said, was a 1980 incident when an experimental Japanese satellite went off course and became lost in space. The problem seemed to be with the satellite’s small engine. But the engine was U.S.-made, and Japanese engineers were not allowed even to examine its blueprints to try to figure out what went wrong. The H-II rocket program was started a few years later.

Japan now has ambitious long-term plans in space, including hopes for cooperation with the United States and other countries.

“Looking into the 21st Century, prospects for space stations and a moon base lie in front of the Japanese people and the people of the world,” Yasunobu Matogawa, a Space Sciences Institute professor, told NHK.

While Japan’s space research program will continue to be directed by NASDA, the work of building rockets and handling commercial satellite launches will be turned over to Rocket Systems Corp., a private firm established in 1990 by 74 of Japan’s leading companies. But NASDA plans first to conduct another experimental H-II launch this summer.

At the core of Rocket Systems Corp., according to Executive Vice President Hiroshi Imamura, are five key firms: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd., NEC Corp., Nissan Motor Co. and Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. These are the same firms that have played key roles in building the various components of the H-II.

Rocket Systems Corp. and the H-II rocket itself have a guaranteed future because of NASDA’s need for launch vehicles. But making the rocket a commercial success will be an immense challenge.

Today’s successful launch removes what Imamura called the “biggest wall” blocking his firm from conducting a profitable commercial satellite launch business--the lack of a rocket. But the current $170-million cost of building an H-II rocket must be cut by 30% to 50% before it can compete for international business, Imamura said.

“Our goal is to reduce the price by manufacturers’ efforts,” he said. “If we can’t do it, this rocket will not enter the commercial field.”

About 60% of the world satellite launch business is currently held by Arianespace, which has had 57 successful launches and six failures. The latest failure came last month, when an Ariane rocket crashed after takeoff from a site in French Guiana, ending a string of 27 consecutive successes. Some future combination of troubles in other countries’ launch programs and a sharp increase in demand for satellites could increase the importance of the H-II even if it remains a relatively expensive vehicle.

The H-II was plagued by various problems during its development, including two explosions--of an engine and of an engine part--that delayed the launch by two years. But its makers hope that high reliability will ultimately become a strong selling point.