ALPINE SKIING PREVIEW : Don’t Look for Americans to Crash Medal Parties

From Sun Valley to the Seine, Picabo to Piccard, the world’s greatest Alpine racers gather in the global village here to compete in an Olympic battle of wills.

Will home-country hero, Kjetil Andre Aamodt, turn two weeks of Alpine into a Norwegian cruise? Will Italy’s Alberto Tomba make headlines and history? If Marc Girardelli, Luxembourg’s one-man band, wins his first gold medal, will he admit that he wanted it all along?

Will the recent death of Austria’s Ulrike Maier shake skiers to the core at 70 m.p.h.?

Will the U.S. team dust off the cobwebs of controversy and rekindle those warm and fuzzy medal days of 1984? Or will they come up with another Calgary goose egg?

Two weeks of sharp turns and story lines begin Sunday with the men’s downhill at Kvitfjell and end two Sundays later with the great Tomba and the men’s slalom at Hafjell.

America first? Not in this space race.

The U.S. ski team has its share of stars--some rising, some fading--but are Shawn Bradley-thin.

Ten American men have found their way to Lillehammer, yet if you lined them up and asked the medal contenders to step forward, only Tommy Moe and AJ Kitt would have the right to move.

Kitt, accustomed to the spotlight, fielded most of the questions at a recent news conference, when in fact Moe, seated to his left, has surpassed him this season as America’s best downhill racer.

Moe, from Palmer, Alaska, ranks ninth in current World Cup standings in both downhill and super giant slalom, and also figures to be a medal contender in combined, a run of downhill one day and two slalom runs the next.

“This kid is really good, and he doesn’t really know yet what he can do,” Bob Beattie, the veteran ski analyst and former U.S. Alpine coach, said of Moe.

Kitt, the only American to have won a World Cup downhill since Bill Johnson in 1984, began the season as a strong Olympic medal hope but has fallen out of the podium picture, currently ranking 22nd in downhill.

Theories? Some think Kitt over-trained last summer, doubling his on-snow workouts. The tabloid angle is that he has fallen hard for Nancy Elder, the reigning Miss Canada, and love has cost him his edge. Kitt met Elder last summer while judging the Miss Universe contest.

“I haven’t come to the conclusion why I haven’t had a good season so far,” Kitt said. “I’m trying to put the struggle out of my mind and trying to ski fast.”

It is not as though Kitt has been crossing his tips. He finished 12th in the last downhill he raced, at Wengen, Switzerland.

But Beattie thinks he has too much ground to make up.

“I’m a great believer that if you don’t start cracking the top 10, you shouldn’t think about winning a medal,” Beattie said.

The men’s technical team? The Jamaican bobsled team has a better chance to win a medal.

The U.S. women are, again, intriguing at best. Last weekend, as the U.S. ski team read about its failures in a magazine story that flogged the American Alpine program, Hilary Lindh won the downhill at Sierra Nevada, Spain.

That’s one way to silence your critics.

Lindh, the defending Olympic downhill silver medalist, is hot on the comeback trail, having missed most of 1992-93 while recuperating from knee surgery.

More important, she has rounded into form in the critical days before the Olympic downhill, Feb. 19.

Sun Valley’s Picabo Street, last year’s silver medalist in combined at the World Championships, started slowly but recently started breaking into the top 10.

Heidi Voelker and Eva Twardokens have medal shots in giant slalom. Voelker currently ranks sixth in the world in the event, Twardokens 11th.

Then, there are the unsolved mysteries. Diann Roffe-Steinrotter, the 1992 Olympic GS silver medalist, has fallen to 30th place in her best event and appears to have run out of gas at 26.

Julie Parisien, who missed the bronze in slalom at Albertville by five-hundredths of a second, is a skier in crisis, still torn emotionally by the death of her brother in December of 1992.

Once the world’s top-ranked slalom skier, Parisien has fallen out of the top 20. Paul Major, the U.S. Alpine director, says she can still work some Olympic magic, but that is not the prevailing wisdom.

Other skiers to watch:

--Girardelli. The five-time World Cup overall champion, arguably the best all-around skier ever, seeks his first Olympic gold. In what might be a ploy to relieve himself of the pressure, Girardelli has spent the pre-Olympic weeks bad-mouthing the importance of the games. He’s 30, though, and this could be his last chance not to give a hoot.

--Tomba. He will try to become the first skier to win gold in three consecutive Olympics. Tomba swept slalom and GS at Calgary in 1988, then followed with gold in GS at Albertville.

After winning only one World Cup race last year, he was castigated by the Italian press. Tomba has since returned to dominance and--ominously for the competition--won the last two slaloms leading to the Games and currently ranks second in the World Cup overall, quite a feat considering Tomba does not ski downhill or Super G.

--Aamodt. Simply, the best skier in the world, and the heir apparent to Girardelli’s throne as all-around champion. The 22-year-old Norwegian is the reigning Olympic champion in Super G, and defending world champion in slalom and GS. Putting his mind to downhill this year, he won that World Cup event at Chamonix, France, on Jan. 29.

As for being the home favorite, Aamodt responds, “Everybody expects, and wants Norway to win. That can be an advantage or a disadvantage. If you think the people believe in you, it could be an advantage. If you think of the expectations people have of you, it might not be an advantage.”

A look at the races:

WOMEN’S SLALOM

Olympic champion: Petra Kronberger, Austria.

World Cup champion: Vreni Schneider, Switzerland.

Fab five: Schneider, Urska Hrovat, Slovenia; Anita Wachter, Austria; Pernilla Wiberg, Sweden; Morena Gallizio, Italy.

Comments: Kronberger, a three-time overall champion, retired last year at 23. Schneider, 29, shows no signs of slowing. She is the current World Cup leader in overall and slalom. Parisien remains America’s best medal hope.

WOMEN’S GIANT SLALOM

Olympic champion: Wiberg.

World Cup champion: Carole Merle, France.

Fab five: Wiberg, Wachter, Deborah Compagnoni, Italy; Christine Meier and Martina Ertl, Germany.

Comments: Wiberg, who has rebounded wonderfully from Achilles’ tendon surgery in 1992, is stronger in slalom this season. This is the best event for Wachter, the defending World Cup overall champion.

The Germans swept the GS on the Hafjell Olympic course during a World Cup stop last March, with Meier winning. America’s Heidi Voelker could sneak up and surprise.

WOMEN’S SUPER-G

Olympic champion: Compagnoni.

World Cup champion: Katra Seizinger, Germany.

Fab five: Seizinger, Wiberg, Compagnoni, Bibiana Perez, Italy; Katja Koren, Slovenia.

Comments: The late Ulrike Maier would have been a medal contender here. Seizinger rules as the world’s top woman in super-G and downhill. Megan Gerety, the top U.S. hope at the beginning of the season, ranks 33rd in the world. Hilary Lindh ranks 20th.

WOMEN’S DOWNHILL

Olympic champion: Kerrin Lee-Gartner, Canada.

World Cup champion: Seizinger.

Fab five: Seizinger, Lee-Gartner, Kate Pace, Canada; Veronika Stallmaier, Austria, and Lindh.

Comments: The best skier not in the race is Norway’s Astrid Loedemel, who in January tore up a knee in a super-G at Altenmarkt, Austria. Watch out for Lindh and Picabo Street.

WOMEN’S COMBINED

Olympic champion: Kronberger.

World Cup champion: Wachter.

Fab five: Renate Goetschl, Austria; Wachter, Wiberg, Street, Miriam Vogt, Germany.

Comments: Street won silver at the World Championships last year, and she appears to be peaking.

MEN’S SLALOM

Olympic champion: Finn Christian Jagge, Norway.

World Cup champion: Tomas Fogdoe, Sweden.

Fab five: Tomba, Thomas Stangassinger, Austria; Jure Kosir, Slovenia; Christian Jagge, Fogdoe.

Comments: Can anyone deny Tomba his destiny? He starts the Olympics having won consecutive World Cup slaloms at Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, and Chamonix. American Matt Grosjean finished 10th in this event at the Albertville Games, but has not been heard from since.

MEN’S GIANT SLALOM

Olympic champion: Tomba.

World Cup champion: Aamodt.

Fab five: Aamodt, Christian Mayer, Austria; Franck Piccard and Guenther Mader, Austria, and Tomba.

Comments: This hasn’t been Tomba’s best event this year, but it is hard to bet against the two-time defending Olympic champion. Aamodt will make his considerable Olympic presence known in this race. The U.S. doesn’t have a prayer.

MEN’S SUPER-G

Olympic and World Cup champion: Aamodt.

Fab five: Aamodt, Girardelli, Mader, Markus Wasmeier, Germany; Jan Einar Thorsen, Norway.

Comments: Girardelli is closing fast in this event, having won at Wengen. But since he insists he doesn’t care about the Olympics, give the nod to Aamodt, who does.

MEN’S DOWNHILL

Olympic champion: Patrick Ortlieb, Austria.

World Cup champion: Franz Heinzer, Switzerland.

Fab five: Ortlieb, Girardelli, Aamodt, William Besse, Switzerland; Hannes Trinkl, Austria.

Comments: Heinzer was the best downhiller going until he suffered a concussion while training for Kitzbuehel race in January. Alarm bells rang concerning his condition when he missed his own country’s downhill at Wengen. Heinzer appeared fine in Thursday’s training run here, however, finishing ninth.

Ortlieb proved his Olympic victory was no fluke when he won his first two World Cup downhills this year, at Val Gardena, Italy, and the famed Kitzbuehel.

Aamodt finished fifth on the Kvitfjell course last year.

Moe is cocky and good, both at the right time.

MEN’S COMBINED

Olympic champion: Josef Polig, Italy.

World Cup champion: Girardelli.

Fab five: Aamodt, Lasse Kjus, Norway; Girardelli, Mader, Moe.

Comments: Don’t be surprised if Norway goes 1-2 here. Girardelli would be more of a favorite, but he is not skiing as well in slalom.