Choosing Best Track for Transportation : * Urban Rail System Poses the Most Benefits, Challenges

Transportation choices clearly are needed in Orange County, which has some of the worst traffic in California. And one intriguing solution being considered is an urban rail system. There are even some tax dollars accumulating after being approved by voters.

However, there are so many unanswered questions at this point that it is hard to know exactly what to make of all the talk. Presumably, such a system would run through the heart of Orange County, and again presumably, it eventually could link up with train service to Los Angeles.

What specifically would be connected? Recreation areas, residential areas, work centers and the airport? Would a train be a costly duplication of existing bus service? What would it really cost to install and subsidize?

The idea is exciting and offers a hopeful alternative to the automobile. At this point, though, it is at a very formative stage. There is no concrete plan that is driving the search for dollars. Rather, it is the presence of some dollars and the prospect of more that is driving the plan.

What is clear at this point is that there is a lot of money on the table, and a lot more money than that in the pipeline of dreams. And it is this pot of gold, rather than some urgent need to put down track, that fuels speculation on a monorail or similar rail system envisioned for a 15- to 30-mile starter line.

The two key financial components are Measure M, the half-cent sales tax approved by county voters in 1990, and the cycle of federal transit funds. The Orange County Transportation Authority board has at its disposal revenue from Measure M, which envisioned an intra-county, multi-stop system. This clearly would be something more advanced in county rail than the commuter trains that run between counties with a few stations along the way.

For county planners, some of the justification properly arises from a feeling that the county should keep faith with the spirit of the sales-tax measure. And two studies have shown that a route from South Coast Plaza to Disneyland, running roughly along Main or Bristol streets in Santa Ana, would be suitable. With hundreds of millions of dollars available from the sales-tax measure, which would build an estimated six miles or so of the starter line, it is tempting to rev up the engines.

At the same time, Washington is going through its seven-year cycle of transit funding. The next one starts in 1996, which will be just after OCTA finishes its mandatory analysis, scheduled to look at transit methods for the corridor. Make no mistake; the infusion of federal money to build a viable system would have to be huge. The analysis of transit options alone is an estimated $1-million to $2-million cost.

Other considerations for maybe going ahead: The Northridge earthquake showed that the numbers of train riders increased many times after the disaster. We learned from a crisis what we already know from our everyday traffic mess--alternatives to the automobile are necessary. Transit officials argue that the Blue Line from Long Beach has been a success. Urban rail in Orange County also might be a catalyst for redevelopment.

When rail systems around the country have cost so much more than projected, it is an understatement to suggest that the county must proceed carefully. In the past, some key planning decisions in Orange County have been made on shortsighted considerations.

This is a very important decision that is going to be made for a very long haul, and will affect not so much current generations as future ones. Study it well.