Does California Have a Future After Its Deluge of Disasters? : POLITICAL FORECAST

After temblors, wildfires, riots, mudslides and economic recession, what is the future of the state? The Times asked seven California writers and historians.

Gerald W. Haslam, Professor of American studies, California State University, Sonoma.

The only thing that might not have a future is the California Dream, which never was real to begin with. Expectation always preceded reality in California. The quest for el dorado was rooted in an unreal expectation. When Americans came with the Gold Rush, they saw abundance; there was no reason to say that anything could be denied.

At some point, we Californians have to begin living within the means of the land, to start having a sustainable culture.

Fernando J. Guerra, Professor of political science, Loyola Marymount University The future of California rests with leaders who are willing to be innovative, not only in government but in industry, religious institutions and universities. California will be judged not only by the wealth it creates, but by how it treats its youngest, its oldest, its poorest.

Jeff Lustig, Professor of government, former director of the Center for California Studies,California State University, Sacramento We’ve got to apply California’s “notorious” reputation for innovation to political forms. We have to decentralize politics inside the state, make it possible--and necessary--for citizens to participate in public affairs.

Our current constitution was adopted when the state had 800,000 people. The very ways we go about being public prevent us from implementing the public interest.

Patricia Nelson Limerick, Professor of history, University of Colorado, Boulder The future of California is to move to Colorado and to other western states. The combination of discomfort from the economy and earthquakes and fires and ethnic tensions are making people pick up and move. This is the pattern in American history. People pick a western location, thinking it will cure their problems. A lot of people moved to California to escape reckoning on limits on their freedom. Newcomers thought they could build their houses in a freer sort of way, only to discover that they had built in fire zones or places where there are earthquakes.

James D. Houston, Author of “Californians: Searching for the Golden State” California is going to be profoundly affected by its rate of population growth. The state has been growing by more than 1,000 people a day for more than 50 years, and it has finally caught up with us. Every system in the state--water, roads, housing, education--is overloaded. The upside of the Northridge earthquake is if it manages somehow to discourage people from coming to California.

The birthrate and immigration are hard things to talk about, because you have racial charges being thrown back and forth. You can’t fault people for having kids, but there’s got to be greater control of immigration and some education on birth control.

Gloria Lothrop, Professor, history at California Polytechnic University, Pomona. I see a very hopeful future, economically, with increased trade. Activity in the Wilmington-Long Beach Harbor will increase with the North American Free Trade Agreement. On the down side, as I listen to debates regarding family values, crime and violence, I sense a growing conservatism and wonder whether California will lose its position as the bellwether of trends.

I find the idea of state division not as remote as some people would. With an increasingly youthful population and increasing demand upon social services--which will lead to less (resources) for higher education, infrastructure, arts and recreation--I wonder if there won’t be a call for state division, with the idea that parts of the state that are not as affected by these demographic patterns may not want to be burdened with the cost and responsibilities.

Robert V. Hine, Professor of history emeritus, University of California, Riverside and Irvine campuses. California has always been a state of boom and bust throughout its history. We have always been able to pull out of difficult periods, and I don’t see why we can’t pull out again.

Political Forecast was compiled by Therese K. Lee.