NEWS ANALYSIS : Resilient Wilson Maneuvers Campaign Agenda to His Turf

For Gov. Pete Wilson, to whom the sounds of praise--or even grudging respect--have come as seldom as good economic news these last few years, the opening of this political season has been a springtime of optimism. His reelection campaign, almost universally derided as an impossible quest a few months back, has managed to set the agenda for the race just as it is capturing public attention.

There he was last week, signing the popular “three strikes and you’re out” legislation, then jumping onto his campaign plane for a two-day swing around the state. Two of his Democratic opponents, state Treasurer Kathleen Brown and Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, filled the air with campaign advertisements but the state’s political insiders said both seemed to be taking a temporary back seat to Wilson.

While Wilson has only token opposition for his party’s nomination, the Democrats have other concerns: Brown, although still the acknowledged front-runner and a strong opponent for Wilson, is facing open warfare for her party’s nomination. Garamendi is laboring under the prospect that his candidacy is doomed unless his campaign receives a quick infusion of money.

Shadowing both is state Sen. Tom Hayden, who entered the race with a splash last month. A self-described, go-for-broke reform candidate, Hayden says the Democrats have allowed the race to be fought on Wilson’s turf.

“He has managed to shift the debate away from the economy to crime and I attribute this to hard work,” said Hayden, no friend of Wilson. “He has managed to pull the other Democratic candidates onto his terrain, much to my surprise, because Democrats won’t get elected if they are fundamentally similar to the governor.”

The sense that momentum is shifting has given Republicans, who for months have quietly anticipated losing the governor’s office, a renewed optimism.

“Three months ago, I was saying publicly that it was Kathleen Brown’s to lose, but in my judgment she was fully capable of losing,” said Steven A. Merksamer, a Sacramento lawyer and prominent Republican activist. “Today, it’s Pete Wilson’s to lose and I doubt he will.”

Democrats, while acknowledging that Wilson has made a comeback, offer a stern reminder that predictions made in March of a campaign year can be sheer folly by the time the November general election rolls around.

“We have all had our moments in the sun and the campaign has really not been fully engaged,” said Michael Reese, Brown’s spokesman.

To be sure, Wilson’s success is relative. For most incumbents, polls that show challengers leading would be taken as intimations of disaster. But for Wilson, who was more than 20 points behind his Democratic challengers in polls taken last summer, the current move to within single digits of Brown and Garamendi marks something of a surge.

Democrats have eight more months in which to make their case, which this year will boil down to a recitation of the ills that have befallen California on the Republican’s watch.

Many credit part of Wilson’s surge to the Jan. 17 earthquake, which placed the governor front and center before the television cameras for days running. “The earthquake was a disaster for everyone except the governor,” one Republican said. Moreover, repercussions of the quake continue to dominate news coverage at a time when Wilson’s lesser-known challengers are seeking to define themselves for voters.

Hayden’s entry corralled some of the attention that otherwise might have been directed to Brown and Garamendi.

Hayden plans to run a grass-roots campaign that will hammer on the issue of campaign reform and the influence of big money on California politics. But the other candidates are running far more conventional campaigns, for which they are now fine-tuning their strategies.

Garamendi has escalated his criticisms of Brown in recent weeks, calling her “out of touch” on the hot-button issue of violent crime and questioning her commitment to the death penalty, which she says she personally opposes but would carry out as governor. His intent, those watching his campaign say, is to bait her into engaging in the sort of back-and-forth squabbling that could increase Garamendi’s stature.

Although some Democrats nervously wish Brown would enter the fray and assuage their concerns that she can handle a tough opponent, she has sought to define herself on her own terms. “She can afford to stay above the fray,” said one Democrat who, like most political insiders interviewed for this story, spoke on condition of anonymity.

Brown advisers say that she has been angered by Garamendi’s recent attacks and that they stand ready to respond if necessary. “We are not going to sit there and unilaterally disarm,” one said.

Garamendi’s campaign manager, Darry Sragow, said that if Brown chooses to ignore Garamendi’s gibes, she will suffer politically.

“The problem with not engaging is that Californians favor a tough, strong, assertive leader for governor, and by not engaging, she confirms the charges that we are leveling--that she has a coronation complex,” Sragow said.

For Garamendi, the problem is how to sustain the assault. At the end of last year, Garamendi had $1 million on hand, while Brown had five times as much. Sragow openly states that the campaign is “spending money as fast as it comes in.”

To mount a serious attack on Brown, Garamendi will have to lend himself huge sums of money--a move that many anticipate.

“Kathleen’s lead over Garamendi is pretty soft and if John had the money that would obviously change things,” said one Democrat who is friendly with both. “I just don’t know that that’s going to happen.”

Wilson’s strategy is to reintroduce himself to California voters. His image has suffered from several years of governing during difficult economic times. On his announcement swing last week, he repeated a litany of actions that have marked his three decades of public life.

In Los Angeles, he focused on the issue of crime, reminding voters that he had been in the forefront of efforts to toughen sentences.

“Voters are going to be put into a position of having to make a choice between Pete Wilson and an alternative--and neither of those alternatives appears to be appealing right now,” said Dan Schnur, Wilson’s spokesman.

Democrats privately express nervous admiration for Wilson, whose tenacity seems boundless.

“He’s the toughest son of a bitch in politics,” one well-regarded Democrat said. “From just a technical point of view, the guy was down and out, and most people had counted to 10 and were ready to ring the bell on him.”

The Democratic candidates for governor and their partisans continue to predict victory, insisting that all Wilson has done is reclaim voters who should have been in his corner all along. When voters have to cast their ballots, they say, they will remember the state’s hardships under his tenure.

“They have no reason to like this guy,” one said. “Why would they want to see him up on their television screens for another couple of years?”