Sometimes the Good Guys Are Hard to Find

Politically, I never think of anything good coming out of Orange County.

To me, it’s largely a bland place populated by little hard brains, the kind of people who brought us Nixon and Deukmejian, who yearn for Reagan and who in their longing have established California’s only chapter of the national Rush Limbaugh Fan Club.

It’s Rep. William E. Dannemeyer of Fullerton, a man who suggests that AIDS victims be numbered and quarantined and who, on one of his better days, likened Nelson Mandela to a convicted murderer and called Mandela’s appearance before the joint houses of Congress a “national disgrace.” It’s Rep. Robert K. Dornan of Garden Grove, a man who calls men who support abortion rights “women trapped in men’s bodies . . . who are looking for an easy lay.”

Like I said, I never think of anything good coming out of Orange County. Except for a guy named Michael Schumacher.

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Schumacher is the head of Orange County’s Probation Department. For the past 18 years he’s been wrestling with the question of how to reduce juvenile crime.

Recently, he’s come up with something intriguing--not a hunch, not an emotion-driven guess, but a plan rooted in hard evidence.

In an effort dubbed the “Eight Percent” study, Schumacher and his probation officers tracked first-time juvenile offenders in Orange County for up to six years after their first brush with the law.

Here’s what they found.

The vast majority of children, 71%, are never arrested again after their first brush with the law. Twenty-one percent may get popped a second or third time, but after that their flirtation with delinquency ends.

But a small group, 8% of the kids, become chronic, repeat offenders, arrested as many as eight times. And that tiny hard knot commits more than half of all the juvenile offenses in Orange County, graduating from petty crimes to hard stuff such as armed robbery, rape and drive-by shootings.

What is most significant is that Schumacher’s staff has developed a criterion for identifying those potential “eight percenters” from the first time they stroll through the detention doors on some minor offense.

What is it?

They are the kids with problems, lots of problems: family problems, school problems, drug and alcohol problems. Many are kids who live in X-rated neighborhoods and X-rated homes: abused kids, neglected kids, lost kids, the kids about whom teachers often say to me, “They have so many problems it’s a miracle that they even make it to school every day.”

Schumacher has taken this new data and come up with the idea that if he can provide this now identifiable group the kinds of things they so desperately need--drug and alcohol rehabilitation, stable homes, family counseling, close personal supervision--they won’t come back through his door again.

At the heart of his strategy is a simple notion: It is better for you and me not to get robbed, beaten or killed than to send some kid away forever after we’ve been robbed, beaten or killed.

From a very selfish standpoint, I like his approach.

So, Schumacher is trying to marshal enough resources and coordination through the various agencies to deal with those kids’ problems early.

“If we help these kids,” he says, “society on the whole will benefit. There will be fewer victims, fewer wasted lives and far less costs to taxpayers.”

Now Schumacher is no softy, no bleeding-heart liberal. He’s more of a pragmatist.

“I don’t argue that people who victimize other people have to be dealt with sternly,” he says. “And it would be naive to think that we’ll be able to turn all these kids around, but any significant number has a tremendous long-term impact on society. If we don’t find a way to turn these kids around at first offense, there will never be an end to this.”

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Lots of people are excited about what Schumacher has found. His office has already gotten about 150 requests for copies of his studies from agencies and operations across the nation, and even as far away as Israel.

So, you’d think that those state representatives from Orange County would be standing in line to help come up with money to support Schumacher’s efforts. Well, you’d be wrong. The only legislator so far to propose funding his effort is Assemblyman Tom Connolly from San Diego County.

Like I said, politically, I never think of anything good coming out of Orange County.