Can Hayden Succeed Where Sinclair Failed? : Politics: The Chicago Seven alumnus is a definite factor in the Democratic primary.

Sixty years ago, Depression-era California voters rallied behind the End Poverty in California platform of an unlikely candidate for governor, Socialist Upton Sinclair. He won the Democratic nomination by a landslide.

Today, the talk is about whether the Democrats can produce, in a recessionary era, another victor from the left with the populist appeal of yesterday’s muckraking author and pamphleteer--and who, unlike Sinclair, can win a general election.

Raising the progressive banner will be Tom Hayden, 1960s Vietnam War resister and New Left leader, 1970s guerrilla-style activist and insurgent challenger for a U.S. Senate seat, 1980s and ‘90s assemblyman and state senator. While the odds are against his making the November ballot, Hayden has positioned himself as the messenger of reform against the corrupt power of money and lobbyists in Sacramento.

The question is whether Hayden, aping former Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown and businessman Ross Perot in the 1992 presidential campaign, can make his “Reform in ‘94” message resonate with the salience of hot-button issues like crime, jobs and education.

Hayden has tried to downplay his chance at winning the Democratic nomination. But the feeling among political cognoscenti in both parties that state Treasurer Kathleen Brown has the nomination wrapped up has eroded with the growing perception that she lacks core beliefs. Now, the specter of a focused campaign by Hayden, a proved vote-getter adept at attracting free media attention, raises the possibility of pivotal, three-way debates that include Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi.

Despite insisting that he will not run paid radio and TV spots, Hayden, a multimillionaire thanks to his huge divorce settlement from Jane Fonda in 1989, says he may use his own money to buy 15- to 30-minute “infomercials.” He personally spent an estimated $750,000 to win a state Senate seat in 1992.

One has only to recall the success of the political-reform campaign of Jerry Brown in 1974 to understand that the dynamics of state Democratic politics in a crowded primary historically tend to favor the most populist candidate. A similar developing scenario suggests that Hayden’s uphill battle to win the nomination may depend on igniting core liberal constituencies currently soft on the bland campaigns of “New Democrats” Brown and Garamendi.

Hayden’s anti-Establishment dream of the 1960s remains unrequited. His candidacy will fragment the race and cut the margin needed to win the primary to perhaps 37%. If Hayden is able to mobilize his constituency, he could seriously weaken Brown, whose campaign has had a major shake-up in recent days in search of a new message.

Brown’s bland campaign slogan, “Enough is enough,” while comforting to an upper-middle-class constituency--notably women who identify with her--was not specific enough to ignite her candidacy among liberals, whose vote in the Democratic primary carries far greater weight than in the general election. And the largest portion of her supporters are young blacks and Latinos, susceptible to Hayden’s populist rhetoric.

Even the good-luck admonition to his sister by Jerry Brown had an uncharacteristic vagueness. He declared he was glad Hayden was putting the issue of political reform “front and center,” then added: “I’m certainly urging my sister to get out front on political reform.” That raises the tantalizing question of whether there will be a tactical shift to the left in Kathleen Brown’s campaign to blunt Hayden’s rhetoric.

As long as Hayden remains an unpredictable wild card, Brown, who leads Gov. Pete Wilson in the polls--will be forced to campaign harder and spend more general-election reserves to nail down the nomination. Even repelling Hayden, Brown would still start against Wilson substantially weakened by the populist assault. Remember 1976 and Sen. John V. Tunney, who never recovered from the Chicago Seven alumnus’ pummeling and lost to maverick Republican S.I. Hayakawa.

For Wilson, Hayden’s mischief in roiling the Democratic primary is serious political manna. With the luckiest of bounces, he might even draw Sinclair’s heir as his November opponent.