CRIME WATCH : Striking Out

California is starting to look beyond the political rhetoric of the new “three strikes” law and consider the local impact. The picture isn’t pretty--and should cause voters considerable pause in November.

An Orange County Administrative Office report this week addressed the likely effects of the new law, which mandates prison sentences of 25 years to life for those convicted three times of violent or so-called serious crimes. The report provides grounds for opposing a similar “three strikes” statute that will be on the November ballot. For one thing, the ballot measure largely duplicates the recently passed law; for another, the costs of implementing any “three strikes” measure are likely to be greater than first thought.

Orange County officials predicted the need for many more trials as felons refuse plea bargains; and the increased level of incarceration will probably force jails to release drunken drivers, burglars and other “minor” criminals sooner than they should. The law also will trigger a greater demand for welfare benefits from convicts’ families; more children from convict families will wind up in government custody.

Los Angeles Dist. Atty. Gil Garcetti already has stopped filing new cases involving worker safety, environmental crimes and major fraud in order to handle the “three strikes” load.

New state prisons will cost billions to build and operate. The months ahead are likely to spell out the true costs of hasty, politically expedient legislation. Passage of a “three strikes” ballot measure would merely compound the error.