You Can Set Your Watch by Amtrak . . . 44% of the Time : Trains: Aging equipment and other problems make long trips especially prone to delays.

Does Amtrak have a punctuality problem? Ask Lynn Andreoli Woods of Los Angeles, who recently spent 11 1/2 hours waiting for a train, and you can expect a prompt answer.

Woods was in New Mexico on Jan. 31 when she learned that because of a derailment elsewhere, her 3:05 p.m. Amtrak train out of the Lamy station (near Santa Fe) would be four to five hours late. By the time her train finally left the station, however, that estimate had been severely stretched. The time was 2:30 a.m. on Feb. 1, and Woods had drafted a complaint about poor communication and “taciturn and unfriendly” employees.

Though I remain a fan of train travel, I’ve had comparable experiences, and I’ve read about many more in the angry letters that often land in this office. I’ve also seen the statistics on Amtrak’s long-distance trains: In 1993, 56% of Amtrak’s long-distance trains in the 11 Western states were at least half an hour late.

But that’s not the end of the answer. There’s a big difference in on-time performance between Amtrak’s short and long routes, and there’s a long list of factors at work in each case. The more a traveler knows about them, the more likely he or she will be satisfied by an Amtrak trip.

Some of Amtrak’s long-distance figures do seem to be improving, such as those for the popular 34-hour, 1,389-mile Coast Starlight route between Los Angeles and Seattle. About 68% of the trains on that route ran on time through February. But officials acknowledge that without more federal spending, equipment will continue wearing down faster than it is replaced. (Amtrak, created in 1971, covers 20% of its costs with federal subsidies, and over the last decade has fallen behind in spending to maintain and replace equipment.)

Track maintenance is a substantial problem, too, Amtrak leaders say--in part because, of the 25,000 miles of track Amtrak uses nationwide, more than 24,000 is the property of privately owned railroad companies. Generally, freight operations are the core of those companies’ business. Amtrak officials say the timeliness of passenger trains often suffers because they must compete with thick freight traffic or because track conditions limit speeds. (Southern Pacific spokesman Mike Furtney, however, noted that just 10 of the 1,200 miles of Southern Pacific-owned track between Los Angeles and Portland, Ore., are affected by track-related “slow orders” that reduce train speeds.)

On the whole, it’s no wonder that Gena Holle, editor of the International Railway Travel Newsletter, finds her well-traveled subscribers “not too thrilled with Amtrak.”

For Amtrak travelers within Southern California, the picture is different. Amtrak records show that in January, the San Diegan route between Santa Barbara and San Diego carried 574 trains, of which 87.5% arrived within 10 minutes of their scheduled time. Numbers were comparable in February, and between Los Angeles and San Diego, the on-time figures were even higher. For the last several months, Amtrak’s local trains have been “doing great,” said Lee Bullock, general superintendent for Amtrak’s western division.

And now the catch.

On March 28, the Metrolink commuter system added two trains and lengthened the route of another on the route between Los Angeles and Oceanside, advancing the cause of public transportation but further crowding tracks that 10 years ago carried half as much passenger traffic. With the new traffic comes a variety of route improvement projects--works in progress that will eventually yield more efficient service. But over the intervening year or so, rail authorities acknowledge, Amtrak timeliness is likely to suffer.

How much? No one is certain. Amtrak’s Bullock said the next several months pose “formidable challenges” to the line’s staff and timetable. Metrolink spokesman Peter Hidalgo sounded a more muted warning, acknowledging that rail travelers may face “a minor inconvenience” until the system settles into a new routine.

To reduce expectations, Amtrak added eight to 10 minutes to its scheduled travel times last September. (Current Los Angeles-San Diego schedules allow from 2 hours 45 minutes to 3 hours 5 minutes for the 128-mile journey.)

And to better cope with the heavier traffic, Metrolink last August began several improvement projects along the 62 miles of Amtrak-traveled track it owns between Oceanside and Fullerton. Foremost of the projects is double-tracking 40 miles of single track. Right now, trains approaching from opposite directions must do a dance that involves deceleration, turning out to a siding, and responding to orders from a dispatcher. By summer, 1995, Hidalgo said, Metrolink will lay enough new ties and rails to make up “almost an entire second track” along that route.

Metrolink will also install fiber-optic communications equipment to replace an antiquated signaling system that passes orders from dispatchers to trains. The dispatching center itself was shifted on March 28 to Los Angeles Amtrak workers (under contract with Metrolink) from an office in Schaumburg, Ill.

Reynolds travels anonymously at the newspaper’s expense, accepting no special discounts or subsidized trips. To reach him, write Travel Insider, Los Angeles Times, Times Mirror Square, Los Angeles 90053.