Contenders, Pretenders

There’s a good chance that the album of the year is included in this edition of the guide--a way to keep up on what’s noteworthy in pop on a budget of $50 a month. But will it be Hole, Nine Inch Nails or Pavement that will hold up best eight months from now?

March

Beck, “Mellow Gold” (DGC). Most of our truly valuable artists tell you enough about themselves in their music to let you immediately identify with their feelings or at least define their objectives. One of the most inviting things about young Beck Hansen (who headlines the Hong Kong Cafe on Tuesday) is how he remains such a mystery as he teases you with so many different influences (from Delta blues and Dylan to hip-hop) that you feel constantly disoriented. Nothing quite makes sense in Beck’s world, which is the point.

Nine Inch Nails, “The Downward Spiral” (Nothing/ TVT/Interscope). About three levels more intense than Beck, Trent Reznor explores the emptiness of the modern spirit with the raw instrumental force of Ministry and the seductive songwriting craft that Kurt Cobain brought to Nirvana. Stands with Nirvana’s “Nevermind” as one of the twin towers of ‘90s American rock.

Pavement, “Crooked Rain, Crooked Rain” (Matador). There aren’t many bands that remind you equally of Neil Young and the Replacements, but this quintet (which appears at the Palace on Thursday) can move from sweet country daydreams to wry social observation faster than you can say “Zuma” or “Tim.”

April

Iris DeMent, “My Life” (Warner Bros.). As a singer and writer, DeMent combines the angelic soulfulness of Emmylou Harris with the self-affirming independence of Jimmie Dale Gilmore. The songs speak of love and family ties with a traditional purity that is at once cleansing and inspiring.

Hole, “Live Through This” (DGC). It might sound sexist to compare Courtney Love to earlier female rockers, so I won’t dwell on how this major-label debut ranks with the best of Patti Smith and Chrissie Hynde. Instead, I’ll just say “Live” is a superb rock album, one that examines personal demons and desires with a vision that is both fearless and fragile.

Bonnie Raitt, “Longing in Their Hearts” (Capitol). It may have taken Raitt a long time to hit her commercial and creative stride, but she shows no signs of easing up. While this album has many of the classy musical strains of “Nick of Time” and “Luck of the Draw,” Raitt exhibits growth both in her authority as a singer and in her intimacy as a writer.