The Times Economic Index

Americans are feeling better about the economy--a shift that could be self-fulfilling if it translates into more consumer spending, economists say. Indeed, the number who believe that the nation is not in a recession has jumped dramatically since late last year, according to the Los Angeles Times Poll. (In fact, official minders of such things say the last national recession ended in March, 1991.)

April polling highlighted one unpleasant prospect that has rattled financial markets this year: Interest rates are widely expected to go up in the next few months. Only 10% of those surveyed expect a more favorable interest rate climate in three months, while 52% expect rates to be higher. Still, people feel moderately better about major purchases and the job outlook than they did in most of 1993.

The National Outlook Do you think we are in a recession?

April 94 Dec. 93 Sept. 93 June 93 Yes 51% 66 73 70 No 43 29 23 26

The Economic Outlook

How do you expect the nation’s economy to be performing three months from now?

April 94 Dec. 93 Sept. 93 June 93 Better 21% 21 15 16 Worse 13 15 25 23 Same 63 62 57 58

The Job Outlook

In your area, what will the unemployment situation be like in three months?

April 94 Dec. 93 Sept. 93 June 93 Better 26% 19 16 17 Worse 15 23 30 25 Same 58 56 52 55

Note: Numbers do not add up to 100% because “don’t know” responses are not shown.

HOW THE INDEX IS COMPILED: The Times Economic Index is based on a set of questions asked regularly by the Los Angeles Times Poll to measure Americans’ feelings about the strength of the economy. The questions include measures designed to gauge the current situation plus predictor questions that seek the public’s assessment of conditions three months in the future. The latest survey was conducted April 16-19 among 1,682 adults nationwide. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.