Votes for Ban Proving to Be Elusive Target

On the surface, the House vote today on banning 19 types of assault weapons draws on the same forces as last fall’s vote to impose a waiting period on handgun purchases.

But an analysis of the House Democratic leadership’s internal vote tally shows that subtly different dynamics are shaping this vote--and making it more difficult for advocates of the assault weapons ban to prevail.

The central problem for the White House and other gun control supporters is the defection of at least 45 legislators who last fall backed the so-called Brady bill, which requires a waiting period before handguns can be purchased, but are almost certain to oppose the assault weapons ban today, according to the analysis.

The majority of those defecting members come from a handful of states that restricted handgun purchases even before Congress passed the Brady legislation. In other words, assault ban advocates face the greatest defections from legislators for whom the earlier handgun vote was largely symbolic--a fact that suggests the difficulty of assembling a winning coalition on the new issue.

“The problem is largely from members in whose state Brady was academic,” said one House Democratic leadership aide.

At the same time, defections from the earlier gun control vote are also concentrated in heavily rural districts--where the prospect of banning weapons that could be used in hunting inspires far more resistance than the legislation restricting handguns, analysts said.

Hopes of supporters for passage of the ban depend largely on encouraging switches from suburban legislators, particularly Republicans, who opposed the Brady bill but may be open to the assault weapons ban. Just under 20 legislators who opposed Brady are leaning toward support of the assault weapons ban, or remain undecided, vote counts show.

The Brady bill passed the House with 238 votes last November. Counts of those who have switched allegiance since that vote show that an assault weapons ban remains within reach--but is an uphill climb.

To win, advocates must either convert more Brady opponents or reverse some of the apparent defections from the gun control camp. There is no question that either possibility would require many legislators to cast a vote with more tangible impact on their state than the Brady bill had.

When the Brady bill finally passed last November, legislators representing states with their own forms of gun control could portray their support for Brady as simply a step to force other states to meet equal standards, noted Susan Whitmore, the press secretary for Handgun Control Inc.

To a substantial extent, defections from the gun control camp are coming from legislators in that circumstance. In Florida, for instance, which imposes its own background check on handgun purchases, six Republican legislators who backed Brady are likely to vote against the assault weapons ban, Democratic vote-counters said. In New York five legislators are likely to switch from pro- to anti-gun control votes; in California, Indiana and North Carolina four; Michigan and Ohio three; in Tennessee and Wisconsin at least two each.

All of those states impose at least some restrictions on handgun purchases, either waiting periods or background checks, according to a House Democratic compilation.

The second trend, the defection of rural members, is apparent in figures showing that of about 45 members believed to be switching from yes votes on the Brady bill to no votes on the assault weapons ban, about two-thirds come from districts where at least three of every 10 voters live in rural areas. Another 10 come from districts where at least one of every seven voters live in rural areas.

Those numbers underscore the success that opponents led by the National Rifle Assn. have had in painting the proposed ban as a risk to weapons used in hunting.

These two trends appear to be contributing more to the precarious state of the proposed ban than partisan considerations. Of about 45 members viewed as likely to switch camps in today’s vote, about 25 are Republican and nearly 20 are Democrats, with about half the defecting Democrats coming from Southern states.

Hopes of pulling out the vote are centered on suburban legislators who opposed the Brady bill, but are leaning toward support of the assault weapons ban. These include suburban Republicans like Peter T. King of New York and Jay C. Kim of Diamond Bar.

“The suburbanites are the ones who most are feeling their constituent pressure on violence,” said the House Democratic leadership aide.

But the gun control advocates’ challenge is being stiffened by defections from a half dozen suburban legislators who backed the Brady bill, including California Republican Bill Baker of Danville and Rep. Curt Weldon (R-Pa.).