CBS on the Prowl to Replace 8 Stations Lost in Fox Raid : Television: Search could thwart plans for two new networks.

Fox’s historic raid on eight CBS affiliates this week could cause serious problems for Paramount and Warner Bros. as they try to launch their own fifth networks next year.

With CBS on the prowl to replace the affiliates it is losing in such key markets as Detroit, Atlanta and Cleveland, those stations that presently intend to align with the Paramount or WB network have become obvious targets, analysts say.

“Stations that were going to be a Paramount or WB affiliate now have the option of going with CBS,” said Matt Shapiro, a vice president at MMT Sales Inc., who advises stations on programming. “You have to assume that, given the choice, somebody is going to go with an established network rather than a start-up.”

With the exception of Paramount’s announcement that it would use its spinoff “Star Trek: Voyager” series as the anchor for its network, neither company has disclosed much about its programming plans.

The Paramount Network, which is a joint venture with TV station group Chris-Craft, plans to go on the air with two nights of programming in January. WB is starting with one night and says it will expand to two by the end of the year.

Paramount and Warner Bros. have been competing to sign up independent TV stations around the country. So far Paramount has aligned with 36 affiliates covering 47% of U.S. television homes, and WB has signed 22 affiliates, along with cable channel WGN-TV, that WB says will give it exposure to 73% of all TV homes.

The problem is that there are only a limited number of TV stations in each market, so an affiliation swap can set off a chain reaction of other switches. The smaller the market, the fewer the available outlets and the more likely a Paramount or WB affiliate is at risk.

Each of the major broadcast networks has slightly more than 200 affiliates, but the top 30 markets account for 50% of all TV households. Since the networks own the majority of affiliates in the top 10 markets, the battleground will be in the 10th to 30th biggest markets.

For example, in St. Louis (market No. 18), the ABC affiliate KTVI-TV will become a Fox affiliate, forcing ABC to seek another outlet in that market.

The most obvious scenario would have ABC partnering with KDNL-TV, the soon-to-be former Fox affiliate which is on Channel 30, or KPLR-TV (Channel 11), which has agreed to become a WB affiliate. But KPLR would be the favored station since it is a VHF outlet.

And in Phoenix (the 20th-largest market), WB has affiliated with KPHO-TV. Paramount will partner with KUTP, which will not change, because the station is owned by its partner Chris-Craft. CBS affiliate KSAZ-TV will become the Fox affiliate, leaving CBS the choice of picking up former Fox partner KNXV-TV, which is on Channel 15, or going after the more desirable KPHO-TV (Channel 5). Should CBS make a run on the ABC or NBC affiliates, whichever network is dislodged would also likely go after KPHO-TV before seeking the UHF independents in the market.

Jamie Kellner, the former president of Fox Broadcasting who was integral in launching the fourth network and is now president of WB, said fears that the Fox raid on CBS affiliates will affect either WB or Paramount are “silly.” Kellner said the four other networks have already picked off “the best stations,” and CBS will “poach” ABC and NBC affiliates.

But the situation promises to become even more complicated in the months ahead.

Fox Chairman Rupert Murdoch has told his station executives that he wants VHF affiliates in all of the top 30 markets. Murdoch has been trying to get Westinghouse to sell to Fox its TV stations in Philadelphia, San Francisco and Baltimore--all but one of them NBC affiliates--but Westinghouse so far has refused. Some, however, expect him to buy the Philadelphia station.

And CBS, badly shaken by the surprise attack on its affiliates, was rumored on Thursday to be mounting a counter bid for Argyle Television Holding Inc., part of the group of four TV stations that New World Communications Group is assembling to own 12 Fox affiliates.

CBS Broadcast Group President Howard Stringer, while downplaying the effect the raid would have on the network, said Thursday in a meeting with reporters that CBS would consider investing minority stakes in TV stations to secure affiliation agreements--signaling that the affiliate wars are far from over.