THE TIMES POLL : Brown Leads Democrats as Troubles Plague Wilson

With the primary election for governor less than two weeks off, Kathleen Brown is maintaining a comfortable lead over her Democratic rivals, according to the Los Angeles Times Poll, while Republican Gov. Pete Wilson continues to wallow in troubled political waters.

State Treasurer Brown held a 17-point lead over her nearest contender, Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, among the 662 registered Democrats interviewed. That gap--just about the same as it was in late March--narrowed to 12 points when limited to those Democrats who said they were likely to vote in the June 7 primary.

The poll indicated that many Democrats were not unalterably committed to their candidate at this point and might reconsider their choice. But those who favored Garamendi appeared just as likely as Brown supporters to change their minds.

The third Democratic candidate, state Sen. Tom Hayden, trailed at 10%, but there were hints that Hayden may have gotten a boost from his performance in the three Democratic gubernatorial debates held Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday--while the poll was under way. The poll was conducted Saturday through Wednesday.

In incomplete samples during the final two days of polling, his numbers rose to the mid-teens. His standing now could be higher than the poll numbers suggest, Times Poll Director John Brennan said.

Otherwise, there appeared to be no dramatic reshuffling of the race as a result of the debates, he said.

April and May--the period since the previous Times poll--are generally the months in which people begin to tune in to a primary election campaign in California; candidates launch advertising drives and they begin campaigning more vigorously.

All those things occurred in the governor’s contest this spring, but seemed to have little impact on the balance of the race.

The only thing that appeared to cause a significant shift in support for candidates was heavy television advertising by two wealthy Republicans who had been virtually unknown statewide. Senate candidate Michael Huffington and gubernatorial hopeful Ron Unz boosted their standings significantly by pouring millions of dollars into television advertising.

The poll found that a boost in optimism about the California economy in the early months of 1994 has leveled off, as did Wilson’s job approval rating. From a low point of 28% in the autumn of 1992, following that summer’s protracted budget stalemate, Wilson’s job rating made a slow climb back to 39% in March. It is now at 38%, basically unchanged.

Last fall, more than half the Californians polled believed that the state was mired in a serious recession. The number dropped significantly in March to 35%. This week the figure remained virtually unchanged at 34%.

Only one in four thought that things in California generally were going in the right direction. Nearly two-thirds said they thought that California was on the wrong track.

“That’s just terrible news for an incumbent,” Brennan said.

At this point, Wilson does not seem to face a serious threat to winning the Republican nomination for a second term over his surprise Republican challenger, Unz, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur. Unz got the support of 29% of 542 registered Republicans to Wilson’s 52%. Among likely voters, the spread was 57% for Wilson and 31% for Unz. The relatively large Unz vote shows that disaffection with Wilson extends to the Republican core.

Unz was not included in the late March poll because he did not formally announce for governor until after that survey was taken. The Unz campaign said that its own polls gave him about 10% of the GOP support at the time.

But the governor trailed Democrats Brown and Garamendi by double digits in hypothetical matchups in a November general election.

Brennan said: “The governor faces the daunting political challenge of seeking reelection in a time of continuing pessimism and at time when improvements in the consumer outlook appear to have stalled.”

In California’s U.S. Senate race, first-term Rep. Huffington of Santa Barbara moved ahead of former Rep. William E. Dannemeyer for the Republican nomination after spending at least $4 million of his own money on television advertising, most of it attacking the Democratic incumbent, Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Huffington’s support more than doubled during the period.

Among all registered Republicans, Huffington led Dannemeyer 27% to 18%, with a third candidate, Kate Squires, getting 10%. Huffington’s lead over Dannemeyer was larger, 35% to 21%, among most likely voters, but a third of the Republicans still had not decided how they would vote.

Huffington’s ad campaign also appeared to have had an effect on Feinstein, who has no major opposition in the Democratic primary and did not run any television ads. Although she scored some significant and highly publicized Senate victories in Washington during the period, her approval rating among all 1,984 adults polled dropped from 52% to 47%.

Feinstein led Huffington 52% to 38% and Dannemeyer 53% to 35% in a hypothetical matchup among all 1,471 registered voters.

The poll found four overriding issues for the California electorate: crime, the economy, education and illegal immigration. In the race for governor, Wilson outscores his opponents for his positions on two issues he has emphasized for nearly a year, crime and immigration.

Wilson, who says the California economy is coming back, and Brown, who has criticized the governor for his management of the state during the recession, are roughly equal in getting support for their stands on the economy.

The one area in which Brown has a substantial edge is in education, which Brennan said has the potential of being “the sleeper issue” in California this year.

In the race for governor, the poll results generally indicate that Garamendi has slightly broader appeal throughout the electorate than Brown. Garamendi has greater appeal among Republicans and outscores Wilson in a hypothetical matchup by 14 points. Brown edges Wilson by 10.

Garamendi gets favorable ratings from a remarkable number of Republicans, 41% to 19%. But Brown enjoys greater popularity among Democrats, who will be choosing the party nominee June 7. Brown is viewed favorably by 66% of Democrats polled and unfavorably by only 15%.

“Among the group (of Democrats) that likes both Brown and Garamendi, she continues to run ahead comfortably,” Brennan said.

Garamendi does somewhat better against Brown among Democrats who are mostly likely to vote largely because he enjoys greater popularity among older people, who tend to be the most faithful voters.

Brown is particularly strong with voters who consider themselves liberal, scores well in the major urban centers of Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay Area and with minority voters. Among various Democratic groups, Garamendi outscores Brown only among the relatively small segment of conservative Democratic voters.

Family background and her record in office figure strongly in determining why voters like or dislike Brown. Fifteen percent of those who like her do so because of her family ties. Her father and brother were governors of California.

Nineteen percent like Brown because of her record.

Among those who dislike Brown, 26% said it was because of her family background. Among Democrats who said they do not like Brown, 14% said the reason was her position on the death penalty. Brown personally opposes the death penalty although she insists that she would enforce the state’s capital punishment law just as vigorously as Garamendi or Wilson, both strong supporters of the death penalty.

Among voters who like Garamendi, 42% said it was because of his record as the state’s first elected insurance commissioner.

Among voters who did not like Garamendi, 44% said it was his record as commissioner.

Wilson’s favorable ratings have dropped slightly since March. Forty-three percent say they like the governor and 52% said they do not.

When asked to volunteer reasons for liking Wilson, the most-frequently mentioned were because he is trying to do a good job (19%), his stands on illegal immigration (19%), and because of a feeling he gets things done (10%).

Those who do not like Wilson say he is ineffective (14%), a weak leader (10%), cite the recession (12%), or cite his cuts in public education budgets (13%).

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,984 California adults, by telephone, from May 21 through 25. The sample includes 1,471 registered voters, 662 of whom are Democrats and 542 Republicans. Of those groups, 326 are likely Democratic voters and 268 likely Republican voters. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. The sample is weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the total adult and registered voter samples is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For all registered Democrats and Republicans it is 4 and 5 points, respectively; for likely Democratic and Republicans voters it is 6 and 7 points, respectively. For certain other subgroups the error margin will vary. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

THE TIMES POLL

Brown, Wilson Hold Leads

Democrat Kathleen Brown and Republican Pete Wilson lead the race for their parties’ gubernatorial nominations. Rep. Michael Huffington has the edge in the Republican U.S. Senate contest.

CAMPAIGN FOR GOVERNOR If the Democratic primary were held today and the candidates were Kathleen Brown, John Garamendi and Tom Hayden, for whom would you vote? Likely Democratic Voters Brown: 47% Garamendi: 35% Hayden: 10% Don’t know: 8%

If the Republican primary were held today and the candidates were Pete Wilson and Ron Unz, for whom would you vote? Likely Republican Voters Wilson: 57% Unz: 31% Someone else: -* Don’t know: 12%

If the general election were held today and the candidates were Brown and Wilson, for whom would you vote? Brown: 51% Wilson: 41% Someone else: 2% Don’t know: 6%

If the general election were held today and the candidates were Garamendi and Wilson, for whom would you vote? Garamendi: 52% Wilson: 38% Someone else: 1% Don’t know: 9%

Why do you have a favorable impression of Brown? Nothing in particular: 20% Good job as treasurer: 19% Like Brown family: 15%

Why do you have an unfavorable impression of Brown? Don’t like her family: 26% Nothing in particular: 12% Too liberal: 11%

Why do you have a favorable impression of Garamendi? Job as insurance commissioner: 42% Nothing in particular: 21% Good leader: 11%

Why do you have an unfavorable impression of Garamendi? Job as insurance commissioner: 44% Nothing in particular: 10% Too wishy-washy: 8% Disagree with philosophy: 8%

Why do you have a favorable impression of Wilson? Views on illegal immigration: 19% Doing the best he can: 19% Just like him: 15%

Why do you have an unfavorable impression of Wilson? Ineffective: 14% Hurts education: 13% Hasn’t helped economy: 12%

CAMPAIGN FOR U.S. SENATE

If the Republican primary were held today and the candidates were William Dannemeyer, Michael Huffington and Kate Squires, for whom would you vote? Likely Republican Voters Huffington: 35% Dannemeyer: 21% Squires: 8% Don’t know: 36%

If the general election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Dannemeyer, for whom would you vote? All Voters Feinstein: 53% Dannemeyer: 35% Someone else: 1% Don’t know: 11%

If the general election were held today and the candidates were Feinstein and Huffington, for whom would you vote? All Voters Feinstein: 52% Huffington: 38% Someone else: 1% Don’t know: 9%

Note: Unless otherwise noted, answers are among registered voters

* Less than 0.5%