Korean Nuclear Inspections: Elements of Crisis

North Korea has vaulted onto front pages as Pyongyang and Washington argue about a difficult issue--nuclear proliferation. In brief, does the North have nuclear weapons or doesn’t it? And if it has, what dangers does that pose to South Korea, the region and the world? Here are the key elements in this controversy:

Question: Why are the United States and North Korea at odds?

Answer: The United States suspects that North Korea has acquired nuclear weapons. But Pyongyang won’t allow international inspectors to test its reactor and other nuclear plants so they can tell for sure. Under the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Pyongyang is obliged to allow inspectors to do their work. It hasn’t.

Q. Does North Korea actually have nuclear weapons now?

A. No one really knows. The CIA believes that Pyongyang probably has processed enough plutonium to manufacture at least one nuclear bomb and may well have one or two more such weapons in its arsenal. North Korea denies having any nuclear weapons and has not tested any.

Q. Why should anyone care whether Pyongyang has a nuclear arsenal?

A. Two reasons: First, North Korea would be able to use its nuclear weapons to threaten South Korea, Taiwan and Japan--intensifying pressures in the entire region.

Second, Pyongyang could also sell nuclear bombs to other countries, such as Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria--as it has in the case of missiles and other weapons. And if North Korea had a bomb, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan would probably push to acquire their own nuclear weapons.

Q. What is the International Atomic Energy Agency and why does it have any business in North Korea?

A. The IAEA is a U.N.-related organization set up to serve as a clearinghouse and inspection agency to help administer the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Based in Vienna, it has a staff of about 100 bureaucrats and nuclear scientists to help carry out this task.

Q. What are nuclear fuel rods and why are they so important?

A. Fuel for a nuclear reactor is shaped into thousands of rods, which are inserted into the reactor’s core. In North Korea’s case, the fuel is unenriched uranium--a cheap material from its own mines. The problem is that it is easy to turn unenriched uranium into weapons-grade plutonium-239--the material needed for nuclear weapons. This is done by removing used fuel rods from a reactor and extracting the plutonium during reprocessing. The reactor core at Yongbyon holds seven to 10 tons of fuel--enough to provide plutonium for four or five nuclear bombs.

Q. How can IAEA inspectors use the used fuel rods to determine whether a country such as North Korea is diverting its spent fuel to make nuclear bombs?

A. They analyze the fuel to see how much radioactive waste and contamination they contain, which tells them how old the fuel is and, therefore, how recently the North Koreans replaced their spent fuel. That, in turn, can help them tell whether fuel has been reprocessed.

Q. What brought on the current crisis?

A. North Korea decided abruptly two weeks ago to shut down its reactor and begin removing fuel rods--leaving IAEA inspectors high and dry. IAEA officials believed that they had a few more months to negotiate over inspection rights.

The shutdown meant they had to act quickly or they would lose the chance to analyze the spent rods completely and tell for sure whether Pyongyang has been making nuclear weapons.

IAEA inspectors visited the Yongbyon reactor, but were denied access to the materials and records they needed. To compound the problem, the North Koreans removed the spent fuel rods so rapidly that the IAEA inspectors were unable to complete their work in time.

As a result, while the IAEA has confirmed that North Korea is not diverting spent fuel now for use in nuclear weapons, it could not tell whether the Koreans did so in 1989--the last time the reactor was shut down.

That was the key point in determining whether Pyongyang actually has nuclear weapons. Since the United States had warned repeatedly that that would be the crunch-point in its dealings with North Korea, the Administration has begun a push to get the U.N. Security Council to impose punitive economic sanctions against Pyongyang.

Q. How likely is it that the Administration will succeed in persuading the Security Council to impose sanctions?

A. It’s unclear. Although the Western allies generally agree that it is time to crack down on North Korea, China and Russia--two of five permanent members of the Security Council that have power to veto a sanctions resolution--say they still are not ready to support sanctions. The Administration is trying to work out a compromise. But it may have to settle for gradual imposition of sanctions.

Washington also faces resistance from South Korea and Japan, both of which fear that imposing sanctions on North Korea might spur Pyongyang into military action.

Q. What impact would imposing sanctions have?

A. Proponents say that imposing sanctions would squeeze North Korea economically and might force the regime of longtime leader Kim Il Sung to halt its nuclear program. The North Korean economy already is in dire straits. Food is at a premium. And fuel supplies are short.

Others--mainly the Russians and Chinese--argue that tightening the noose now will only make the regime more desperate and force it to become even more recalcitrant. There also is some question--even among Western economists--about how effective sanctions would be.

Q. Would the United States be ready to intervene militarily if the situation got worse? And who would be the winner of such a conflict?

A. Presumably it would. The Clinton Administration has pledged to protect South Korea. The United States has 37,000 troops in the country. But the United States would only act in defense--that is, North Korea would have to be preparing to launch an attack.

The United States and South Korea have the firepower and troops ultimately to win a war with the North. But the allies would suffer heavy casualties. And North Korea is capable of doing extensive damage to Seoul, which is only a few miles from the border.