Through the Glass--Darkly

The race for governor begins today. Expect few surprises. Both Pete Wilson and Kathleen Brown are modern, well-disciplined candidates. They have surrendered their hearts, minds and souls to the campaign handlers, and the campaign handlers control the script. For this reason, it is possible to report with full confidence that, between now and November. . .

Wilson will remind Californians 456 times that he was a Marine.

Brown will tell audiences at least twice a day that she is a grandmother.

Wilson will produce $10 million worth of television commercials blaming undocumented workers from Mexico for California’s problems. Wilson will argue that illegal immigrants have drained the state of money needed to reform public schools, put down riots, retrain rocket scientists, break the Sacramento stalemate, fill potholes, cleanse the environment and fight tooth decay.

Brown will produce $10 million worth of television commercials blaming Pete Wilson for California’s problems. She will make the case that Wilson caused the recession and was culpable in the untimely end of the Cold War, an event which, of course, led to so much economic misery in Southern California.

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Both candidates will position themselves as tough on crime. Every Wilson speech will contain a reference to poor Polly Klaas, the Petaluma child whose murder energized the so-called “three strikes” movement. Brown, conversely, will make frequent reference to Melvin Carter, the serial rapist whose bungled parole ignited a political firestorm for Wilson. Wilson will promote locking up criminals and throwing away the key. He’ll talk frequently about the death penalty. Brown will promote locking up criminals and throwing away the key. Questions about the death penalty, she’ll leave to her handlers.

Both candidates are state officeholders--with records to review. Wilson will describe how he steered the ship of state through the shoals of natural disaster. Brown will tell how efforts to retrofit freeways and purchase firefighting seaplanes became stalled on Wilson’s watch. Wilson will boast to voters about his winning stance on NAFTA, but none will remember what NAFTA was. Brown will ignore her failed opposition to NAFTA and instead brag to audiences about her record as state treasurer selling bonds. The audiences will yawn.

It will get personal and mean. Wilson won’t let anyone forget that Kathleen Brown is Jerry Brown’s sister. Brown won’t let anyone forget that she is Pat Brown’s daughter. Wilson will revisit Medflies and Rose Bird. Brown will compare the number of jobs gained during the administrations of her father and brother to the number of jobs lost during Wilson’s tenure. Wilson will hint at Brown’s “softness.” His aides will keep calling her “Kathy,” because it annoys her. They’ll suggest she’s a “cheerleader.” This all is code talk aimed at the ESPN crowd. Brown is a woman, a plain fact of nature that the Wilsonites will seek to exploit. So will she.

Brown will want it both ways on the gender question. At some photo ops, she’ll arrive by station wagon, brood in tow, California’s mom. At other times, she’ll rumble up in a Peterbilt and arm-wrestle with a reporter or two. A woman, but a tough woman--that will be her stance. Comparisons to Ann Richards and Margaret Thatcher will not be discouraged.

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Forsaking party ideologues, Wilson will present himself as a moderate Republican--hard on crime, friendly to the environment, tough enough to raise taxes, a former Marine. Brown will cast herself as a new kind of Democrat--hard on crime, friendly to the economy, tough enough to say no to new taxes, a grandmother. Barry Goldwater’s famous line about there “not being a dime’s difference” between the two parties will be quoted on cable television 42 times apiece by Patrick Caddell and Sherry Bebitch Jeffe.

As the race unfolds, the consultants will survey the populace constantly and fine-tune the messages whenever needed. It’s inevitable that the polls of both sides will produce pretty much the same results. Both sides will see at once what Californians fear most. And make no mistake. Fear will be the operative emotion in this race. Hope is for suckers.

The end result will be a political contest almost devoid of competing political ideology--a truly modern phenomenon. Wilson and Brown are two centrists, both heaving to the middle, both better it seems at reading polls than leading them, both primed to campaign around the premise of a failed California, to tickle the same fears.

Yes, they will disagree. They will brawl fiercely over questions of character and personal history, over particulars of government process. In truth, however, they will split on only one fundamental question--who to blame? It will not be a campaign to lift the spirits of Californians. It will be a campaign to endure.