NEWS ANALYSIS : Wilson Outpolls Brown on O.C. Party Support : Politics: Governor faring much better with local Republicans than his rival is among county Democrats.

Like the rest of the state, Orange County voters apparently held their noses Tuesday when they chose Republican Gov. Pete Wilson and Democratic state Treasurer Kathleen Brown to lead their party’s tickets in the November general election, according to exit polling by the Los Angeles Times Poll.

But of the two, the poll found Wilson in much better standing among local Republicans than Brown is with the Democrats, although Orange County GOP voters expressed disaffection with Wilson by giving his relatively unknown opponent, Ron Unz, almost 43% of the vote in the primary election.

On a hot local issue that is expected to be on the Orange County ballot in November, local voters were split on whether a commercial airport should be developed at the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station: one-fourth said they remain undecided on the issue.

Orange County primary voters, asked which two issues most swayed their vote, had the same concerns as statewide voters: 38% listed crime as their top issue, followed by illegal immigration. Local voters were more worried about illegal immigration than their counterparts statewide, with 32% listing it first, compared to 24% throughout California.

Crime and illegal immigration are the two issues Wilson focused on during his primary campaign and the two that proved a weakness for Brown, according to the poll, which surveyed 1,209 local voters as they left their polling places Tuesday.

Still, Wilson has his work cut out for him in Orange County, where statewide GOP candidates usually need more than a 2-to-1 margin in the general election to offset the Democratic strongholds in the Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area.

Asked to choose who they would vote for in November, Orange County primary voters picked Wilson by 55%, compared to 24% for Brown--a clear majority--but perhaps not enough to ensure victory for Wilson in November.

The incumbent governor’s job rating among all local voters was at 41%--just one point higher than statewide, and his approval score among local Republicans was 54%, compared to 60% for Republicans statewide.

The statewide general election campaign for governor will be fought by Brown and Wilson from their trenches in the center of the political spectrum. Both are middle-of-the-road politicians, moderate on most issues. They will do battle for the potential crossover voter, independents, Ronald Reagan Democrats and moderate Republican women.

But in Orange County, Wilson faces the tricky challenge of appealing to the center while attracting votes from both moderate and conservative Republicans.

In an election night analysis of the high vote for Unz, local GOP Chairman Thomas Fuentes cautioned Wilson to heed the warning of local Republicans and adopt a more conservative message.

Almost two of every five Republicans apparently held their noses while voting for Wilson, calling him the “best of a bad lot.” Despite those numbers, and the strong showing by Unz, Wilson emerged from the primary with solid support from party conservatives and those over 65, who are generally considered conservative.

The poll showed that 53% of GOP conservatives said they voted for Wilson, and he also received a whopping 70% from voters over 65. The governor also won the support of 57% of the women.

When given a choice between Brown and Wilson, “Republican conservative voters rush back to Wilson even though many cast their ballots for Unz,” said John Brennan, who conducted the Times Poll.

Three-fourths of the local GOP voters, who are more conservative than Republicans statewide, “will come home to Wilson in November,” Brennan said, with only 9% saying they would cross party lines to vote for Brown.

Statewide, the numbers are similar: 72% of Republicans said they will back the governor in the fall, with only 10% favoring Brown.

By Wednesday, as local Republican leaders gathered to honor Wilson at a “unity reception,” Fuentes was sounding more certain that the party could unite behind Wilson.

“We’ve done it time and time again for Pete in Orange County and we’re prepared to do it again,” he said. “Orange County will rally again.”

On the Democratic side, support for Brown’s candidacy among her own party’s voters is much softer in Orange County than it is statewide. But Orange County is not as critical for Democrats as it is for the GOP.

Here, 53% of the Democrats said they would back her in November, while almost one-fourth said they would defect to Wilson; 24% said they are unsure. Statewide, three out of five Democrats said they would stay with Brown in the fall.

Brown is vulnerable in Orange County on the issues of crime and illegal immigration, and she apparently failed to appeal to conservative or even some moderate Democrats here and statewide.

While Brown defeated her nearest opponent, Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, by almost 11 points in local balloting, Garamendi received a solid majority of support from voters who listed crime and immigration as their top concerns.

Ironically, those points “were not even on the issues list” two years ago when the economy dominated the presidential debate, Brennan said. And when local voters were asked if they were financially better off or worse than they were four years ago, only one-fifth of the voters said “better,” according to the survey.

During the primary campaign, Brown spoke mainly about the need to fix the education system and improve the state’s economy--issues that ranked fourth and fifth in the eyes of local voters.

Like Brown, U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein does not get many Republican crossover voters in Orange County. Only 8% of the local GOP voters said they would leave their nominee, Rep. Michael Huffington (R-Santa Barbara) to support her. Conversely, Huffington draws 22% of the local Democrats.

Huffington, who defeated his nearest rival, former Fullerton Congressman William E. Dannemeyer by 10 points in local balloting, did slightly better among local party conservatives than Dannemeyer, and was strongly backed by the elderly.

On the El Toro question, the strongest support for a commercial airport came from men, with 44% saying they favor the proposed November initiative, and about one-third voicing opposition. Almost half the women voters said they oppose the measure.

Overall, in both the Democratic and Republican primaries, a majority of local voters in Tuesday’s election were older than 50 years of age, which is indicative of the record low turnout in the county. Almost 90% were white, with Latino and Asia American voters each casting about 5% of the vote.

Times staff writer Tammerlin Drummond contributed to this report.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 5,234 voters, including 2,656 Democratic primary and 2,275 Republican primary voters as they exited 110 polling places across the state. The poll included an over-sample of 1,209 Orange County voters, including 405 Democrats and 741 Republicans interviewed at 25 county polling places. Precincts were chosen based on the pattern of turnout in past primary elections. The survey was by confidential questionnaire. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the entire statewide sample is plus or minus three percentage points; for the Orange County sample it is four points. For some subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Because the survey does not include absentee voters or those who declined to participate when approached, actual returns and demographic estimates by the interviewers were used to slightly adjust the sample. Assisting The Times in this exit poll was Davis Market Research Services of Calabasas.

Los Angeles Times Poll: Top O.C. Issues: Crime, Immigration, Taxes

Crime was the No. 1 issue that helped voters decide Tuesday’s gubernatorial races.

* Which issues, if any, were most important to you in deciding how you would vote for governor? (Two responses allowed)

Orange County Statewide Crime 38% 37% Immigration 32% 24% Taxes 24% 19% Education 19% 24% Economy 18% 20% Ethics in government 14% 12% State budget 10% 12% Bringing business into state 9% 7% Health care 4% 6% Environment 3% 3%

Note: Only top 10 responses shown

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

Los Angeles Times Poll: The El Toro Initiative

If the November election were held today and there was an initiative on the ballot to convert El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into a commercial airport, would you vote for or against that initiative?

Vote for Vote against Don’t know All Orange County voters 36% 40% 24% Party affiliation Democrats 36% 45% 19% Independents 36% 37% 27% Republicans 36% 39% 25% Gender Men 44% 34% 22% Women 28% 46% 26% Income Less than $20,000 26% 55% 19% More than $60,000 41% 38% 21%

Source: Los Angeles Times Exit Poll