Initiative Could Be Wild Card in Fall Election

Another landmark California ballot initiative--the kind that polarizes the state and sends a loud message nationwide--is on the verge of qualifying for the November election. And if it does, the trend toward lower voter turnouts likely will be reversed, at least temporarily.

Republicans are gleeful. Democrats are scrambling.

The measure is SOS, a catchy abbreviation for “save our state”--as in, save it from illegal immigrants. Among other things, it would deny public education to illegal immigrants.

Treasurer Kathleen Brown, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, already has denounced the proposal as “mean-spirited and dangerous.” Gov. Pete Wilson has indicated he’ll warmly support it.

Neither U.S. Senate candidate--Democratic incumbent Dianne Feinstein or GOP Rep. Michael Huffington--has taken a stand. But they’ll have to, as ultimately will every candidate for statewide or legislative office.

“It’s a wedge issue,” notes a sponsor, conservative Assemblyman Richard L. Mountjoy (R-Arcadia). “You either have to be for it or against it. You can’t be in the middle.”

Candidates who don’t take a stand will be branded as cowards. When they do step up, their positions will send a signal to voters about the kind of politicians they are.

And when Californians finally cast their ballots, they will send a signal across the country about the political importance of illegal immigration.

If the measure fails, the Clinton Administration and Congress likely will feel little pressure to heed the pleas of California and other big states for more money to fund immigrant services. If the initiative passes, it will quickly catch the attention of a President who probably cannot be reelected in 1996 unless he again carries California.

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Because illegal immigration strikes such an emotional chord, this initiative has the potential to join a list of historic ballot props that have influenced voting for elective office and swayed national policy-makers.

One such measure was Proposition 13, the 1978 property tax cutter that ignited a nationwide anti-tax revolt. Wilson, then the San Diego mayor, joined most Establishment politicians in opposing the initiative, and it cost him votes in a failed bid for the gubernatorial nomination.

Another was Proposition 14, which in 1964 repealed an act banning racial discrimination in real estate sales. The Supreme Court later overturned the measure, but Gov. Edmund G. (Pat) Brown’s strong opposition to it cost him politically. Back in 1958, however, Brown capitalized on voter rejection of an anti-labor “right to work” initiative in winning the governorship.

The SOS initiative would cut off most public services for illegal immigrants.

Denying public schooling would violate a 1982 Supreme Court decision, but sponsors--and Wilson--want to force the court to reconsider its 5-4 ruling. All health services except emergency care also would be forbidden. Law enforcement agencies would have to cooperate with the INS in finding illegal immigrants. And school and health officials would be required to snitch on children and parents they suspect of being here illegally.

The initiative needs the signatures of 384,974 registered voters to land on the November ballot. The deadline is June 30. Sponsors turned in nearly 600,000 signatures and so far 204,342 have been validated. Los Angeles County still has roughly 200,000 it hasn’t checked.

Backers say they don’t think any delaying games are being played.

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Wilson and other Republican politicians foresee SOS performing the same role as an anti-handgun measure--Proposition 15--did in 1982. It spurred to the polls many white males who otherwise would have stayed home. They not only helped bury the gun prop but helped narrowly elect Gov. George Deukmejian.

“The keys to this campaign are two words-- taxpayers and citizens ,” says Barbara Kiley, the mayor of Yorba Linda who, with her husband Bob Kiley, is managing SOS. “Those are the people we’re going to reach--citizen taxpayers who are tired of being ripped off.”

Brown envisions the initiative playing the same role as Wilson’s Proposition 165 did for Bill Clinton and other Democrats in 1992. Democratic operatives turned out poor people to help defeat the governor’s welfare cutbacks and also elect the party ticket.

In this race, Brown plans to target Latino voters who solidly oppose SOS and favor her. But she must be careful because whites overwhelmingly support the measure. Overall, according to the latest Times poll, voters back it by a 59% to 32% margin.

Good or bad, this proposition should add excitement to the ballot.