WORLD CUP USA ’94 / THE FIRST ROUND : SOCCER / GRAHAME L. JONES : Survival Course: Only 16 Can Pass
If Colombia does not defeat Switzerland in Palo Alto this afternoon, it will be flying home to Bogota and a very unpleasant welcome from the country’s soccer fans.
Similarly, if Morocco cannot find a way to beat the Netherlands in Orlando, Fla., on Wednesday, it will be on the next flight back to Casablanca.
It’s win-or-be-ousted time in the World Cup as the third series of first-round matches kicks off. From now on, every game will have something more on the line and every result will have added meaning.
By Thursday night, eight of the 24 World Cup teams will have been eliminated--the six fourth-place finishers and the two teams with the worst records among third-place teams--and the tournament will be poised to move into the knockout phase.
So far, only three teams--Brazil, Argentina and Belgium--have guaranteed themselves a berth in the final 16. An additional four teams--Switzerland, the United States, Germany and Sweden--are all but mathematically certain of a place in the second round.
That leaves 17 teams fighting for the remaining nine places, with some in much better position than others. The winners and runners-up in each group advance, along with the four with the best record among third-place teams.
The breakdown of who will play whom when and where is impossible to figure out at this point since the possibilities are numerous. Here, however, is a breakdown of what each team has to accomplish in its third game to survive.
ARGENTINA: Already through to the next round, the Argentines can take it easy against the Bulgarians in Dallas on Thursday, perhaps using the game to give some other players World Cup experience. A tie would be enough to give them first place in Group D, something they might achieve even if they lose.
BELGIUM: Saturday’s victory over the Dutch gives the Belgians a little breathing room too. They have qualified for the second round and can win Group F with a tie against Saudi Arabia in Washington on Wednesday.
BOLIVIA: The luckless Bolivians will be making an early exit from their first World Cup in 44 years after back-to-back losses. To have even a slight chance of survival, they have to beat Spain in Chicago on Monday, but with their key players suspended, they have little hope of doing that.
BRAZIL: The samba beat continues and will grow louder as the tournament progresses. Having already earned a second-round berth, the Brazilians simply will be looking to fine-tune their engine when they play Sweden in the Pontiac Silverdome on Tuesday. A tie would clinch first place in Group B.
BULGARIA: Beaten by the Nigerians, Bulgaria has a chance to make it through to the next stage but will have to defeat Greece in Chicago today and hope for a positive result against Argentina in Dallas on Thursday to do so.
CAMEROON: The loss to Brazil put a big dent in the African team’s hopes, but Roger Milla and friends can make it to the second round with a victory over Russia in Palo Alto on Tuesday. A loss or a tie would mean elimination.
COLOMBIA: The biggest disappointment of the tournament has one last chance to salvage something from the wreckage when it plays Switzerland today in Palo Alto. Anything less than victory by a sizable margin will condemn the South Americans to the scrap heap.
GERMANY: Coach Berti Vogts’ squad is poised to win Group C but can only assure itself of that by defeating South Korea in Dallas on Monday. A tie should be enough to take the group title unless Spain beats Bolivia by more than two goals in Chicago that same afternoon.
GREECE: As World Cup debut appearances go, this one has been a disaster so far. Things do not figure to get any better today against Bulgaria in Chicago or on Thursday against Nigeria in Foxboro, Mass. The Greeks will be on their way home by Friday.
IRELAND: Group E, the so-called “group of death,” could slay any of its four members. The Irish cannot rely on a tie against Norway at Giants Stadium on Tuesday getting them through. They have to go for the victory.
ITALY: Like Ireland, Italy needs to defeat Mexico in Washington on Tuesday to be certain of staying in the tournament. The group’s complicated scenario means the score of each game is equally important as the result. In other words, a tie might not be enough to put the Italians through.
MEXICO: The Mexicans, as do the other teams in Group E, have a goal difference of zero, meaning they have scored as many goals as they have yielded. But because Mexico and Ireland have each scored twice compared to Italy’s and Norway’s once, they have a slight mathematical advantage. A victory over Italy in Washington would be the best way to resolve the puzzle.
MOROCCO: Two games, two losses and a minus-two goal difference has left the Moroccans on the verge of elimination. The Dutch should push them over the edge in Orlando on Wednesday. The Moroccans must win big, but they don’t have the guns to do so.
NETHERLANDS: The Dutch need to get at least a point against the Moroccans but will be going for all three after being shut out by Belgium on Saturday. A big win and a Belgian loss to Saudi Arabia on the same day would give Holland the Group F title.
NIGERIA: The adventurous and entertaining Nigerians need only a tie in their final first-round game, against Greece in Foxboro on Thursday, to clinch second place in Group D. A victory, which is more likely, would put them in position to win the group if Argentina falters.
NORWAY: The fourth-place team in Group E could become the first-place team by Tuesday night if it defeats Ireland at Giants Stadium. Like Italy, a tie might not be enough to advance.
ROMANIA: Which Romanian team shows up to play the United States this afternoon at the Rose Bowl will determine if Gheorghe Hagi and company finish first, second, third or even fourth in Group A. Romania defeated Colombia and then fell to Switzerland. Is it time for the tie that would assure both teams of advancing?
RUSSIA: An early flight back to Moscow and a cold reception there, even in the middle of summer, awaits the Russians if they do not defeat Cameroon in Palo Alto on Tuesday. A tie does them no good; they must win.
SAUDI ARABIA: Boosted by their first World Cup victory, over Morocco on Saturday, the Saudis have a chance to make the second round as one of the third-place teams, even if they lose. A tie against the Belgians in Washington on Wednesday should be good enough.
SOUTH KOREA: The South Koreans have played as hard as they know how and still face elimination unless they can somehow score what would be one of the World Cup’s great upsets by beating Germany in Dallas on Monday. Don’t hold your breath. A tie, however, is not beyond the realm of possibility.
SPAIN: Victory over the Bolivians in Chicago on Monday would guarantee Spain at least second place in Group C and, if Germany is tied by or loses to South Korea, the Spanish would win the group. A loss would eliminate Spain.
SWEDEN: The Swedes’ final first-round game is against Brazil, their opponent in the 1958 World Cup final. Sweden is virtually certain of qualifying and this will be a test to see just how strong it is. First and second place in Group B are at stake.
SWITZERLAND: A victory over Colombia in Palo Alto this afternoon could give the Swiss the Group A title. A tie would clinch second place. A loss would leave the Swiss no worse than third and probably still second. In other words, there is no pressure on Coach Roy Hodgson’s team.
UNITED STATES: This is it. Today’s game against Romania could put the United States in the second round for the first time since 1930. A victory or a tie at the Rose Bowl guarantees that. A loss will not be fatal because of the four points already won. There should be celebrations in Pasadena by 3 p.m. because a third-place team with four points should go to the next round.
Which is where the fun really begins.
