WORLD CUP USA ’94 / THE FIRST ROUND : U.S. Still Has Work to Do : Group A: Victory over Colombia is ancient history; game against unpredictable Romania at the Rose Bowl today is key to the immediate future.

Charting the U.S. World Cup team’s possible advance into the second round has become a cottage industry with the team during the last week, with much discussion of calculations and prognostications and scenarios. Few fully understand the various permutations, aside from the strong likelihood that the team will advance for the first time since 1930.

What the players understand is that they must try to ride the wave that has taken them to this unlikely place, after a tie against Switzerland and the stunning victory over Colombia. Much will depend on the outcome of today’s game against Romania, at 1 p.m. at the Rose Bowl, and the Switzerland-Colombia game at Stanford Stadium.

This much, in brief, is known: If the United States wins and Switzerland wins, or if both teams tie, first place in the group will be decided on goal differential, the difference between goals scored and goals given up. Switzerland is plus-3 and the United States is plus-1.

The United States wins the group outright if it wins today and Colombia beats Switzerland, and the Swiss win outright if they win and the United States loses. If the U.S. team ties and Switzerland loses, the U.S. team wins the group. Likewise, a Swiss tie and U.S. loss puts Switzerland at the top of the group.

Most scenarios involve the United States either winning the group or finishing second, but the possibility exists that it might finish third and still move on. Four of six third-place teams advance to the next round.

Winning the group is an alluring goal for two reasons: The U.S. team would stay at home and play in the Rose Bowl on July 3, and the Group A winner plays a “lesser” opponent--the third-place team from Group C, D or E.

If the U.S. finishes second, it plays the second-place finisher from Group C in RFK Stadium at Washington on July 2.

There are also complicated scenarios whereby the U.S. team doesn’t advance to the second round (see box, C1), but odds seem to be in the Americans’ favor.

The good news for the U.S. team is that to a large extent it controls its own destiny. The bad news is it must play one of the most unpredictable teams in the tournament. Even the Romanians admit they lack consistency.

“They are a very dangerous team,” U.S. assistant coach Sigi Schmid said Saturday. “You never know which side of them will show up. They are a difficult team to prepare for.”

For unpredictability, look no further than Gheorghe Hagi. Hagi is Romania’s midfield genius who has free rein and uses his dribbling skills to disrupt opposing defenses. Switzerland gave Hagi space to dribble and Romania scored a 4-1 victory. If Hagi is allowed into the penalty box, he might show why he’s known as a deadly finisher. He already has scored two goals in the tournament.

“It’s tough to shadow Hagi,” Schmid said. “He pops up all over the field. We’re a zone-oriented team and we won’t change that. We’re not going to assign anyone to him. Good players find a way to find the ball. Our object is that when he finds the ball, we get tight to him quickly. We don’t want to give him room.”

Along with Florin Raducioiu and Ilie Dumitrescu, Hagi leads an attack that likes to travel on the ground and up the middle of the field. The U.S. team was successful blunting Colombia’s direct attack, with the marking and ball-winning of Marcelo Balboa and Alexi Lalas.

“Between Raducioiu and Hagi, they’re a very dangerous team,” U.S. defender Paul Caligiuri said. “They come at you very direct and they’re a very skillful team, and even though they lost against Switzerland they created a lot of goal-scoring opportunities. They just couldn’t find the back of the net.”

The Romanian defense is suspect, but the Americans aren’t specific about what they might exploit.

“Bora would kill me if I said anything,” Schmid said, only half kidding. “Romania is different than the first two teams we faced. They play with two man markers and a sweeper. In front of them are two central midfielders that man-mark as well.

“When you play against a team that man-marks, it means you have to get movement off the ball. You have to look for the third man (coming into the attacking zone).”

One question mark for the U.S. attack is midfielder John Harkes, who has flu. He missed the afternoon practice Friday and did not leave his room Saturday. If he does play, the heat could take a toll and his playing time would be limited.

Consider the Possibilities

For the United States to not qualify for the second round, it would have to lose to Romania, and third-place teams in at least four other groups would have to have at least four points and better goal differences. That means at least four of the following five scenarios would have to occur:

1--Cameroon beats Russia.

2--South Korea beats Germany and Spain-Bolivia isn’t a tie.

3--a: Bulgaria beats Greece and ties or beats Argentina and Nigeria ties or beats Greece.

b: Bulgaria-Greece is a tie and Greece beats Nigeria and Bulgaria beats Argentina.

c: Bulgaria-Greece is a tie and Bulgaria beats Argentina and Nigeria ties or beats Greece.

d: Greece beats Bulgaria and ties Nigeria.

4--Ireland ties Norway or Italy ties Mexico.

5--Saudi Arabia ties or beats Belgium and the Netherlands ties or beats Morocco.