THE TIMES POLL : 62% Would Bar Services to Illegal Immigrants

Supported by virtually every segment of the electorate, Proposition 187--the ballot initiative denying most government services to illegal immigrants--would win by an overwhelming margin if the November election were held today, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Among likely voters, the sweeping measure is favored by 62% to 29%. Among all registered voters, the split is almost identical: 62% to 28%.

In recent weeks, a coalition of mainstream education, health and law enforcement organizations have launched a drive to defeat the measure, which includes a provision that proponents acknowledge runs counter to a U.S. Supreme Court decision mandating public education for illegal immigrants.

Poll Director John Brennan cautioned that the poll was taken before either side has begun an intensive ad campaign and noted that many voters remain unaware of the details of the measure. But Brennan said the current across-the-board support, fueled by a strong anti-immigrant tide, presents the opponents with a daunting task.

The Times poll showed that Proposition 187 is favored by Democrats as well as Republicans, middle-of-the-roaders and conservatives, and voters of both sexes and all age groups, income levels and educational backgrounds.

Even among the small base of Latino registered voters--Latinos account for less than 10% of the electorate but make up about 25% of California’s population--the restrictive measure was favored in the poll by 52% to 42%.

Moreover, the reason most often cited by poll respondents for supporting Proposition 187 was a strong gut feeling rather than any specific provisions in the measure. Among registered voters, 34% of those who favor it said they would vote for Proposition 187 because “something has to be done” about illegal immigration. The next most frequently cited reason--given by 18% of Proposition 187 supporters--was that the measure would stop immigrants from using public services.

“Much of the pro-187 momentum seems founded on sheer frustration rather than on specifics,” Brennan said. “It’s as if some people are saying: ‘Do something, anything, no matter what it is.’ ”

A second get-tough measure on the November ballot, the “three strikes” crime initiative that calls for prison sentences of 25 years to life for third-time felony offenders, also is finding strong support, according to the Times poll.

Among likely voters, Proposition 184, which mirrors state “three strikes” legislation that took effect earlier this year, is favored by 59% to 29%.

Despite the high levels of support for both measures, “there’s still a fairly high level of indecision,” Brennan said. “That leaves room for campaigns to move voters around.”

Respondents were asked a pair of questions about each initiative.

In the case of Proposition 184, 46% of likely voters who read only the ballot label said they had not heard about the measure or did not know how they would vote. Among those who were aware, supporters far outnumbered detractors, 42% to 12%.

With the measure on illegal immigration, 44% of likely voters said--before being read a longer summary--that they had not heard or read anything about the measure or didn’t know how they would vote. But those already knowledgeable backed it by a wide margin of 39% to 17%.

“Proposition 187 already has over twice as many core supporters as detractors,” Brennan said. “The opponents have their work cut out for them.”

The readings of 59% to 29% for Proposition 184 and 62% to 29% for Proposition 187 came after poll takers summarized the measures.

Less than two months before the election, two other major issues--Proposition 186, which calls for a state-run health system, and Proposition 188, the tobacco industry-backed initiative to establish statewide regulations on smoking restrictions--have made a weaker impression on voters. About two-thirds of likely voters have not heard enough about the measures to form an opinion.

The single-payer health initiative, which could involve $75 billion in government funds to administer a statewide health system, trails by a wide margin--23% to 63%. Those results were obtained after the measure was described.

The smoking initiative is a statistical tossup. Among likely voters, 47% are in favor and 45% opposed. Those figures were based on a description of ballot language. Respondents were not told that the measure is backed by tobacco giant Philip Morris. Other polls have shown that voters turn against the measure when so informed.

The Times Poll conducted telephone interviews with 1,503 adults statewide, including 1,165 registered voters and 721 likely voters, from Sept. 8 to Sept. 11. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is 3 points in either direction; for likely voters it is 4 points in either direction. The margin of error for certain subgroups of voters may be somewhat higher.

The responses to Proposition 187 and related questions make clear that immigration remains a hot issue in California, trailing crime and the economy and running neck and neck with education as the most frequently mentioned problem facing the state.

In a Times poll last September, 92% of registered voters said illegal immigration into California was a problem. In the new poll, the figure was 90%.

Moreover, 42% of the state’s registered voters say in the new poll that they believe that legal immigration into California is a problem.

Nonetheless, there is little evidence that Proposition 187--or for that matter any of the other ballot measures--is motivating people to vote. Only 6% of the voters said that Proposition 187 would particularly motivate them to show up to cast ballots, compared to 19% for the governor’s race between Republican incumbent Pete Wilson and Democratic challenger Kathleen Brown.

Only 11% of Latino registered voters said they would be particularly motivated to vote by Proposition 187, and the poll showed no indication of a surge in Latino voter registration. Nor did the poll show a bloom of motivation by those describing themselves as political conservatives.

Proposition 187, co-authored by a pair of former federal Immigration and Naturalization Service officials, would bar illegal immigrants from public schools, non-emergency health care and social services. To accomplish its goals, police, school officials and health providers would be required to ask people about their citizenship or immigration status and to report those they suspect of being illegal to the INS.

Sponsors acknowledge that the school provision flies in the face of a 1982 U.S. Supreme Court decision declaring that undocumented children are entitled to a public education. But they say the initiative would trigger a new legal challenge in which the court could reverse itself.

Sponsors say the measure would result in the deportation of some illegal immigrants, the “self deportation” of others who no longer qualify for government services and the establishment of an environment that would discourage further illegal immigration.

Opponents, including the state School Boards Assn., the California Teachers Assn. and PTA, counter that the measure does nothing to strengthen the nation’s borders, places at risk up to $15 billion annually in federal funding to California and would establish a “police state” mentality in which all immigrants and people of color or with accents would fall under suspicion.

By 75% to 18%, voters said they believe it is hard to tell the difference between illegal and legal immigrants in California. Regardless, 61% of those who said it was difficult to differentiate said they would vote for Proposition 187 anyway.

“It’s certainly a problem,” said one respondent, a Sacramento lawyer, 27, who is a registered Democrat and a third-generation Latino. “But sometimes people have to bear the brunt.

“I hate hearing myself say these things,” she continued. “But I just think something needs to be done.”

Poll respondents said the two greatest problems caused by illegal immigration were the use of government services and welfare--cited by 43%--and taking jobs from Americans--cited by 22%. Only 7% of respondents said they believed that illegal immigration causes no problems.

Most voters said they have had some contact with illegal immigrants, including 23% who said they have seen illegal immigrants on the street or in their neighborhood. Among those voters who had seen immigrants on the street, 71% said they would vote in favor of Proposition 187.

A total of 41% of registered voters said they have not come into contact with illegal immigrants in the last few years. Nonetheless, by 59% to 28%, those with no contact said they supported the measure.

Those who oppose the measure list reasons including the public school prohibition, beliefs that the initiative is “poorly written,” “inhumane” or “costs too much.”

“I’d rather spend the money on beefing up the border,” said one poll respondent, a 64-year-old bookkeeper from Glendale, who is a registered Democrat. “You have a problem, you go to the source, right?”

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,503 adults statewide, by telephone, Sept. 8-11. Included in the sample were 1,165 registered voters and 721 likely voters. Numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. Interviews were in English and Spanish. The sample was weighted slightly to conform more closely with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the total and registered voter samples is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by factors such as the wording of questions and the order in which they are presented.

* FOCUS ON IMMIGRATION: Wilson, Brown fight over illegal immigrants. A3

THE TIMES POLL: How They Would Vote

The Times Poll asked likely California voters their views on four controversial November ballot measures. Voters responded first to a simple reading of each initiative’s title and then to a more detailed description of each.

When When label is description Proposition Label Preference read is read Proposition 184, the Vote for 42% 59% Increased Sentences, Vote against 12% 29% Repeat Offenders Don’t know 46% 12% Initiative Statute (Three Strikes) Proposition 186, the Vote for 9% 23% Health Services, Taxes, Vote against 24% 63% Initiative Constitutional Don’t know 67% 14% Amendment (Health Services) Proposition 188, the Vote for 15% 47% Smoking and Tobacco Vote against 22% 45% Products, Local Don’t know 63% 8% Preemption, Statewide Regulation Initiative (Smoking)

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PROPOSITION 187

Proposition 187, the Illegal Aliens, Ineligibility for Public Services, Verification and Reporting Initiative (SOS)

When label is read When description is read Vote for 39% 62% Vote against 17% 29% Don’t know 44% 9%

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Why are you voting for Proposition 187? (Asked for those voting for; up to two replies accepted*) Registered voters We’ve got to do something about illegal immigration: 34% Stop illegal immigrants from using public services: 18% Citizens can’t get benefits: 14% Save millions by denying services to illegal immigrants: 13% Illegal immigrants are bankrupting the state: 13% ***

Why are you against Proposition 187? (Asked for those voting against; up to two replies accepted*) Registered voters Will put children out of school and into the streets: 13% It’s inhumane: 12% It will cost too much: 12% It’s poorly written/won’t work/doesn’t solve problems: 12% It violates federal law/the state will lose federal funds: 10% * Note: These are the top volunteered responses.

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll