As Raft Fleet Shrinks, U.S. Aims at Castro’s Weaknesses : Cuba: Washington urges increased contacts. Proposal could unleash a wave of civilians to influence public opinion and force policy changes.

As Cubans switched their attention Tuesday from rafts to visas in ongoing bids to flee to the United States, the Clinton Administration deliberated new policies to undermine the flagging regime of President Fidel Castro.

As part of an agreement with Washington, Havana belatedly moved Tuesday to prevent Cubans from taking to makeshift rafts for the treacherous 90-mile journey to Florida. For the first time, police patrolled the beaches to prevent rafters from taking off and to prevent potential migrants from bringing raft-making materials to the shores.

Beaches were bare and no arrests were reported, signaling that the crisis may be over, at least for now.

After intercepting 1,000 more Cubans on Sunday and 283 Monday, the U.S. Coast Guard reported picking up 134 rafters by Tuesday evening. Instead, hundreds pressing to leave Cuba for the United States flooded the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, drawn by the U.S.-Cuban agreement last week to increase American visas for Cubans to about 20,000 a year.

To heighten pressure on Cuba, the Administration wants to increase contacts and exchanges between the United States and the Cuban people, primarily by making it easier for Americans to travel to Cuba for educational, cultural, humanitarian or religious purposes, according to senior U.S. officials.

In effect, the proposal could end up doing to Castro what he tried to do to the United States--unleash a wave of civilians to influence public opinion and force policy changes.

Groups of reporters might visit Cuban journalists to discuss freedom of the press, for example, while religious organizations might visit their counterparts and other non-governmental charities could travel to Cuba to provide humanitarian goods or services.

The proposal seeks to use a section of the 1992 Cuban Democracy Act that imposes an economic embargo on the Cuban government but also encourages humanitarian assistance and exchange of information and ideas with Cubans.

All Americans traveling to Cuba are required to get a license from the Treasury Department or face a penalty of up to $50,000. Defining who and what missions qualify for a Treasury license is at the top of a list of ideas and options to encourage stronger American contacts and exchanges with Cubans.

Since the Cuban Democracy Act was passed, Washington has licensed $50-million worth of humanitarian goods provided by American groups directly to the Cuban people, according to the State Department.

Also under consideration is allowing a Cuban press office to open in New York in exchange for the opening of a U.S. news operation in Havana.

Contacts between Cubans and Americans are likely to increase with an expected agreement on direct telephone links.

Administration officials, expressing confidence that Cuba has now entered a final, transitional phase, said that they do not plan any major changes in strategy.

The Administration intends to hang particularly tough on any Cuban overtures to open talks on the embargo or on a return to normal relations, Administration sources said.

“Our policy is not to change the Aug. 20 sanctions or the embargo unless and until there are significant and irreversible changes in the area of democracy and respect for human rights. Then we can talk and take carefully calibrated actions,” said Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Michael Skol, who was the chief U.S. negotiator at the talks last week.

President Clinton ended commercial flights to Cuba and barred Cuban Americans from sending any money to relatives in Cuba on Aug. 20.

U.S. experts on Cuba said that the current worst-case scenario is that the chronic deterioration of life in Cuba will cause simmering tension on the island to erupt into violence.

“Now, we have the big bang theory: after a change (of leadership in Cuba), we’ll have relations. But the challenge is to avert a long, violent transition,’ said Bernard Aronson, assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs in the George Bush Administration.

“We should now be laying out a specific path for Cuba to overcome its crisis by creating real incentives for reform.”

The U.S. incentives should include a willingness to eventually withdraw from Guantanamo Bay, engage in confidence-building measures to reassure the Cuban military of U.S. intentions, gradually relax the U.S. economic embargo and, finally, ease Cuba’s entry into the North America Free Trade Agreement.