NEWS ANALYSIS : Chaos Likely Without Peaceful Transition

When former President Jimmy Carter, Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.) and retired Gen. Colin L. Powell met with Haiti’s Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras on Saturday, the first item on their agenda was persuading the enigmatic general to give up and go into exile--but that wasn’t the only thing.

Indeed, setting a departure time and destination for Cedras and other members of Haiti’s military regime might prove to be the easiest part of Carter’s mission, Administration officials say.

Perhaps more difficult--and, in the long run, more important--is making sure that the Haitian rulers leave in such a way as to produce a peaceful transition of government, rather than a chaotic free-for-all that might still require U.S. forces to fight their way in.

“The way in which they would depart is not a simple thing,” a senior official said. “There are a lot of issues involved.”

High on the list, the Administration hopes Carter can persuade Cedras to order his troops not to resist U.S. forces when they land, thereby reducing the chance that other officers will launch guerrilla-style resistance to a U.S. invasion.

For the same reason, U.S. officials say they are willing to let any of Haiti’s corrupt and brutal officers corps flee into exile if they choose--not merely the top triumvirate of Cedras, Brig. Gen. Philippe Biamby and Lt. Col. Michel-Joseph Francois.

Many of those officers are presumably guilty of ordering killings and other atrocities against Haiti’s population, but Administration officials have tacitly accepted that letting them flee may be the necessary price of a peaceful outcome.

On the Haitian side of the table, Cedras wants a promise of amnesty for anyone who served his regime loyally. Until now, at least, exiled President Jean-Bertrand Aristide has offered only a limited amnesty, promising not to prosecute officers merely for their service or for supporting the military regime but maintaining the right to pursue them for common crimes against the people.

The negotiations in the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince thus revolve around a question even more important than whether Cedras and his colleagues leave: What happens in Haiti during the days and weeks to come?

Will its armed forces take the nation into a ruinous little war with the United States, or strike out against civilians in a final spasm of rage? Or will they cooperate with the change that the United States and the United Nations are demanding, including the return to power of the officers’ nemesis, Aristide?

And at the bottom line: If U.S. forces land in Haiti as planned, will they face what the Pentagon planners call a hostile environment or a permissive one?

Merely removing the top layer of the Haitian military doesn’t resolve the situation--and could even create new difficulties.

“That, in effect, would (be) the removal of whatever form of authority currently exists in Haiti, and it could likely be a very dangerous situation, so it doesn’t resolve the problem,” State Department spokesman Mike McCurry noted last week.

It was significant, officials said, that Cedras arranged for Carter, Nunn and Powell to meet with his entire nine-member high command. That suggested that Cedras wanted to assure his commanders that he would not make a deal behind their backs--and that he would hold out for something that would address their fears about survival after Aristide returns.

The exiled president has promised that he will seek “reconciliation” with those who supported the military regime, but the officers have no confidence in those statements and want strong U.S. guarantees that they, their aides and families will be safe. “They don’t believe Aristide, and they never will,” one official said.

At the same time, Cedras himself has told visitors that he will insist on “dignity” in any negotiated solution.

That apparently means more than just military ceremony. Cedras has spoken increasingly of running for president in Haiti’s next election at the end of 1995 and has asked for a promise that he can return to the country to run.

Those conditions could put Clinton in the uncomfortable position of suddenly building up the political legitimacy of a man he denounced again on Saturday as a “brutal dictator.”

Senior officials have said that they want to move Cedras and his colleagues “as far away as possible” from Haiti to prevent them from interfering with the restoration of democracy.

Nevertheless, a senior official said, the Administration is “willing to talk about” Cedras’ political ambitions as long as the general is willing to step down from power and allow Aristide to return now.

U.S. officials acknowledge that there is one large factor in these negotiations that they do not fully understand: the psychology of Cedras and his cohorts.

Cedras has reportedly swung back and forth during the past weeks and days, sometimes suggesting he is ready to step down, then reversing course and insisting he will fight to the death.

Cedras’ wife, Yannick Prosper, the daughter of one of Haiti’s wealthiest men, “has been a bad influence on him,” bolstering his hard-line tendencies, one official said.

Francois, the Port-au-Prince police commander, has reportedly urged a compromise, even though his forces have been charged with many of the most brutal atrocities.

U.S. officials said his wife and children have already fled the country and are sitting out the crisis in the neighboring Dominican Republic.

But Biamby, the army chief of staff, has been playing a hard-line role, at least publicly. “Rumors of any compromise are totally false,” he declared Saturday.

Times staff writer David Lauter in Washington contributed to this report.