CANADA WATCH : Separation’s High Cost

Despite the recent victory in Quebec’s provincial parliamentary elections of the separatist Parti Quebecois, a referendum on secession could well find most Quebecers voting for continued federation with the rest of Canada. Here’s why.

Canada is a country on the international A-list--one of the G-7 nations, the elite group of seven major industrialized powers, and a member of NATO. A nation that with some reason styles itself as a European state on North American soil, Canada has played an influential, mediating role in international deliberations on security and economics. Because its relations with Mexico are so much calmer than those of the United States, Canada has been particularly important as a balancing factor in post-NAFTA North America.

But what if Quebec secedes? Neither Quebec nor English Canada alone would be large enough for G-7 or NATO membership. As for NAFTA, neither Quebec nor English Canada could bargain from the kind of strength that federated Canada has enjoyed. In the end, that’s why most Quebecers will choose federation. And that, clearly, is the outcome most Americans favor.

English Canadians, resentful of the special cultural treatment Quebec has received, occasionally drift toward a huffy “Who needs you anyway?” attitude. But Canada does need Quebec; and if a measure of special treatment for French culture is the price of continued federation, English Canadians should find the will to pay it. For both Canadas, the cost of accommodation will be far lower, in the long run, than the cost of separation.