A Moment of Triumph : But Many Worrisome Questions Remain Concerning Haiti

It was a very close call.

The margin by which the United States averted an outright military invasion of Haiti can literally be measured in minutes. Airplanes carrying paratroopers of the 82nd Airborne Division were already on their way to Port-au-Prince when Haiti’s military dictators finally accepted U.S. demands that they voluntarily step down or be ousted by force. Their apparent agreement should, everyone hopes, finally allow the first popularly elected president in Haiti’s history, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, to return to office three years after he was ousted in a bloody coup that was condemned around the world--and that sent desperate Haitians fleeing into exile, most of them to the United States as illegal immigrants.

President Clinton and other Administration officials, most especially his three peace envoys to Haiti--former President Jimmy Carter, retired Army Gen. Colin L. Powell and Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.)--can certainly feel a genuine sense of achievement, even triumph, in this last-minute accord. They have at least averted the bloodshed that could have occurred if an all-out invasion had begun this morning as scheduled, in the hours before dawn.

But that said, it must be pointed out that the deal reached by the trio of U.S. negotiators with the Haitian junta is fraught with uncertainty and risk. To what extent will the demands of the Haitian economy and its unstable public security put new burdens on the United States forces and Treasury? Finalizing the details could take as long as a month, and Haiti could still get very dangerous for thousands of American troops. They will begin coming ashore today, in broad daylight and now, thankfully, facing no official hostile fire.

The concern about what might happen in Haiti in the weeks to come springs less from any flaws in the accord reached with the Haitian junta than from the nature of the people with whom the United States struck this last-minute diplomatic bargain.

One year ago this same junta reached a similar agreement with Aristide, under U .N. auspices. It was signed with great fanfare and hope at Governor’s Island, N.Y. Among other things, that 1993 agreement called for the resignation of Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras, the Haitian army commander who led the coup against Aristide. It also included an amnesty for Cedras and other Haitian military men so that they would not be prosecuted for their role in the coup and the brutal oppression of Aristide supporters.

Despite the generosity of the Governor’s Island agreement, the deceptive Cedras and two other top leaders of the Haitian junta, Gen. Philippe Biamby and Port-au-Prince Police Chief Michel-Joseph Francois, ultimately reneged. They refused to step down, refused to allow Aristide’s return and eventually used mobs of Haitian thugs to turn away ships carrying unarmed U.N. troops who were to enforce the agreement.

The current standoff with the United States, which is not acting unilaterally against Haiti but enforcing a U. N. Security Council resolution passed after the Governor’s Island accord collapsed, would never have come about if Cedras had kept his word one year ago. So among the many questions that remain to be answered, the biggest is this: What guarantee is there that Cedras, Biamby and Francois will keep their word?

Granted, as Defense Secretary William Perry said at a White House briefing late Sunday, the presence of 15,000 well-armed American troops can and should have a certain persuasive effect. Indeed. But that persuasive pressure stems from the unstated threat that force can still be used against the junta, if things comes to that. But the use of force could throw off the timetable for restoring Aristide to power and starting the vital flow of U.S. and global aid to Haiti.