CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS / 49th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT : ‘Ground Zero’ of Democrat, GOP Battle

As a surfer and a politician, Brian Bilbray prides himself on being able to catch a wave at precisely the opportune moment.

These days Bilbray, a three-term county supervisor, thinks he has grabbed the biggest wave of his career: a tubular monster he can ride all the way to Washington.

He’s a Republican, an unrestrained basher of President Clinton, a hard-liner on illegal immigration, and a joyful signatory to the GOP candidates’ pledge to cut taxes and slash spending.

Bilbray is confident he can topple first-term Rep. Lynn Schenk (D-San Diego) in an economically diverse district where voter registration is split nearly evenly between Republicans and Democrats and where Clinton’s approval rating has plunged 20 points recently.

Bilbray, 43, even has a campaign slogan he figures is a killer: “If you like Clinton, you’ll love Schenk.”

Schenk, 49, an attorney with two decades of local political connections and a fund-raising ability that is nonpareil, refuses to concede an inch of political turf.

As soon as Bilbray signed the Republican pledge--in a ceremony in San Diego with House Speaker-in-waiting Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.)--Schenk had a gibe of her own, aimed at the fact the pledge is redolent of early Reaganism.

“If you like voodoo economics, you’ll love Brian Bilbray,” she said.

Welcome to politics 1994 in the 49th Congressional District, where the competing stratagems of the national political parties are on display in their purest form.

The Republican challenger hopes to capitalize on Clinton’s falling popularity and to appeal to voters who are angry and want to “send a message” to Washington. The Democratic incumbent insists that Clinton has gotten a bum rap and, besides, the race is a local affair, not a national referendum.

Nationwide, Republican leaders are predicting the capture of two dozen or more seats held by Democrats in the House of Representatives. A shift of 40 would give Republicans control of the House for the first time in 40 years.

Along with Schenk, Republicans are also optimistic about defeating three other first-term House Democrats by tying them to Clinton: Anna Eshoo of Atherton, Dan Hamburg of Ukiah and Jane Harman of Rolling Hills.

As part of an outreach to Latinos, the GOP is putting money and expertise behind Mary Alice Acevedo in her uphill fight against first-term Rep. Bob Filner of San Diego.

And sensing a Republican landslide, party faithful are dreaming of beating one or more of four longtime Democratic incumbents: Anthony C. Beilenson of Woodland Hills, George E. Brown Jr. of Colton, Vic Fazio of West Sacramento and Richard H. Lehman of North Fork in Madera County.

Beyond the President’s approval problems, California Republicans are counting on the historical trend of the party in power to lose seats in midterm elections and also the coattail effect of believing they have a strong Republican candidate at the top of the ticket, Gov. Pete Wilson.

In 1992, Republican candidates were damaged when President George Bush abandoned California as a lost cause and concentrated the party’s resources elsewhere, Republicans say.

“That hurt us very badly in several very close congressional races,” said Jeannie Austin, co-chairwoman of the Republican National Committee as she began a trip through California last week.

The 49th Congressional District, more than any other in California, has been picked by Republicans as one where the anti-Clinton, anti-incumbency mood can spell a Republican takeover. Gingrich, Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.), Jack Kemp, and Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour have all visited the district to help Bilbray.

“We’re not just targeted,” Bilbray said, “we’re ground zero.”

Indeed, strictly from the numbers, the district, which includes Imperial Beach, Coronado and the northern half of San Diego, looks like a prime spot for a Republican challenger. By voter registration, the district is 42% Republican, 39% Democrat and 19% other affiliations.

Politics, however, is more than numbers. “Anyone who looks at registration and thinks this is a Republican district doesn’t know anything about San Diego County,” said John Kern, a Republican political consultant in San Diego.

Schenk is expected to outspend Bilbray by at least 2 to 1. Bilbray describes his underfunded campaign as “guts versus bucks.”

In 1992, competing for an open seat in a newly redrawn district, Schenk outspent her Republican opponent Judy Jarvis, a political unknown, by 7 to 1 and won by 51% to 43%. Political professionals found the race surprisingly close, given Schenk’s lopsided advantage in money, name identification and political savvy.

As she fights for a second term, Schenk rejects any suggestion that she is running away from the President. And like the President, she blames the media, particularly the talk show firebrands, for “creating a climate of discontent.”

Still, the only reference to the President in Schenk’s two television ads is not a positive one.

“Lynn Schenk stood up to the President and sponsored the balanced budget amendment,” the narrator says in one of the commercials. “Lynn Schenk: doing what’s right for San Diego. “

And when Hillary Rodham Clinton came to San Diego on Sept. 9 for a fund-raiser in La Jolla, Schenk was nowhere to be seen. Schenk, who lives in La Jolla, said that she was in Washington on legislative business.

Schenk insists that her fortunes are not tied to Clinton’s. “I beat the President by 9% to 10% last time,” she said, a reference to the fact that Clinton gathered only 43% of the vote in the 49th District.

The Bilbray campaign hopes to pummel Schenk with her vote in favor of the Clinton budget that raised taxes on couples earning more than $180,000 and her vote against an ethics investigation of Rep. Dan Rostenkowski (D-Ill.).

Of course being a member of the party in power also has its advantages, and Schenk is quick to cite the grants and contracts she has delivered, a list that has won praise from even rock-ribbed members of the Chamber of Commerce.

“No first-term congressperson has ever delivered as much for San Diego, or tackled such difficult issues, as Lynn Schenk,” said business leader Mel Katz, a Republican and major supporter of Wilson’s.

The National Organization for Women has Schenk at the top of its list for contributions and assistance in getting out the vote. On crime, both candidates boast of being tough as nails. But Bilbray may have an edge on the district’s newest hot-button issue: illegal immigration.

In 1980, Bilbray, then a lifeguard-turned-councilman in Imperial Beach, commandeered a skip-loader and, in defiance of federal environmental officials, built a berm to keep the Tijuana River from spewing sewage onto San Diego beaches. The episode made him a local celebrity, and Bilbray has made the skip-loader an emblem for his damn-the-bureaucrats style of politics.

Schenk is convinced that Bilbray’s fiery rhetoric about illegal immigration and government spending does not fit the district. “This is a moderate-centrist district,” she said, “and I’m a moderate-centrist person. Brian Bilbray is much more extreme.”

Bilbray finds a beachy metaphor to explain Schenk’s situation.

“She came in with the Clinton tide,” Bilbray said, “and she’s going out with the Clinton tide.”