COVER STORY : Advanced Lesson in Poly Sci : 2 Former Professors Are in Tight Race for 38th Congressional Seat

As hard-charging Republicans across the country talk optimistically about marching back to Washington with big gains in the House of Representatives--possibly even a majority--there’s one Southeast-area contest where the GOP is in a struggle to hold onto one of its own.

Rep. Steve Horn (R-Long Beach) faces a spirited challenge from Cypress College associate professor Peter Mathews, 42, a Democrat who is vying to become the first American of East Indian descent in Congress since 1963.

Democrats say they smell an upset in the 38th Congressional District, which includes Long Beach, Signal Hill, Lakewood, Bellflower, Paramount, Downey and parts of San Pedro and Wilmington. Not only do registration figures favor the party in the district, but Mathews has raised enough money to run a strong campaign and has galvanized a corps of youthful volunteers.

Seasoned political observers, however, are skeptical. They note that Horn, in winning the seat two years ago, showed that his generally moderate views are attractive to many registered Democrats. And since taking office, he has developed a reputation for paying attention to local issues.

Political analyst Charles E. Cook Jr., the Washington-based editor of the Cook Political Report, says Mathews’ ability to raise money means “he’s a guy who’s credible. But Cook adds: “It doesn’t establish him as a winner.”

He still rates Horn as the likely victor. “There’s a phrase I keep finding myself plugging in here,” Cook says of Mathews’ chances. “In any other year. . . .”

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Still, Democratic campaign officials contend that Horn is one of only a handful of GOP congressmen who are vulnerable in what is widely being portrayed as a banner Republican year.

Said an official of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington: “We’ve got a savvy campaigner in a district that is becoming more multiethnic. This is definitely one we’re keeping our eye on.”

Mathews says Horn’s opposition to social spending places him out of touch with his district. “Can Horn really represent the middle class and working class people of the district, given his philosophy?” Mathews asks.

Horn, 63, a former president of Cal State Long Beach with longstanding ties to the district, remains quietly confident.

“I’ve kept every promise,” Horn says, “and I’ve worked hard to help the country and the people of our district.”

Horn’s son and campaign manager, Stephen Horn Jr., concedes that Mathews is a strong challenger but contends he’s no match for the incumbent. His father, Horn Jr. says, benefits from having views that are closer to those of district residents than are Mathews’.

“A lot of people who logically should be with the Democrat are not,” Horn Jr. says. “A lot of Democrats are either with (the elder Horn) or they’re neutral.”

Also on the ballot are Libertarian Lester W. Mueller and Peace and Freedom candidate Richard K. Green, who together garnered only 355 votes of more than 70,000 cast in the June primary.

For a year now, ever since Mathews declared his candidacy, his campaign operatives have been studying the numbers and Horn’s record, and they like what they see.

For one thing, Democrats have a distinct edge in registration in the district--51%, compared to the Republicans’ 36%. Many of the Democrats are newly registered and liberal-leaning, Mathews contends.

Local Democrats add that registration efforts in the past year have concentrated on Long Beach, with its campuses and its ethnic voters, rather than on the more conservative cities to the north.

In the June primary, Mathews actually outpolled Horn by more than 7,000 votes, though the Democrat was running unopposed and the incumbent faced a challenger.

At the same time, the Democrats say, Horn may have hurt himself by crossing party lines to vote for the Clinton Administration’s crime bill, and by defying labor unions and Ross Perot supporters to back the North American Free Trade Agreement.

His support of the crime bill could hurt him with members of his own party, Mathews supporters speculate (while conceding that it could bolster his Democratic support).

Horn’s NAFTA vote, the Democrats say, has alienated the district’s Perot voters--most of whom supported Horn last time--and has prompted especially enthusiastic labor support for Mathews, who has taken an anti-NAFTA stand.

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All of this amounts to a trend-bucking race in this widely proclaimed GOP year, contends Mathews’ campaign manager, Noah Mamet. “What we have is one of only eight or 10 (House) seats (across the nation) where a Democrat stands to beat a Republican incumbent,” he says.

But various political observers insist that such factors as the Democratic advantage in voter registration may be of little significance in a district where many Democrats are conservatives who have not hesitated to vote Republican in the past.

In Lakewood and Downey, for example, many Democrats were strong supporters of Ronald Reagan. Democratic voters in those cities often have more of a traditional attachment to their party than a practical one, says Donald Waldie, Lakewood’s public information officer. Increasingly, says Waldie, these Democrats are becoming “more conservative in practice if not Republican in registration.”

In fact, Horn won election two years ago with strong Democratic support, outdrawing even the party’s presidential candidate, Bill Clinton.

Some prominent local Democrats, citing Horn’s strong focus on local concerns the past two years, are sitting out the race. “I’m trying to stay out of it,” said one well-known Long Beach Democrat. “I’m not super-impressed with Mathews. I think Horn has worked his ass off for us.”

Horn was a visible leader in the successful effort to keep the Long Beach Naval Shipyard in operation as the federal base closing commission announced shutdowns elsewhere. He was also outspoken in fighting cutbacks in orders for McDonnell Douglas’ C-17 military cargo jets, which are made at a Long Beach plant.

As for the NAFTA vote, despite the remarks by some disgruntled Perot supporters that “we’ll remember in November,” it appears to have been overshadowed by other issues. In fact, United We Stand America, the political watchdog group that grew out of Perot’s 1992 presidential campaign, gives Horn a “B” rating on the basis of eight key congressional votes, according to a spokesman for the group in Dallas.

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Dorothy Edwards, a Long Beach clinical psychologist who is the district coordinator for United We Stand America, said that although the group does not endorse candidates, many local members are supporting Horn because of his stand in favor of campaign finance reform and other issues that are high on the Perot agenda.

“There are a few members who will go for Mathews because of NAFTA,” Edwards said. “I personally like many of the things that Horn has proposed.”

The 38th Congressional District--which cuts a broad swath between the Los Angeles and San Gabriel Rivers, from the Long Beach shoreline to the northern edge of Downey--is predominantly middle class and more than 75% white. It has been deeply affected by California’s lingering recession.

The district’s major employer, McDonnell Douglas Corp.’s Douglas Aircraft Co. in Long Beach, has laid off more than 30,000 workers since 1990. Meanwhile, the Long Beach Naval Station recently closed down, with the loss of about 1,000 jobs and an estimated annual economic impact of $1 billion. A major preoccupation within the district is saving the Long Beach Naval Shipyard from a new round of Defense Department cuts next year.

Forums featuring the two candidates have been low-key affairs, with disagreements about health care and economic policy couched in academic terms. But there are hints that things could turn nasty.

At a debate last week at Cal State Long Beach’s student union, Horn tweaked Mathews for the way the Democrat is financing his campaign.

Horn has adamantly refused contributions from political action committees, whereas Mathews has refused only corporate PAC money. Noting that Mathews has taken contributions from labor unions, Horn said: “He won’t take corporate money, but he’ll take anything else that’s loose on the floor.”

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Mathews struck back at Horn’s record at the school, charging that there had been budget deficits during Horn’s tenure as president.

“Why was he forced to resign because of budgetary problems?” Mathews demanded. “Why was he censured twice by the Academic Senate?”

Horn was ready for what he termed “a little slur.” He read a letter from the university’s controller, declaring “there was no deficit” in 1988, when Horn was accused of mismanagement by a review team of the Cal State trustees and forced to step down.

Mathews also attacked Horn’s endorsement last month of the so-called Contract With America, a 10-point list of issues that Republican congressional leaders said their party would push for if it gains control of the Senate and House. The issues included congressional term limits, welfare cuts and a stronger military, as well as support for a reduction in capital gains and corporate investment taxes.

Such measures, Mathews contended, would benefit the rich while forcing cuts in programs that serve the poor.

On economic issues, Horn favors tax incentives to promote innovative manufacturing ideas and strict caps on federal spending. Mathews wants to close “corporate tax loopholes” and squeeze more taxes out of the affluent--those who make $200,000 a year or more--to pay for a middle-class tax cut.

According to the most recent figures from the Federal Election Commission, Horn had raised $335,165 to Mathews’ $136,893 as of June 30. But Mathews’ campaign, which has been successfully tapping a national network of East Indian professionals, now has more cash on hand--$143,000--than any other Democratic congressional challenger in the state, according to Democratic campaign officials.

To his donors, Mathews emphasizes ethnic issues, criticizing Horn’s vote for an amendment to block foreign aid to India because of human rights violations. “Indian Americans need someone in Congress who understands Indian issues,” Mathews wrote in one appeal.

If he was elected, Mathews would be the first person of Indian heritage elected to Congress since Rep. Dalip Singh Saund (D-Imperial Valley), who served from 1957 to 1963.

Still, most political consultants aren’t impressed with Mathews’ chances.

“There are Democrats in the district, but very conservative Democrats,” says local consultant Jeff Adler. “People register that way because maybe their parents and grandparents were Democrats, but they’re just as happy voting for a Republican who’s reflective of certain conservative basic values.”

38th Congressional District

Cities: Long Beach, Lakewood, Bellflower, Paramount, Downey, Signal Hill, parts of San Pedro and Wilmington.

Registration: Democrat: 130,411 Republican: 94,331 American Independent: 4,165 Green Party: 723 Libertarian: 1,168 Peace and Freedom: 1,268 Other: 682 No preference: 24,769 Total: 257,517 *

Candidates: Occupation Democrat, Peter Mattews: College government professor Republican, Steve Horn: U.S. representative Peace and Freedom, Richard W. Green: Project manager Libertarian, Lester W. Mueller: Engineer