Picking Over Debris From a Tidal Wave

Gov. Pete Wilson can’t run for President. Kathleen Brown likely will think hard before running again for anything. And the Democratic Party should run in a different direction.

Some postscripts to the election:

It’s fantasy to think of California’s governor as a presidential candidate in 1996. Wilson now is high on every list of prospects. But there is no way he can run--at least as a loyal Republican--with a Democratic lieutenant governor (Gray Davis) poised to pounce on his office. It would be an embarrassing issue in every GOP primary.

“Some Republican!” his opponents would say. “Can you really trust a guy who would hand over our largest state to Jerry Brown’s former chief of staff?”

Wilson, in fact, publicly has ruled out running. But his name won’t be scratched from any lists, for several reasons:

He has a big base--a state with one-fifth of the electoral votes needed to capture the presidency. He has just staged an incredible comeback to win reelection. More than any other politician, he has become identified with the popular battle against illegal immigration and also has fought for welfare reform.

And beyond those reasons, pundits need names for their lists. They also need an excuse to fly to California, especially in winter. “We really ought to go out there and check up on Wilson,” they’ll tell their editors. “He’s on the ‘top tier’ list.”

Wilson’s year will be 2000, at age 67, if he has had a good second term and there’s an open race for the presidency. For that to occur, President Clinton needs to be reelected in 1996.

The gurus say it’s too early to close the book on Brown’s political career. But she didn’t show much promise in this election.

Not only did she lose by a whopping 15 points, women voted against her by nine points, a Times exit poll found. More Brown voters regarded her as “the lesser of two evils” than a candidate they liked. Their main reason for supporting her was “Wilson’s record.” Far fewer people cited her “ideas” and “leadership.”

Brown’s family--presumably brother Jerry--was heavy baggage. One in five said “the Brown family record” was a major influence on their vote, and 70% of these people backed Wilson.

The spin from the Brown camp is that she never had a chance because her money ran out and it was a Republican year. But her strategists spent an enormous amount, an estimated $24 million. And the size of her drubbing cannot be blamed entirely on a swing of the political pendulum.

Brown’s missteps in blowing a big lead could fill a book. But it boils down to her failing to articulate why she would have been a better governor than the incumbent. The suspicion is she never thought it through--that she decided to run two years ago when Wilson was at his weakest, believed voters would prefer anybody over him and didn’t take the time to sort out where she really wanted to lead the state.

She was relatively inexperienced, but Ronald Reagan was even less experienced when he beat her father 28 years ago. Reagan, however, was propelled by strong core beliefs. If Brown possesses such motivating forces, she kept them hidden.

Late in the campaign, I heard her at a Pasadena church speak passionately about the “epidemic” of teen-age pregnancy. She was convincing and moving. Unfortunately, another part of her speech was more typical: a boring treatise on government management.

Brown’s next political venture perhaps should be a run in Los Angeles County--for City Council or supervisor or mayor, if Richard Riordan moves up. Riordan for vice president in 1996? Governor in 1998?

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The Democratic Party keeps fighting for people who don’t vote.

The very poor--those making less than $20,000 a year--amounted to only 14% of the electorate. People earning more than $60,000 comprised 37%. Self-described liberals were 17%; conservatives 37%.

Latinos were 8%, blacks 5%, Asians 4% and whites 81%. “If Latinos wouldn’t turn out on Proposition 187, what will bring them into the political process?” wondered state Democratic Chairman Bill Press.

Whites voted for Wilson and for Proposition 187 by 26-point margins.

The Democrats’ liberal agenda--activist government based on income redistribution and Byzantine regulation--has not been selling in the ballot booths.

Voters--as if operating TV remotes--are “party surfing.” They’ll watch the GOP for awhile. And if they don’t like that program, their next stop may be a third party.

The first party to genuinely fight for middle-class and working-class voters wins.

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